To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[FredtheDuck]

Just wanted to pop in to say that this is the dream… I’m looking forward to these moments with my own kiddos:

She admits that our runs together are her favorite part of the day. It's the stuff that makes your heart melt. I continue to cherish these times together.

Also, catching up on your training journal has me really excited to get back to running. I took 2021 off, but for a good reason:



Kiddo 2 (another daughter) was born last month. Here she is with older sister (almost 6 now) last weekend. It was a higher risk pregnancy so I stuck to the Peloton for the most part. I’m hoping to get the all clear from my doc next week to get back to exercising and am planning to do some easy runs for a bit, and then will dust off my very first DBHM plan to build back. Gotta find a victory lap race still.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Just wanted to pop in to say that this is the dream… I’m looking forward to these moments with my own kiddos:




Also, catching up on your training journal has me really excited to get back to running. I took 2021 off, but for a good reason:

View attachment 615417

Kiddo 2 (another daughter) was born last month. Here she is with older sister (almost 6 now) last weekend. It was a higher risk pregnancy so I stuck to the Peloton for the most part. I’m hoping to get the all clear from my doc next week to get back to exercising and am planning to do some easy runs for a bit, and then will dust off my very first DBHM plan to build back. Gotta find a victory lap race still.

Happy to hear from you. Congrats!!!

It is a dream to get to run with G and she’s loving it. We’re going to do a time trial race sometime soon for fun.

 

[garneska]

It is a dream to get to run with G and she’s loving it. We’re going to do a time trial race sometime soon for fun.

Pretty sure she is going to be looking to take you down.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Pretty sure she is going to be looking to take you down.

Without a doubt she will try. She has an inflated sense of ego at the moment because typically we run together on Wed/Fri which are the day after my hard days on Tues/Thurs. We can do the run/walk together no problem, but when she puts on her "super boost" my legs don't care to do that pace on a recovery day (she's usually in the 7-8.5s). So she tends to pull away at the end. If we're doing a time trial, it'll be on a Saturday when my legs have a little more juice in them, or not until after the marathon. She's still talking about trying to win the Princess 5k.

 

[dobball23]

Certainly the costs can add up. I try to use cheaper things in training as substitutes. Like I use SIS Beta instead of Maurten 320 as a pre-run drink most of the time. SIS Beta isn't as good as Maurten 320, but I got a good deal on a bulk order a while ago. That's the other key, buy a lot when you can find a sale. The Feed is one place that puts Maurten on sale on occasion. They usually put out a blast email when it happens, so good to be on their email list. Same with Crank Sports (E-gel) which have sales every 4 months or so. But yea, all these items add up as consumables over time.

I know you've shared it before, but I'm curious on your fueling strategies for marathons? In my two previous marathons, I've taken water/powerade and any food (i.e., bananas, Sport Beans) at stations. But I feel like I've run out of gas over the last 5-6 miles. Some of that could be due to injuries that impacted my training. But some of it could be due to not enough fuel. I want to make sure I'm prepared as possible for my marathon during the upcoming Dopey. I still have some time to experiment with fueling strategies during my upcoming long runs.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Where my Marvel fans at?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I know you've shared it before, but I'm curious on your fueling strategies for marathons? In my two previous marathons, I've taken water/powerade and any food (i.e., bananas, Sport Beans) at stations. But I feel like I've run out of gas over the last 5-6 miles. Some of that could be due to injuries that impacted my training. But some of it could be due to not enough fuel. I want to make sure I'm prepared as possible for my marathon during the upcoming Dopey. I still have some time to experiment with fueling strategies during my upcoming long runs.

It's my belief that avoiding a fade during a marathon is 90% proper pacing and 10% fueling. So you can fuel properly and put yourself in a position not to see a fade. But if you have improper pacing, then it's not going to matter whether your fueling is perfect or not. And the marathon is extremely difficult to pace correctly if your goal is maximal performance. I've done 15 marathons and never not faded in the last six miles. But that's because I'm not always great about choosing an appropriate goal pace (or I run blind). I have run one negative split marathon, and a few close to being negative split.

