Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[redsbe]

One of the problems is that people need to understand that a "5" today is much different from a "5" ten years ago. A "5" today is like what an "8" was ten years ago. Also, things like Soarin being closed has dropped attendance at Epcot and closures at DHS also makes people avoid that park, making MK more crowded. The crowd calendars are just predictions and it's hard to take everything into account. I remember last Oct (I think it was Oct) MK was insanely busy and everybody was baffled as to why. Lines to get in the parking lot were long, the line for bag check was endless, ride queues were long etc. Well it turns out there was a Jewish holiday and because of the way it fell during the week, many schools (a lot in NY, NJ, and FL from what I read) were closed wed, thur, and fri. So what did everyone do? Go to Disney. As someone said in another thread, never underestimate the impact a few Northern states can have on attendance.

I agree, with increase in WDW crowds in recent years, the value of crowd calendars is not whether a particular day is truly a 5 or an 8, but which days/times of the year are lower then others. There may be fewer 5 or less days now compared to just a few years ago, and MK is clearly busier but fact remains some days and weeks are still busier then others. I could care less if a day is a 5 or a 7, but when planning a week I am still aiming to avoid 8+, and if I have a week planned, still looking to avoid busiest park on each day.

 

[Kimberly9701]

I say just ignore the calendars

Agree, sort of.. you have to apply common sense as well. Maybe December 3rd will be a super crowded week..but I'm placing my bet on Thanksgiving being worse.
Same thing with summer time- probably mid June would be more crowded than late August

What worries me is the crowd predictions per day at the park. I've chosen both of our MK days on MVMCP days. One we will leave at 7. The other we will take a mid day break and then head back for the party. SUPPOSEDLY MK is less crowded on party days...so I'm hoping that's correct!

 

[redsbe]

With our WDW visits since 2012 we have worked with the approaches of RD, FP, EMH (evenings) to maximize park time and access to most popular attractions at park opening/closing, regardless of time or year or day (which we still try to select based on lowest possible crowds), but still plan on expecting heavy crowds, hope for the best but plan for the worse. The idea that you could walk into any park, but especially MK, and see no crowds or lines throughout the day, simply has not seem reasonable for several years and certainly not currently or near future.

 

[jillyh]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

 

[Kimberly9701]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

I was worried about that as well. I booked in beginning of March-had to extend my stay to get the room I wanted (tpv at CR). My TA was told that 'we got the last one'. And a few days later- sure enough no availability on ANY rooms. (OK the 1 bedroom garden wing were available, but I don't count those ) I was trying to drop my stay back down to my original dates..now I'm at peace with spending an extra day in WDW though
HOWEVER- now if you log in for those dates- rooms ARE available. I'm thinking people changed after it was exclude from the promotions. Could be wrong though..

 

[Love Tink]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

It is excluded from the FD promotion because it is Pop Warner week.

 

[tstidm1]

Hearing the reports of attractions being run under capacity means I expect to maybe get my three FP + attractions and a couple of other lesser attractions done (Maybe five or six in a day) and not much more. I've just got to lower my expectations of what I get done next week. If I get six rides/shows down in a Day instead of nine to ten, I will be happy. It's disappointing that Disney world is purposefully forcing folks to go during busiest times to get the most done.

 

[maxiesmom]

But...but...but...that site is always right!

Another poster mentioned that many of the schools in the Northeast pushed back their Spring Breaks this year due to testing of some sort. Kind of hard for any of the sites to know that kind of into.

 

[havoc315]

I went in September of '15. Yes, the crowds were higher than predicted, no it was not a "horrible trip". I chose my dates this year according to the crowd calendars, and common sense- My two choices were Thanksgiving week OR December 3rd. We will be on DCL's Fantasy 11/26-12/3. Thanksgiving is rated 9/10 levels so I chose 12/3 instead.

And that *should* work out for you. But take a look at some of the reports from around April 6th or so... predicted as low crowds. Actual crowds (based on lines) broke 10's -- The lines were WORSE than Christmas week. Common sense said it would be a good time to go, the crowd calendars said it would be a good time to go. But due to a slight fluctuation in attendance, combined with capacity closures, the lines became absolutely horrendous. Magic Kingdom was predicted as a 5, but the lines hit 10, with lines worse than Christmas.

