Tropical Storm Fay - TUESDAY 11 AM UPDATE in post #1

[JimMIA]

UPDATE: 11 AM, TUESDAY
As of 11 AM Tuesday, Tropical Storm Fay was ashore and approaching the western shore of Lake Okeechobee. The storm came ashore in the Cape Romano area south of Naples, between Marco Island and Everglades City, and is moving NNE at about 9 mph.

The storm is projected to continue NNE, passing the NW corner of Lake Okeechobee and crossing the Florida peninsula diagonally, eventually moving into the Atlantic Ocean around the Cape Canaveral area. That path means WDW will be in the weaker left-front quadrant of the storm, and Vero will be in the stronger right-front quadrant. However, the maximum winds are generously estimated at 60 MPH, so there should not be much damage. This will mostly be a rain event.

After passing out into the Atlantic, the storm will be influenced by a change in the overall weather pattern steering it. It is expected to turn to the NW and come ashore again near the Florida-Georgia border. The current maps show it returning to Florida around St. Augustine, but this turn is dependent on the movement of two systems, so the subsequent landfall point could vary quite a bit.

Folks at WDW can expect a very wet Tuesday, getting worse as the day progresses. It may be rainy on Wednesday as well, or at least for part of the day.

ETA: Tornado Watch - There is also a Tornado Watch in effect for all of South Florida and much of Central Florida until 4 PM this afternoon. If you draw a line from Daytona Beach to Lakeland (including both WDW and Vero) virtually all of the counties south of that line are included in the watch.

This is a WATCH, meaning conditions exist which could spawn tornados -- NOT a Warning, which would mean that tornados have actually been spotted.


For accurate info without media hype, visit the National Hurricane Center website: www.nhc.noaa.gov

You may also want to try www.wunderground.com/tropical which is Weather Underground's excellent site.

 

[henri + katie's mum]

I'm going Sunday. It better not mess with my vacation.

I was at WDW in Sept 1999 when Hurrican Floyd (I'm pretty sure that was the name) went through. I was leaving that morning and ours was one of the last flights out. It turned out not to be that bad.

I guess the big thing though is the making sure you can leave on your scheduled flight.

 

[JimMIA]

Yes. If you are at WDW, travel disruption would normally be much more of an issue than any danger from the storm. You have to remember that a) WDW is as far inland as you can get in Florida, and b) the buildings were built to withstand storms. Also, the Disney staff really shines during situations like that -- you'll be very well taken care of.

Generally, if you are inland you don't face much threat unless you're dumb enough to go outside during the storm.

If there's a prolonged power outage, you may be inconvenienced, but you won't be in any danger if you just stay indoors.

 

[bgraham34]

You will probably just get mostly rain which stinks in itself. Especially for nighttime fireworks.

 

[Tinker74]

Oh no...iam flying into orlando on saturday 23rd...please tell me this will be over by then.

 

[JimMIA]

Oh no...iam flying into orlando on saturday 23rd...please tell me this will be over by then.

That's impossible to say at this point, but it should be clear long before a week from tomorrow. As I said above, the models are all over the place at the moment. Some of them show the system moving pretty steadily (although there is no consensus on WHERE!), but others show it stalling in the Bahamas.

I think by Sunday or Monday, we'll have a much clearer idea of what's going to happen. It may just hit Hispaniola and beat itself to death in the mountains.

I'd keep an eye out, but I wouldn't be worrying yet.

 

[Tinker74]

Thanks Jim.....I remember this last year..me panic sticken over a hurricane forming...it ended up hitting Jamaica the day I flew into orlando.
Hopefully this one will avoid land and florida.

 

[DisFlan]

Thanks, Jim! It's nice to know you're here and on top of things for hurricane season. (We're going in late September.) Back when Wilma was a threat, your informed updates helped us decide to move our flight up a day and fly in before things closed down. We were snug and cozy at BWV when the storm went over, and the rest of our vacation was great.

DisFlan

 

[SINYMom]

While I very much appreciate the information, I can't say as I like it. We are set to arrive next Thursday morning, flying in from NYC. So I will add you weather link to my favorites (not really) and track the weather to keep up to date.

Thanks.

 

[JimMIA]

just bumping the update

 

[Tracy0729]

I am arriving on Sunday for disney okw then vero. I have a feeling my whole vacation will be ruined. Watch when I leave on Friday to sun will be back.

 

[JimMIA]

I am arriving on Sunday for disney okw then vero. I have a feeling my whole vacation will be ruined. Watch when I leave on Friday to sun will be back.

Naw. This is just a tropical storm. You may have one rainy day, but the weather will rapidly improve after the storm passes. And that's IF (and it's a big if) the storm even hits where you are. At this point, nobody really has any idea. This system has been NUTZ!

Your only issue would be if the weather messed up your travel plans.

 

[JimMIA]

Keep in mind that predicting tropical cyclone movements is very iffy.

The last estimate I saw was that the 3-day projections had varied as much as 225 miles from where NHC thought the system would be. That's about normal, but 225 miles is one heckuva a long way. If you're 100 miles from a storm, you won't feel anything except a little breeze and light rain.

And THIS storm has been much more unpredictable than any other system I've ever seen.

 

[PSC]

Thanks Jim!

It sure is nice to have friends who keep an eye out for the rest of us!

 

[Laxmom]

Thanks for the update, Jim. I remember last year, you were really helpful. We are cruising in a couple of weeks so I will be searching for your postings for the next couple of weeks!!

 

[marksniles]

We're renewing our vows on Monday at the Wedding Gazebo outside. Just let the rain hold off til Monday at 2pm!

 

[WEHAVEM]

Perfect timing for us, heading out of Manchester NH Tuesday 8/19 7:30 pm arriving MCO 10:30 pm...does anyone have any history with flying in to MCO during Tropical storm conditions? so far it looks like our flight into MCO is right in line with the time frame that they are currently giving for the storm to hit the middle part of Florida

The problem I have right now is that my wife wants me to cancel everything right now, I'm trying to hold off as long as possible...I've got my fingers crossed, we need some Disney Magic

 

[JimMIA]

bumping the 8 AM Sat update

The update is in Post #1 at the top of the thread.

 

[chatchdvc]

Thanks Jim!
This is a wacky storm, for sure.

Flying in tomorrow morning, we'll just keep checking for updates until then.

 

[JimMIA]

If you are flying into Florida, keep in touch with your airline. When a storm approaches, it is not just the storm conditions that impact the airports.

The airlines not only stop flying into storm areas, they also have to reposition their aircraft and crews. And of course, they have to do that in compliance with all of the safety regulations.

Therefore, they may stop flying into a storm area 24-48 hours prior to the anticipated impact of the storm. Instead, their focus may shift to getting their aircraft and crews OUT.

Because of the unpredictability of this particular storm, the airlines may not know until Monday what they are doing.