With all that being said, my advice is to try and find your maximal tolerance instead of your "low enough". By doing your maximal tolerance, you'll eliminate fueling as a reason for why the marathon didn't go as well. If you go with multiple sourced carbs, then you can try and aim for 80-90g per hour. If you go with a single source carb, then your limit is around 60g per hour. My understanding is based on how the body can break down the complex carbs and simple carbs slightly differently allowing a higher content per hour when multiple sourced.

For me, I'm doing:

15 min prior to race - Maurten 320 - 80g carbs
45 min after race starts - Tailwind Concentrate - 25g carbs
60 min - Maurten Caff - 25g carbs
75 min - Egel - 37g carbs
105 min - Tailwind Conc. - 25g carbs
120 min - Maurten Caff/non-caff - 25g carbs
135 min - Egel
165 min - Tailwind Conc. - 25g carbs

It comes out to 96 g per hour.

 

[dobball23]

It's my belief that avoiding a fade during a marathon is 90% proper pacing and 10% fueling. So you can fuel properly and put yourself in a position not to see a fade. But if you have improper pacing, then it's not going to matter whether your fueling is perfect or not. And the marathon is extremely difficult to pace correctly if your goal is maximal performance. I've done 15 marathons and never not faded in the last six miles. But that's because I'm not always great about choosing an appropriate goal pace (or I run blind). I have run one negative split marathon, and a few close to being negative split.

With all that being said, my advice is to try and find your maximal tolerance instead of your "low enough". By doing your maximal tolerance, you'll eliminate fueling as a reason for why the marathon didn't go as well. If you go with multiple sourced carbs, then you can try and aim for 80-90g per hour. If you go with a single source carb, then your limit is around 60g per hour. My understanding is based on how the body can break down the complex carbs and simple carbs slightly differently allowing a higher content per hour when multiple sourced.

For me, I'm doing:

15 min prior to race - Maurten 320 - 80g carbs
45 min after race starts - Tailwind Concentrate - 25g carbs
60 min - Maurten Caff - 25g carbs
75 min - Egel - 37g carbs
105 min - Tailwind Conc. - 25g carbs
120 min - Maurten Caff/non-caff - 25g carbs
135 min - Egel
165 min - Tailwind Conc. - 25g carbs

It comes out to 96 g per hour.

I think you've stated you don't carry food/drink with you during your marathons. How do you accomplish having all those different carb sources, especially the Tailwind concentrate (I think that mixes with a liquid?)?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think you've stated you don't carry food/drink with you during your marathons. How do you accomplish having all those different carb sources, especially the Tailwind concentrate (I think that mixes with a liquid?)?

The Tailwind concentrate is in a 5oz Hammer bottle which fits in my pocket. The gels are also in my pockets. The Maureen 320 is consumed before the race begins.

 

[dobball23]

The Tailwind concentrate is in a 5oz Hammer bottle which fits in my pocket. The gels are also in my pockets. The Maureen 320 is consumed before the race begins.

I see you have Tailwind Concentrate three times during your marathon. Do you have three separate 5oz. bottles that you carry?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I see you have Tailwind Concentrate three times during your marathon. Do you have three separate 5oz. bottles that you carry?

One bottle has 3 scoops of Tailwind and 5oz water.

 

[DopeyBadger]

3 Weeks to go - Hansons Intermediate Week 15/18

10/18/21 - M - OFF
10/19/21 - T - 3 x 2 miles (Hansons Strength)
10/20/21 - W - 1.3 mile @ run/walk with G + 4 miles @ Easy
10/21/21 - R - 10 miles @ M Tempo
10/22/21 - F - 6 miles @ Easy
10/23/21 - Sa - 7 miles @ Easy
10/24/21 - Su - 17 miles @ LR

Total Run Miles - 58.3 miles
Total Run Time - 7:55 hours
Total Run TSS - x TSS

Total Biking Time - 0:00 hours
Total Biking TSS - 0 TSS

Total Strength Time - 0:00 hours
Total Strength TSS - x TSS

Total Training Time - 7:55 hours
Total TSS - x TSS


Tuesday

Peak week!

