Touring Plan, Crowd Change = Freaking Out

[NaturalNine]

Hi All

Just over 3 weeks away from flying from Australia to the USA and I've received an email from Touring Plans, pretty much every planned day has been impacted with a fairly dramatic rise in expected crowd levels.

I planned this trip specifically these dates because it seemed to be the most quiet part of the holiday period, but now it seems it won't be that quiet after all

Am I over reacting? Or is this going to give me some major issues?

Thanks in advance

Below is the prediction changes, as well as my plan

Walt Disney World Crowd Tracker Updates!

• December 09, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 7.
• December 09, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 2 to 3.
• December 09, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• December 10, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 2 to 4.
• December 10, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 1 to 3.
• December 10, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.
• December 11, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• December 11, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 2 to 5.
• December 11, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 4.
• December 12, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 7.
• December 12, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 7.
• December 12, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.
• December 12, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• December 13, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 8 to 7.
• December 13, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.
• December 13, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.
• December 13, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.
• December 14, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 8 to 7.
• December 14, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• December 14, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.
• December 15, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.
• December 15, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 3.
• December 16, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.
• December 16, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.
• December 16, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.
• December 17, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• December 17, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.
• December 17, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.
• December 17, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.
• December 18, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 7.
• December 18, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.

 

[rcraw45425]

I also received an update to my hours for my December trip, as well as my March trip and even dates I have earmarked for June for a Medical conference my hubby is considering. When I try to log into the Disney sites, both regular and My Disney experience it keeps booting back to the main Disney World homepage without me being signed in

 

[Nancyg56]

Mine have changed as well. Oh well.....

I would plan on at least one more change as we get a little closer to our dates. Our trip also begins on the 9th, so I am a little nervous as well. I think you just make sure you have your FP in place, arrive as early as you find reasonable, and modify your expectations. Last year we went in October and I was so used to that open park atmosphere. Holy Yikes! Had I realized that the crowds would be greater i would not have felt so blindsided, and would have made an internal adjustment for my own expectation. It was still fine, but a little culture shock at the time.

 

[Mac30188]

I don't think it is as bad as it reads, and I wouldn't freak out about something that you really have no control over. While the crowds may be a little higher than you expected, it still looks like fun trip. If I recall 1 point level is an increase of waiting times of 6 minutes, so even though it looks severe, it probably is not be that big a change. There are no 9s and 10s on the list so at no point does it sound like a prediction of "unbearable", and actually the two 8s became 7s. While I am sure you are disappointed in the change, the silver lining is at least you are hearing in advance so you can adjust expectations. My summary conclusion of reading that list is, you were hoping for a dead period trip but there will be modest crowds. Be aware of it, shrug it off, and go have a blast!!

 

[alliecat523]

Agree. Those crowd levels don't look too terribly bad to me at all. Then again, I'm use to going at high crowd level times. These are also best guesses on crowds. While typically not too far off, what you see could be different than what is predicted.

 

[njmousefest]

Got the same for a June - July trip. Everything went up one notch. Still waiting for easywdw to come out with their june and july calendar so I can compare. But the reservations are made and we know it's a crowded time, so we extended to a leisurely 2 weeks. We'll get our fast passes, spend time relaxing at the pool, and hop to where it makes sense (all while avoiding July 4th - I was ruled out of that day).

 

[bwang123]

We went during a similar time a few years ago and the parks really only started getting crowded towards the end. I wouldn't hesitate to do the same time again.

 

[Stubbzilla]

They keep changing what their numbers mean. It may just be a number change within their own system, not that the park will necessarily actually have more people in it.

 

[leebee]

I wish we had your updated crowd levels! We were in Disney Studios on Sunday, 11/8/15, predicted to be a 7 but observed as an 8 by touringplans.com. We arrived at DS around 9:40am so we went straight to RnRC, which was DOWN. Rats!! We had a late breakfast cupcake at Starring Rolls, and then DD rode Tower of Terror twice (FP+). We scooted over to RnRC which showed a 20 minute wait, but it was more like 40 minutes, then over to Beauty and the Beast, where we sat in about the 10th row. We had lunch at the Backlot Express around 1pm, the used out FP+ for Little Mermaid show and FP+ for TSMM. Then... saw the Muppets and got a fast pass for TGMR for around 5:45pm. We did Star Tours twice, saw the 5pm show of Indiana Jones, and then rode GMR with our fastpass. We hopped the boat to Epcot, had dinner at the Biergarten, and went back to DHS to see the Osborne Lights. We were longer at Biergarten than expected (7:30 ADR, didn't get out until 9:10) so it was close, but DHS was open until 10pm so we spent about 20 minutes at Osborne lights. Considering the crowds (at one point, the line for Muppets was outside into the courtyard), I think we did a lot. It was a busy, full day!