This is what the Touring Plans blog had to say:

"Last week’s crowds were extreme not just for post-Easter but for any time of the year. In fact, the Magic Kingdom was a ’10’ every day last week, a feat not matched by Easter week itself. There is no post-Easter week that compares to these crowd levels any year in our database going back to 2006."

Talking about waits like.. an average wait of 2 hours, for Space Mountain. (average!)

Point is.... with reduced capacity, these absolutely horrendous lines can possibly hit at any time. No matter whether you use the crowd calendars, no matter whether you have used common sense. Any low crowd calendar day can suddenly turn into an out-of-control-Christmas-type-line.

Common sense says Christmas should be much worse than April 6-10th. But in this case, April 6-10 were much worse than Christmas.

 

[Kimberly9701]

And that *should* work out for you. But take a look at some of the reports from around April 6th or so... predicted as low crowds. Actual crowds (based on lines) broke 10's -- The lines were WORSE than Christmas week. Common sense said it would be a good time to go, the crowd calendars said it would be a good time to go. But due to a slight fluctuation in attendance, combined with capacity closures, the lines became absolutely horrendous. Magic Kingdom was predicted as a 5, but the lines hit 10, with lines worse than Christmas.

This is what the Touring Plans blog had to say:

"Last week’s crowds were extreme not just for post-Easter but for any time of the year. In fact, the Magic Kingdom was a ’10’ every day last week, a feat not matched by Easter week itself. There is no post-Easter week that compares to these crowd levels any year in our database going back to 2006."

Talking about waits like.. an average wait of 2 hours, for Space Mountain. (average!)

Point is.... with reduced capacity, these absolutely horrendous lines can possibly hit at any time. No matter whether you use the crowd calendars, no matter whether you have used common sense. Any low crowd calendar day can suddenly turn into an out-of-control-Christmas-type-line.

Common sense says Christmas should be much worse than April 6-10th. But in this case, April 6-10 were much worse than Christmas.

Yes, this frightens me. I am keeping my son out of school 3 extra days on top of the 5 he will miss on our cruise- SOLELY for lower crowds. Maybe not solely, spending Thanksgiving with the fam was factored in as well. But the main reason was due to crowds. Maybe being Pop Warner week will help as well? I've seen several people say that they avoid this week.

 

[Michele Trush]

One of the problems is that people need to understand that a "5" today is much different from a "5" ten years ago. A "5" today is like what an "8" was ten years ago. Also, things like Soarin being closed has dropped attendance at Epcot and closures at DHS also makes people avoid that park, making MK more crowded. The crowd calendars are just predictions and it's hard to take everything into account. I remember last Oct (I think it was Oct) MK was insanely busy and everybody was baffled as to why. Lines to get in the parking lot were long, the line for bag check was endless, ride queues were long etc. Well it turns out there was a Jewish holiday and because of the way it fell during the week, many schools (a lot in NY, NJ, and FL from what I read) were closed wed, thur, and fri. So what did everyone do? Go to Disney. As someone said in another thread, never underestimate the impact a few Northern states can have on attendance.

Why would anyone determine that what used to be a 5 is now an 8?

 

[Miss Frankie J]

I like using the crowd calendars as a loose guide and just going with what fits best with our plans. I avoid EMH or in October non party nights in MK as a general rule but sometimes going on a EMH day fits our plans better. I think as long as you have a good plan no matter what day you go on you can manage!

 

[JimmyV]

Another poster mentioned that many of the schools in the Northeast pushed back their Spring Breaks this year due to testing of some sort. Kind of hard for any of the sites to know that kind of into.

I don't put much stock in that. School district calendars are set at a minimum two years out, but in most cases, three years out. I could already tell you what our calendar is for up to 2017-2018, and with a phone call could find out 2018-2019. While there may be individual state testing that could be in play, there certainly isn't anything unique to the Northeast region. And any state testing is also set at least 2-3 years in advance and wouldn't result in any calendar movement.