The workout for today was Hansons Strength at 3 x 2 miles. The goal pace is M Tempo - 10 sec.

Conditions - Clear, Wind 9mph to 16mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 65°F + 46°F; FL - 65°F
End: Temp+Dew = 61°F + 47°F; FL - 65°F

Based on the weather, the goal was a 6:57 min/mile.



Felt like a strong run. The laps were 6:54, 6:49, 6:50, 6:52, 6:51, and 6:44. I don't remember a ton, but I don't feel like I was stressing the run too much. I like seeing the HR drop during the 3rd interval as that's a classic sign for me that I'm getting race ready. I'm a slow starter and strong middle of race runner. The intervals were 6:50 average pace. My right hip was a little sore because of the severe camber on the route, but everything was all good.


Wednesday

Conditions - Mostly Cloudy, Wind 8mph to 13mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 67°F + 55°F; FL - 67°F
End: Temp+Dew = 67°F + 55°F; FL - 67°F

G and I did our 1.3 mile route. I'm forgetting at the moment what the topic of conversation revolved around. I know towards the end we discussed the possibility of doing a time trial (which I covered earlier).

Afterwards, I took my run nice and easy. I've got a max M Tempo and I was pretty sore from the strength workout the day prior. So I did a nice and easy 4 miles at 9:08 pace, 36 min, and HR of 127.


Thursday

Max M Tempo run.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 9mph to 14mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 48°F + 41°F; FL - 44°F
End: Temp+Dew = 46°F + 40°F; FL - 44°F

First M Tempo with no T+D adjustment! Hooray! We can finally see where I'm actually at. I think my body felt ok going into this run, but not quite 100%. The goal was a 7:05 min/mile.



I checking in after 0.5 miles of the M Tempo and saw 7:35 average, and I was like decision time. Either 7:35s is what I'm doing today, or I'm going to need to turn the screws a little more to get down to goal pace. I turned the screws a little more. Got the first one down to 7:13/7:11 and then it was gravy from there. I really settled into the pace for the next six miles to mile #7 that things didn't feel as smooth anymore. I felt like I was pressing pretty good, but I could also tell I was getting fatigued. So the pace slipped ever so slightly. But I also see that nice HR drop as well. So a good news/bad news mile. Mile 8 was hard as well, but then during 9 things started to improve again. I dropped the pace down to 6:55. Now was time for the 10th M Tempo mile and it was going to be my simulator uphill finish. The Madison Marathon has a nice uphill finish, so it's going to be necessary to have a nice uphill kick. While the pace was 7:11, the GAP was 6:56 and even with the previous mile. I felt good at the finish, but I was happy it was over. I tightened up a bit during the CD, but nothing excessive. The tempo section was 7:07 pace, 7:04 GAP, and HR of 148. The run in all was 13 miles, 98 min, 7:33 pace, and HR of 142. Happy with the run overall. My left ankle was a little sore post-run, but nothing terrible.


Friday

G was too excited for the outdoor Halloween dance coming up, so we didn't run together. I took off a little early from work so that I could attend the dance.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 5mph to 7mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 50°F + 32°F; FL - 50°F
End: Temp+Dew = 50°F + 32°F; FL - 50°F

My body was pretty sore from the M Tempo the day prior, so I just took it nice and easy. I can tell I'm in peak week and the peak of training, because my body is not recovering as quickly as it was earlier. But things are harder no, so it makes sense. So another day of just completely easy. Ended up at 6 miles, 55 min, 9:12 pace, and HR of 128.

