Touringplans crowd calendar changes Summer 2021

[EMHDad]

I just got an email on the crowd level changes for my trip 6/22-29/2021. They were all cut in half, now posting 1-4.

I am curious on thoughts people have. Is that just a computer calculation based on this summer, and the math is drastically askewed? Or is there more of a high expectation that the Covid restrictions will continue deep into 2021?

I know this is just pure speculation. So, taking all with a grain of salt. My hope was that if a vaccine was ready by, say March 2021, that normal operations might start showing up in June 2021.

I torn, because the lower crowds seems great. However, no 60FP, No EMH, and i ask myself 'Why am I staying on property and paying 3x the cost of somewhere else. Also, will I miss the fireworks, parades, meet and greets that enhance the experience? Anyway, enough rambling.

 

[wilkydelts]

I saw this last night as well and found some information on what they are basing these times on. I thought it was a glitch because everyday I am attending in late October is now a 1. They are basing these adjustments on the following:

"This Crowd Calendar update is a full update going through September 2021. To make such a long-range forecast we are making some assumptions:

• Demand will stay low for Florida theme park travel
• Disney will keep capacity at low levels
• Capacity will slowly increase starting in November
• The risk of COVID-19 infection stays the same
• All health and safety measures stay in place"

They said they do not expect to see any 4 or 5 rated days until Spring Break of 2021

 

[Ahabart]

I thought it was an unusual change, but as wilkydelts posted, they have made adjustments based on anticipated attendance. All of my early October dates went from a 3-6 to a 1. However, I am taking the crowd predictions with a grain of salt at this point due to the other changes that are affecting the crowd "feel". With many restaurants and stores closed, shows cancelled, and fast passes paused, many here have reported the feels-like crowd to be higher than those calculations would suggest. A 1 on the crowd scale in a Covid environment seems like a far cry from a 1 during normal times.

 

[Ermise]

It should be noted that the TouringPlans crowd calendar is based on expected wait times for attractions, not on how crowded the park feels.

 

[mkb3]

I think at a 5 Fast Passes should be back. I've gone on pre Covid 5 days and wait times were up.

 

[vinotinto]

My opinion on this is:

The same way that the dining plans became less about saving money and more about the psychological benefits of pre-paying meals and not paying during your vacation, staying onsite will be less about perks or benefits and more about the psychological benefits of being in the Disney bubble.

And the same way that many choose not to pre-pay their meals through the DDP, many will also choose not to stay onsite.

 

[JM23457]

I just got an email on the crowd level changes for my trip 6/22-29/2021. They were all cut in half, now posting 1-4.

I am curious on thoughts people have. Is that just a computer calculation based on this summer, and the math is drastically askewed? Or is there more of a high expectation that the Covid restrictions will continue deep into 2021?

I know this is just pure speculation. So, taking all with a grain of salt. My hope was that if a vaccine was ready by, say March 2021, that normal operations might start showing up in June 2021.

I torn, because the lower crowds seems great. However, no 60FP, No EMH, and i ask myself 'Why am I staying on property and paying 3x the cost of somewhere else. Also, will I miss the fireworks, parades, meet and greets that enhance the experience? Anyway, enough rambling.

Covid issues, cutbacks & restrictions will probably be with us until at least the beginning of next summer. Vaccines typically take much longer than a year to produce & certify as safe, and coronaviruses in particular don't tend to respond well to vaccines.

That said, Disney will probably have fireworks by next summer. Shanghai Disney has already resumed them now. Disney knows they're a big attraction for families & they can't live off no profits forever.

Modified character meals are already available at some restaurants. By June, probably all of the non-face-character dining (still modified) will have resumed.

I wouldn't count on close-up character interactions until this is really, truly over (or at least until the press & public are really, truly over worrying about it): maybe 2022 or 2023. Same goes for unrestricted crowds at the parks.

If you stay at Disney resorts only for the park touring-related perks, then I agree you should stay offsite right now. If location, theming & resort amenities such as Disney restaurants, pools with waterslides & resort activities are the draw, then continue to stay onsite.

 

[MarkS2112]

Nobody really knows so you can’t put stock in any projections like this because it’s all conjecture based on the unknown. Take for what it is and I would not base much on it this far out.