Tropical Storm/Hurricane Laura -- probable travel disruption to Florida

[JimMIA]

Tropical Depression 13 is expected to become Tropical Storm Laura later today, and then Hurricane Laura Sunday night/Monday morning. Florida landfall as a Category 1 hurricane (74 mph sustained winds minimum) sometime Monday.

The current landfall projection is for somewhere in the Middle Keys, but ignore that for now. First of all, error margins are vast 4 days out, and secondly the disruption of travel plans happens well in advance of a hurricane.

Aircraft and crew repositionings usually happen before the onset of tropical storm force winds (39 mph). If you have flights into Florida this weekend or early next week, stay in close touch with your airline.

Here is the 11 AM NHC track forecast:



More important, here is the NHC Earliest Possible Onset of Tropical Storm Force Winds chart.

 

[joelkfla]

The 5pm advisory says tropical storm status is not expected until tomorrow. It could be named either Laura or Marco, depending on whether TD13 or TD14 is the first to reach TD strength.

 

[JimMIA]

Marco?



Polo!

 

[jlnten17]

We arrive the 27th. I know nothing about tropical storms as we are from the Midwest. Do I need to be concerned about my flight being affected?

 

[JimMIA]

We arrive the 27th. I know nothing about tropical storms as we are from the Midwest. Do I need to be concerned about my flight being affected?

On the 27th, probably not from THIS system. This system is expected to blow through or past Florida by the 25th and the weather behind a storm is usually gorgeous.

In the map below the two circles are two tropical disturbances. Both of them are expected to intensify into tropical storms (>39 mph winds), and one will be named Laura, the other Marco. The one we are talking about here is TD 13.

The other system just moving off the coast of Africa is the one that may or may not affect you. It's WAY too early to make any predictions about that one...although it is a little farther north than systems which usually affect Florida. But that can change.

 

[jlnten17]

On the 27th, probably not from THIS system. This system is expected to blow through or past Florida by the 25th and the weather behind a storm is usually gorgeous.

In the map below the two circles are two tropical disturbances. Both of them are expected to intensify into tropical storms (>39 mph winds), and one will be named Laura, the other Marco. The one we are talking about here is TD 13.

The other system just moving off the coast of Africa is the one that may or may not affect you. It's WAY too early to make any predictions about that one...although it is a little farther north than systems which usually affect Florida. But that can change.

View attachment 520372

Thank you!

 

[JimMIA]

Thank you!

Welcome. Just for reference, TD 13 is about 4 1/2 days away from Miami. It is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane and come ashore on Monday. That will change, of course -- but just to give you an idea.

So the orange X, if it turns into anything, is at least 11-12 days away...probably more.

 

[LadyBeBop]

Welcome. Just for reference, TD 13 is about 4 1/2 days away from Miami. It is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane and come ashore on Monday. That will change, of course -- but just to give you an idea.

So the orange X, if it turns into anything, is at least 11-12 days away...probably more.

I worry about the orange X (potential Hurricane Nana) hitting the Georgia/South Carolina border). We arrive at Hilton Head on the 30th.

 

[JimMIA]

I worry about the orange X (potential Hurricane Nana) hitting the Georgia/South Carolina border). We arrive at Hilton Head on the 30th.

It's way, way, WAY too early to have any idea where that one is going!

On TD 13, it is also having trouble organizing. The track has shifted slightly to the south, which will bring it close to both Hispaniola (with two 10,000 foot high mountains) and also the mountainous area of eastern Cuba.

TD 13 is now looking like it will pass through the middle Florida Keys and go into the Gulf of Mexico. It is now not forecast to reach hurricane strength until it gets into the Gulf.

 

[gatour]

I worry about the orange X (potential Hurricane Nana) hitting the Georgia/South Carolina border). We arrive at Hilton Head on the 30th.

As a life long Florida resident, I really don't pay attention when things are brewing of the coast of Africa. Way too early to know where it may end up. As TD's etc get closer to the Caribbean then I start paying attention and making decisions.

 

[joelkfla]

TD13 won the race:

905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 [AST is the same as EDT]​

​

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical​

Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm​

Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The​

aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the​

previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in​

the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that​

will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).​

​

I notice that at 8 am, Orlando was just outside the Cone of Uncertainty for the storm center. It should be further out at 11 am if the southerly jog holds true.

 

[JimMIA]

TD13 won the race:

905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 [AST is the same as EDT]​

​

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical​

Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm​

Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The​

aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the​

previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in​

the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that​

will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).​

​

I notice that at 8 am, Orlando was just outside the Cone of Uncertainty for the storm center. It should be further out at 11 am if the southerly jog holds true.

Agree. Just looked at some models and some of the most reliable ones show Laura moving right through the middle of both Hispaniola (Dominican Republic & Haiti) and Cuba. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba are both very mountainous, and if Laura follows that path, I don't see her surviving.

 

[LadyBeBop]

It's way, way, WAY too early to have any idea where that one is going!

Hey. It's never too early or late to worry. Even though my daughter isn't coming with us.