After the run we went to the Halloween dance. G had a blast running around with her friends. It's fun to watch her grow up. She was an absolute goof on the dance floor. I just stood around and watched. I somehow tweaked my groin when I wasn't even doing anything. It actually felt pretty bad and I was pissed it even happened. Like WHAT just happened? I was hopeful that it would have a minimal impact as the groin pull tends to have for me. This isn't the first time it's happened.


Saturday

Steph didn't work! Hooray! That means I didn't have to wake up early. And it's Fall, so the weather is non-factor in terms of having to wake early. So I slept for 10.5 hrs and it was glorious. My body needed it. The Garmin 245 Body Battery had said you need more sleep five days in a row. That's despite averaging 8.5 hrs a day. Peak week.

Conditions - Clear, Wind 3mph to 4mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 38°F + 34°F; FL - 36°F
End: Temp+Dew = 42°F + 36°F; FL - 36°F

The training load was creeping a little too close to stagnating, so I extended this run from 6 miles to 7 miles. But still at a nice super slow pace. The body still didn't feel completely recovered from Thursday, but trending in the right direction. I did 7 miles, 62 min, 8:56 pace, and HR of 124. That's a nice low HR. Setting myself up for a good max LR day on Sunday.


Sunday

Max LR day!

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 5mph to 11mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 33°F + 30°F; FL - 28°F
End: Temp+Dew = 43°F + 36°F; FL - 28°F

I decided to do 17 miles instead of 16 miles, again because of the slightly sagging training load. Trying to make sure I don't peak too early. I did everything I plan to do race morning and during race day in terms of nutrition. I also wore a tank, shorts, light gloves, and a headband. It was cold for a little bit, but honestly not that bad. Definitely tolerable if it were race day.



The legs felt alright from the start. Not peaking good, but good enough. I was aiming for 7:35 pace. After the first lap, the legs really settled in. It was during the third mile before the uphill and I was at 7:19 average through 0.5 miles, and I was like nope nope nope. That's too much too soon. So I pulled back, but it was a little too late. It's tough. Sometimes when I don't let the legs do what they want, they get a little achy. So despite the pace being slower, I don't quite feel as smooth as I was before. The first lap (4.08 miles) came in at 31:30 (7:43 pace). Things felt comfortable through the second lap as well at 30:30 (7:29 pace). It was around 8-10 miles that my legs started to tighten up and I had to actually start to work for it. The third lap was 30:45 (7:32 pace). A tiny fade, but honestly a more appropriate pace. Things felt alright through the fourth lap as well. I had some soreness in my ankle, but all in all not bad. The fourth lap was 30:45 (7:32 pace) as well. I just coasted into the finish for the last mile because I was fairly tired. The final run stats were 17 miles, 129 min, 7:36 pace, 7:33 GAP, and HR of 137. Those are some great stats. I'm not in peak shape, but I'm in a good place. The left ankle is sore, but not too bad.

My Garmin VO2max on the Garmin 245 moved up to 57. The race predictor has been pretty spot on to my 10k/HM PRs (39:50s and 1:28-1:29). The M prediction has been hovering around 3:14-3:18 based on the day. The 10k/HM projection didn't change much with the move to 57, but the M projection moved to 3:10. Based on the HRvPace data, I feel like my old Garmin would be giving me a 58-59 right now. So a 3:10 seems reasonable. Whether that's feasible is debatable.

I came home and saw the Madison Marathon was down to 88 spots and decided to go ahead and sign up.

Hooray for the taper! I've got another strength workout on Tuesday (depending on how I feel), then max M Tempo on Thursday, and then an 8/10 mile run on the weekend. Coming down the home stretch!