I don't think the crowd predictions have as much to do with the knowledge of when vacations are as much as it has to do with the inability to predict how many people are going to go to WDW. And this is an economic indicator that is beyond Easy and TP. The economy is improving and attendance at WDW bears that out. I don't think that the crowd predictors go back that far, but I am certain that any prediction done in 2000/2001 would have been way off when it came to 2001/2002. And any prediction in 2007 would have missed badly for 2008-2009. The tanking economies during those two periods couldn't be forecast. And I guess the current recovery couldn't either.

 

[maxiesmom]

I don't put much stock in that. School district calendars are set at a minimum two years out, but in most cases, three years out. I could already tell you what our calendar is for up to 2017-2018, and with a phone call could find out 2018-2019. While there may be individual state testing that could be in play, there certainly isn't anything unique to the Northeast region. And any state testing is also set at least 2-3 years in advance and wouldn't result in any calendar movement.

I can't even tell you what are local schools are doing this fall. And they have taken away/moved break dates over the last few years.

 

[Anal Annie]

I use the easy calendars to plan and I do think they're somewhat helpful. We often do morning EMH's then leave that park by mid-morning or lunchtime. THEN we head to one of the recommended parks and generally have found that they ARE lower in attendance than the park we just left. On our arrival day this June we're driving so our arrival time is just a best guess estimate and will really depend on how far we end up driving the day before and where we hang our hats for the night. I planned that first afternoon / evening in one of the 2 more recommended parks and that's where I booked our FP's. The next day I've planned both morning and afternoon at the 2 most recommended parks. Day #3 however I deviate and plan for morning EMH's at AK because we find we generally get a lot done there on EMH mornings. But then we'll bug out after lunch. My biggest frustrations with trying to plan this trip is with all of the unknown variables on the new attractions opening. It's hard with so many things just being called "summer" or "June". That is NOT helpful when hoping to plan an evening at AK for ROL & the nighttime safari. I blame Disney for most of the inaccuracies - who can predict anything with them any more?

 

[graciedad]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

We went this past September(always been June peeps). We had never been before during this time. We got free dining, plus everyone always says that September is the best time to go crowdswise. I really could tell much difference between September and our early June trips. We had a great time, but I wouldn't go the during school year ever again. Didn't see much advantage to that time except I saved some cash.

 

[BradChristian]

I think that the crowd calendars aren't totally wrong. You can compare the wait times on the Disney app and see that numbers go up during busy seasons and such. To most WDW veterans... they already understand when things will be crazy.

Disney is one of the only vacation destinations for parents like me who have a child under two. I was SHOCKED at how little there was to do for a 2-year-old at Legoland California last week! However - every attraction was a walk on. By Disney appealing to the stroller crowd - they can have crowds in attendance year round because we are not limited to school!

I think the change is that rides like Soarin' and Test Track are now going to have an hour wait year round. Gone are the days were headliners had periods of the day where they are walk ons. There are enough single travelers, ride swamping parents, and non-traditional students out there to where the crowds have dispersed throughout the year AND if somehow there are times where Disney isn't at full capacity... They can fill up the empty space with sales and free dining promotions.

 

[wdw4rfam]

We went this past September(always been June peeps). We had never been before during this time. We got free dining, plus everyone always says that September is the best time to go crowdswise. I really could tell much difference between September and our early June trips. We had a great time, but I wouldn't go the during school year ever again. Didn't see much advantage to that time except I saved some cash.

I agree. We usually go in September and have watched it go from walk on everything with zero wait to 2014 where we saw over an hour lines for most things, some headliners 2 or more. We went his past thanksgiving from the Thursday before to the Saturday after and honestly didn't think there was too much difference. We noticed a slight increase in crowds obviously, but not much to tell you the truth. It was enough to convince us that September low crowds are over, but we are still heading down that time again because of the prices.

 

[DisneyDad2015]

These calendars are best guesses and a service provided for FREE. Once you come up with a better solution, let us know.

Your response seems kind of testy IMO. I was merely making an observation. Do you make crowd calendars and I somehow offended you?

 

[Robo]

These calendars are best guesses and a service provided for FREE.

Not all are free.