We love and own Riviera direct. The Skyliner/compact footprint make it a huge plus for us, plus total usability of the rooms is great.
Poly 2.0 will be going on sale this year. You could buy resale now and hopefully all the speculating is correct that it's part of the Poly 1.0 association, or wait to see direct incentives so you could enjoy both parts of the resort; studios and new tower.
The blue card/direct benefits *may* be nice to have for APs and locking in points that are totally unrestricted for future resorts, although I am souring on this spiel from
DVC as they keep adding more resorts into existing ones, but that's my bugaboo, not yours.
BW/BC/HH/VB/OKW are expiring 2042. That's 18 years away. We bought in 2019 and can't believe it's already been five years. I wouldn't buy those resorts if there's even a glimmer of your family wanting to go when the kids are in their 20s or deeding it as part of your estate plan to the kiddos.
CFW are totally not my cup of tea at all, but they are going on sale 2/1 it sounds like. If that interests you, maybe consider that.
Are you interested in Animal Kingdom resale? You can probably get a great deal, and who doesn't like animals? Dining is excellent there, too.
Really, I have always been leery of totally going with SAP/SS/BLT points if you don't love those resorts. We are tied to the kids' schedules that are peak weeks, sounds like you are, too. People are freaking out about 11-month availability in December of 2024 at their HOME resorts and people walking reservations. If you are stuck going school vacations/holiday weeks, you'll need to be where you love.
Lastly, don't count on being in a studio forever with the kids. 1b/2b/3b are amazing, and it's impossible for us to go back to all sharing a room and not having a kitchen/laundry to get settled. Buy enough points to get a 1b where you really love to be. IF you have leftover points (you won't,) you can always do a longer/nicer/more frequent trip rotation.