 

[DopeyBadger]

2 Weeks to go - Hansons Intermediate Week 16/18

10/25/21 - M - OFF
10/26/21 - T - 4 x 1.5 miles (Hansons Strength)
10/27/21 - W - 1.3 mile @ run/walk with G + 4 miles @ Easy
10/28/21 - R - 10 miles @ M Tempo
10/29/21 - F - 1.3 mile @ run/walk with G + 4 miles @ Easy
10/30/21 - Sa - 8 miles @ Easy
10/31/21 - Su - 10 miles @ LR

Total Run Miles - 52.1 miles
Total Run Time - 7:12 hours
Total Run TSS - x TSS

Total Biking Time - 0:00 hours
Total Biking TSS - 0 TSS

Total Strength Time - 0:00 hours
Total Strength TSS - x TSS

Total Training Time - 7:12 hours
Total TSS - x TSS


Tuesday

Memory is telling me I actually felt relatively good coming off the 17 miler on Sunday. I couldn't have done a workout on Monday, but I was good to go on Tuesday.

Conditions - Clear, Wind 6mph to 10mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 50°F + 36°F; FL - 49°F
End: Temp+Dew = 46°F + 38°F; FL - 49°F

The workout was a 4 x 1.5 mile. The goal was a 6:55 min/mile.



The first three reps were spot on. I didn't feel like I could do more. I mean if I had to, I could. But I didn't feel like doing more. The last rep I let loose a little more and settled into a nice rep. Felt good about that one. The workout was strong all around. The reps were 6:52 average. The workout all together was 10.6 miles, 82 min, 7:43 pace, and HR of 137. Garmin VO2max was 57, and the projection moved to 3:09:30.


Wednesday

Pulled the sneaky move and tried 45/30 intervals again. But this time the first rep was 30 seconds, so she didn't catch on.

Conditions - Mostly Cloudy, Wind 12mph to 21mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 52°F + 40°F; FL - 51°F
End: Temp+Dew = 51°F + 41°F; FL - 51°F

Ultimately, I could tell 45/30 was tougher for her. Like she didn't realize we were running longer, but I could tell she was struggling a bit more. She did well overall though, but this effort was more than I think she should be giving at this point. So we'll stick with 30/30 for now. We did 1.3 miles at 12:37 pace.

Afterwards, I did my easy 4 mile route. I think this is the one where the neighbor stopped me and we chatted a bit. He's shocked that I'm out running in shorts/tank when it's in the 40s. I didn't even really think it was all that cold out. I took it nice and easy since I had the M Tempo the next day. I feel like my body felt pretty well beat up during this run. All in all it was 4 miles, 36 min, 9:09 pace, and HR of 141. The HR seemed way out of line. That's more like recent mid 7:30s HR not 9:09. I chalked it up to a bad read. It wasn't cadence lock or anything. It was nice to see that my Garmin 245 wasn't as reactionary like my 235 would have been. The 235 would have been sending up flairs, my fitness would have dropped like crazy, etc. But the 245 almost seemed like, yea I don't buy it either. Let's move on and see otherwise.


Thursday

Forecast was calling for rain for the large majority of the day. With coming to the tail end of training, I've had my fill of long rain training days. So I took off work so I could run early in the morning before the rain started.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 9mph to 20mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 46°F + 44°F; FL - 41°F
End: Temp+Dew = 48°F + 45°F; FL - 41°F

The goal was a 7:05 min/mile.



The run was a lot like last week. A little slow to get in the groove, the middle miles felt good, miles 7/8 were an increase in effort, and then 9/10 felt better. I question whether this is a sustainable race day pace, but it was a sustainable today pace. The last couple of M Tempo training runs have been fairly consistent on the same pace. So I'm definitely settling in. Had a nice uphill kick finish. In all, the M Tempo averaged 7:07 pace (7:03 GAP) and HR of 148. So in line with the last few runs. In all it was 13 miles, 97 min, 7:31 pace, and HR of 143. Overall the body tolerated this run well.