 

[Dis703]

Really, those changes don't seem so alarming to me. And remember they are just predictions not guarantees. We had several days in May that turned out to be lower than the crowd predictions. For me anything 6 and below is no big deal and it looks like most of your trip will remain in that range. Don't stress yourself out over this. You will still have a fabulous time.

 

[patdoc98]

OP, they sent you updates for your days, but Touring Plans changed almost every day for the rest of 2015, and most days in 2016. For the past 2 months, their crowd calendar has under-predicted almost every day in both WDW and Disneyland. So this is just an adjustment to reflect reality. You are still going at a relatively less crowded time. But there are just no more "empty park" days any more - that's the reality. You can still have a great time.

 

[wdw4rfam]

Don't feel bad, I just got an alert that our Epcot day just went from a 7 to a 10 thanksgiving week!!!

 

[loves to dive]

Ignore it, go, have a good time.

 

[Happy_2_B]

We are going at the same time- and you are freaking out. Those changes amount to very little additional time in lines. Park crowds are still lower than most times of the year. I have Josh's calendars from easywdw printed out as well, and am 'combining' estimates to get an overall picture of what it will be like- which overall shouldn't be too bad at all.

 

[mchelle77]

I got this as well and popped on to see how bad ... not TOO bad, and I was able to make duplicate ADRs for days if I switch ... I'm trying to decide now which to keep. My issue is that the last TWO times I went, the Touring Plans estimates were off. Josh at EasyWDW is rumored to be more accurate, and my original plan still is showing on his estimates to be a green so ... ugh. I may have to put faith in Josh and just leave everything as I had it. (I'm the last week of February, if that matters)

 

[sharona]

Interesting info - our dates overlap with yours for 5 park days but we have almost no plans in common. I used easywdw this trip instead of touringplans to plan our park days and planned our trip specifically to try to be at each park on the predicted least crowded day. We're avoiding EMH parks even though staying on site and we didn't get hoppers so I think that is where the difference comes from. Would love to compare notes afterwards on park crowds and wait times. We do have 12/10 MK in common but that is it! That's our arrival day and we'll be dragging so not worrying about the park closing at 7 that night.

Here's hoping everyone else stays home!!!

 

[Mikie]

Frustrating when you plan carefully and the ground shifts. . . However, although I like and use crowd calendars, the authors admit a good plan for your day is more important that picking the "right" park. You have thought out your plans and you have park hoppers, which means flexibility if something really isn't working for you. Your original logic of picking a week with holiday atmosphere but lower crowds (relative to other weeks) is still accurate - this week is still lower than others, just a smidge higher than originally hoped.

Same happened to me last October - booked with the historical thought that fall was slower, then saw that initial estimates were not "slow" at all and had to adjust expectations for that, then trip neared and crowd level estimates got increased just like yours did. . . Your well thought plans will get you through! And those crowd numbers vary from moderate-low to moderate-high, which is not too bad at all! Have a great time!

 

[britt738]

Hi All

Just over 3 weeks away from flying from Australia to the USA and I've received an email from Touring Plans, pretty much every planned day has been impacted with a fairly dramatic rise in expected crowd levels.

I planned this trip specifically these dates because it seemed to be the most quiet part of the holiday period, but now it seems it won't be that quiet after all

Am I over reacting? Or is this going to give me some major issues?

Thanks in advance

Below is the prediction changes, as well as my plan

I'm going to embarrass myself by asking this, but how did you make this spreadsheet? It looks really good! Lol! I live and breathe Excel (my job), and this doesn't look like any Excel spreadsheets I've made. Is it some other software?

 

[bcwilson]

I think you will be fine. That happened to us for one of our October trips. When we got there, we kept saying it wasn't near as bad as we thought it might have turned out to be based on the increased crowd emails from touring plans.
On the other hand, we went in late May this year and they said 6s all week. It was packed. When we got home, we read the email of how touring plans did, and they were off. It was actually 9-10 all week. Needless to say, it is better to be prepared for crowds than to not expect them and then have to deal with them.

 

[Ava]

I like the calendar at easywdw - instead of assigning a crowd level number to each park, he just ranks the parks from "Most Recommended" to "Least Recommended" for each day with detailed explanations of why he ranked the parks the way he did. If you haven't already, check it out for your dates. It may give you a better understanding of what the parks will actually be like, instead of trying to figure out what the real difference is between a "4" and a "6" (short answer: about 8-10 minutes wait time at the major attractions between the hours of 10am and 5pm, so not too much in the grand scheme of things).