Friday

This was a time crunch run because I had to go back and pick up Steph from work. But G and I got it done.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 15mph to 26mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 51°F + 45°F; FL - 51°F
End: Temp+Dew = 51°F + 45°F; FL - 51°F

We did 30/30 for our 1.3 mile route. Today was a 12:58 min/mile and that felt more in line with where she's at right now. She had some fun with the people along our route saying and doing things I've done with little kids in the past and stuff. Chip off the old block. I continue to cherish these times together, and I can tell she does too.

My run was good to. I actually felt better today than I did on Wednesday. Like my body didn't want to go fast, but I also didn't feel like I was in an accident the day prior. I'm starting to feel like I did a few months ago after those lower level workouts. So I think my body is starting to catch up to the training now. In all it was 4 miles, 36 min, 9:06 pace, and 128 HR.


Saturday

Early morning because Steph had to work. So up at 4:45am and out the door at 6am. My left ankle felt horrible when I woke up. Worse than it's felt in weeks. And with no good explanation why. I had little to no issues on Thursday's M Tempo or on Friday, but even what little issues I did have definitely didn't add up to this feeling. Ugh... hate the tapers...

Conditions - Mostly Cloudy, Wind 11mph to 23mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 43°F + 40°F; FL - 37°F
End: Temp+Dew = 43°F + 40°F; FL - 37°F

The ankle didn't feel great during the run itself either. There was a little voice in the back of my head questioning whether I should continue. I powered on though assuming that feeling was merely the tapers. Outside of that, the body felt good. I felt like I could have gone faster, but I also didn't feel like going faster. So I settled into a nice and easy pace. Ended up at 8 miles, 71 min, 8:51 pace, and HR of 127. So 15 seconds faster and 1 less bpm than Friday's run.

All throughout Saturday the ankle felt horrible. It kept cracking and creaking. It was sore. I was limping. It was not a great feeling. It's all in my head... It's all in my head...


Sunday

Happy Halloween! The ankle felt much better Sunday morning.

Conditions - Partly Cloudy, Wind 13mph to 26mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 43°F + 38°F; FL - 36°F
End: Temp+Dew = 44°F + 38°F; FL - 36°F

I settled into a nice and easy 10 mile LR. It was quite windy.



The legs felt good. The ankle was a non-issue. Definitely felt good about this run. After the first two miles I really settled in. Probably went too fast on mile 3, but self corrected after that. I was aiming for around a 7:35 min/mile. I've got no complaints with the run. Ended up at 10 miles, 76 min. 7:37 pace, and HR of 138. All solid stats all around. Garmin VO2max remains at 57 and projection of 3:10:30.

This was a good week overall. I was actually a little surprised to see that despite this being a down week it was actually the 3rd highest mileage/duration week. So I might be in "taper" the body isn't even going to know it based on the current training. In fact, given how next week is structured, my body won't even know the taper has started until Sunday despite whatever's currently going on mentally. I've only got 2 weeks to go. A strength on Tuesday, M Tempo on Thursday, and a simple 8 mile LR on Sunday. So just got to stay healthy and then see what happens on race day.

G was absolutely stoked about Halloween. She could barely contain herself. Steph did a fantastic job with her costume given it was all throw together from Zulily. She really nailed the hair as well. Dizzy did not like the patch on her Photon costume, so that didn't last long. The light up portions were a big hit with the neighborhood. G's gloves were a big fail as every time she flexed her hands they would shut off. And my cape was a bit finicky because it didn't want to stay on the settings I set for it on the phone. It just kept cycling through tons of options, so eventually I just let it. The portable battery worked really well. The old one lasted 1.5 hrs, but this one did 2 hrs and was still at near full charge. So it should have plenty of juice for the entire Princess 5k from bus to end. And G's headpiece should be good for 6 hrs. G had almost as much fun telling people about her costume as she did even trick-or-treating. So I can't wait to see what happens at Princess when she's surrounded by people who are likely to know who she is. All in all it was a successful Halloween.

 

[michigandergirl]

Those costumes are fantastic!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

2021 Madison M Weather: 10 days to go!

It's that time again. Start to track the changes in the weather forecast!





Start at 7am and end at 11am
11/4/21 - WC of 26-31, 72% cloudy, 22% chance of precipitation, 9-13mph NW wind


Temps are better than the Dopey 5k in 2018 (WC of 24, and T+D of 48). That puts shorts and a tank in as race day possibilities. Looks like in that race I wore cutoff socks as arm sleeves and a beanie.

But when I ran the 10k the next morning, I had decided to drop the beanie hat and arm warmers (socks) to run the race of my life. It was a tad warmer for the 10k (WC of 30, T+D of 60). This race looks to be in that general area.

For the 2019 Madison HM, it was a T+D of 71-72 and WC of 33.



So I guess the question goes, what to do, what to do. I might go no hat, possibly headband and maybe sock sleeves. Then toss the sock sleeves if I ever feel the need to since they're practically free (just find the worst pair of socks in the bunch).

Glad the race isn't this Sunday because the T+D would creep over 100 at the finish.

 

[SheHulk]

So I guess the question goes, what to do, what to do. I might go no hat, possibly headband and maybe sock sleeves. Then toss the sock sleeves if I ever feel the need to since they're practically free (just find the worst pair of socks in the bunch).

Glad the race isn't this Sunday because the T+D would creep over 100 at the finish.

Sock sleeves are always the right move when in doubt. You're right, they're free! How long do you anticipate waiting at the start?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Sock sleeves are always the right move when in doubt. You're right, they're free! How long do you anticipate waiting at the start?

The starting area is pretty accessible to spectators. So Steph will be able to stand near me until I cross the start line. I plan to wear my winter jacket, pants, and heavy gloves while standing around in the start area. Then pass it off to her right before the start. From the 2019 race (link), it looks like we got there around 6am for a 7:15am HM start (7am M start), hung out in Starbucks until 6:20am, I warmed up (6:40am per Strava), met Steph inside Collectivo after WU, and then headed to start line around 6:55am.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2021 Madison M Weather: 9 days to go!

It's that time again. Start to track the changes in the weather forecast!



Start at 7am and end at 11am
11/4/21 - WC of 26-31, 72% cloudy, 22% chance of precipitation, 9-13mph NW wind
11/5/21 - WC of 24-30, 36-68% cloudy, 11% chance of precipitation, 6-11mph NW wind (T+D 55-64)

Temps are better than the Dopey 5k in 2018 (WC of 24, and T+D of 48). That puts shorts and a tank in as race day possibilities. Looks like in that race I wore cutoff socks as arm sleeves and a beanie.

But when I ran the 10k the next morning, I had decided to drop the beanie hat and arm warmers (socks) to run the race of my life. It was a tad warmer for the 10k (WC of 30, T+D of 60). This race looks to be in that general area.

For the 2019 Madison HM, it was a T+D of 71-72 and WC of 33.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2021 Madison Marathon Prediction Game!

*Price is Right rules

Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Madison Marathon on November 14th, 2021. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. Here are some rules:

1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Wednesday, November 10th end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 26.22 mile time).
4b) Yes "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go under on the time prediction and still win. But if you're over, then you can't win. Therefore if the final time is 3:20:00, then a time of 3:19:00 is eligible to win, but a time of 3:20:30 is not eligible to win. Don't guess too slow.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:45:00, you can guess 3:45:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner. *Not applicable for this game
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives a mystery item via email.


Helpful Data to Make a Guess

The weather, so far, is predicted to be cold, but no precipitation. Historically, I have done really well in cold weather races.

2015 South Shore HM - "30s" - PR by 4 min
2015 Last Call HM - "30s-40s" - PR by 7 min
2018 Disney 5k - WC 24 - PR
2018 Disney 10k - WC 30 - PR by 2 min
2018 Disney HM - WC 37 - PR by 7 min
2018 Disney M - WC 38 - 2 min away from PR after 3 previous events
2019 Madison HM - WC 33 - PR by 1.5 min

Scanning through the rest of the races, they appear to be in the 40+ range. So I've got a good track record in cold races. Although a marathon is always a tough beast.

The course isn't easy per se.



Per Strava, the GAP is about 6 seconds. So the course will cost me about 2.5 minutes compared to a flat course. My normal GAP is 3-4 seconds, which means this route is also slightly harder than what I normally train on.

Splits from a different runner showing mile by mile GAP:



Based on a few runners, the mileage usually comes out to about 26.35 on GPS watches. So that'll add a little time if you're thinking in a min/mile basis.

Fitness wise, my Garmin VO2max on my new 245 is a 57. It's hard to equate my new HR data and Garmin VO2max to my 235 data, but I would say I'm in a better position VO2max value wise then I've been in the last three years. I personally feel good about where I'm at. I like how my body felt on this week's 6x1 mile at 6:44 pace and the 10 miles at 7:07 pace closing in 6:57, 6:57, and 6:48 grade adjusted paces. The marathon is always tricky, so just because I feel good now doesn't mean the race will go well.

From a training standpoint, this is the most running I've done since summer 2018. My total running volume in this training cycle for the last 13 weeks was double what I did prior to the Non-Cancelled Marathon. Prior to Lakefront 2017, I peaked at 9:03 hours of actual running (whereas the other numbers are the extrapolated equivalents). Prior to Dopey 2018, I peaked at 9:01 hours of actual running. This time I peaked at 7:55 hrs. So I've done more than the last three years, but less than when I set my marathon PR of 3:14 and Dopey 2018 performance of 5:45. I haven't really had any runs during this training cycle where I struggled to hit the pace I really wanted to. I was a little off on the sustained tempo runs in the beginning, but these last few weeks have been near clock work at 7:07 pace and GAP of 7:03-7:04. Honestly, overall I feel like I'm in a good place. I might PR, I might not. My mindset going into the race is just to trust myself in the moment. I've learned I'm a slow starter. So I need to be patient if the pace at the start feels hard and is slower than I'd like. Time and time again on LRs and M Tempos this cycle I've seen slower paces to start. Last night the 7:15 starting pace felt much much tougher than closing in 6:50s. The 6:50s felt smooth and comfortable despite being in the latter half of the training run. So just more evidence that I need to be patient with my body at the start and trust myself throughout the race. Mentally, I'm breaking the race into three parts (hilly #1, flat, and hilly #2). And I know the hills should be slower by 10-25 sec/mile based on which one I'm at.

From a health standpoint, I feel relatively good. Maybe the best in a good bit. Hamstrings are good. Ankles feel decent. I'm not really monitoring anything at the moment, which is a nice feeling. I'm past all the hard workouts, so it's really just about maintaining fitness at this point and some resemblance of training.

Alright, that's all I can think of. Feel free to ask questions if you want more information for a guess. Best of luck to everyone who decides to play! I'll keep tabs on the names and links to their guesses in this thread below here. Remember, don't guess too slow or you lose.

Current Guesses

2:59:00 - @SarahDisney
3:03:21 - Mom
3:04:47 - @SheHulk
3:05:26 - @MissLiss279
3:05:40 - @HangWithMerida
3:05:45 - @TeeterTots
3:06:31 - @michigandergirl
3:07:45 - @azrivest
3:08:12 - @JAMIESMITH
3:09:00 - Gigi
3:09:16 - @FFigawi
3:12:31 - @steph0808
3:12:34 - @flav
3:13:13 - @Kerry1957
3:13:42 - @jmasgat
3:17:33 - @Naomeri
3:18:22 - @shellott-hill
3:23:07 - @Herding_Cats

 

[Naomeri]

My prediction is 3h 17m 33s