Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

[rangebob]

I was talking to a marketing manager for one of the local parks. They work quite a bit with Visit Orlando. They are expecting a slower summer this year for all parks. Parts of their thinking is people is Disneyed out and wanting to take a break and do something else. They are seeing that international travel is cheaper. They are thinking some will choose international destinations this year.

Next year they are predicting a much higher visit rate due to the opening of Epic Universe. They are thinking it is going to be a massive draw to the area and all parks will be seeing higher attendance.

 

[_19disnA]

Travel/marketing companies always say next season/year will see an increase in travel............hurry and book now so you don't miss out !!!...................LOL. I think having it be hotter than normal so early in the year is a factor along with the ever increasing prices. Many people probably have decided they rather vacation somewhere else where they get more for their money.

 

[Jrb1979]

Travel/marketing companies always say next season/year will see an increase in travel............hurry and book now so you don't miss out !!!...................LOL. I think having it be hotter than normal so early in the year is a factor along with the ever increasing prices. Many people probably have decided they rather vacation somewhere else where they get more for their money.

I still say heat isn't as big a factor as many make it out to be. MCO has seen a record number of visitors over Memorial Day weekend. If heat was a factor people wouldn't be flying to Orlando at all.

 

[_19disnA]

I know we will NEVER fly to Florida/Orlando in the summer............WAY too hot to be enjoyable outside and walking for miles @ Disney. I laugh when someone where I work takes their family to the Florida for the first time in July and then returns to say they will NEVER do that again................LOL.

 

[Eastern]

I think revenge travel is winding down. In addition, it is just very expensive to go at any time. Summer is so hot and people don't mind if they are getting a 'deal', but right now, I don't see any real deals.

Disney could have full parks if they wanted to. They are more interested in not admitting defeat by not lowering prices too much. Maybe they will capitulate at some point but it will be too late for people who have chosen other vacations.

 

[Eastern]

Next year they are predicting a much higher visit rate due to the opening of Epic Universe. They are thinking it is going to be a massive draw to the area and all parks will be seeing higher attendance.

If people have money left by then.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I'm honestly not sure the early heat has much to do with it as a lot of Disney tourists plan their trips months/years in advance. I know I've helped 3 families in the past week and all of their trips are months out.

 

[DisneyFive]

#1 is the price, tied to #2 that folks have pretty much gotten their post Covid Disney fix and have a hard time justifying a return trip due to #1, the price.

 

[Minnie1222]

I know we will NEVER fly to Florida/Orlando in the summer............WAY too hot to be enjoyable outside and walking for miles @ Disney. I laugh when someone where I work takes their family to the Florida for the first time in July and then returns to say they will NEVER do that again................LOL.

I'm only going to Orlando this summer due to Tiana's opening. I also want to bring my UK relatives who really want to see Potter, Star Wars, and Avatar. So likely I will be there twice. Otherwise, no more summer trips.

 

[Minnie1222]

I still say heat isn't as big a factor as many make it out to be. MCO has seen a record number of visitors over Memorial Day weekend. If heat was a factor people wouldn't be flying to Orlando at all.

You mentioned in an earlier post that people weren't going to WDW despite MCO having a record number of visitors. How do you know for sure?

 

[Jrb1979]

You mentioned in an earlier post that people weren't going to WDW despite MCO having a record number of visitors. How do you know for sure?

This is from Len Testa who runs touring plans.

Lowest Memorial Day Saturday and Monday since we started saving data in 2009.

 

[pwdebbie]

I think money is a big factor for people. Remember the Year of a Million Dreams? You could stay, eat, and do the parks (package) for a week for about $2500 (moderate resort). (I still have my receipts from the trip. We spent about $500 out-of-pocket on extras like souveniers and extra snacks.) Price would more than triple for us to do that same trip now. Most people's income certainly has not tripled since 2007. While I can afford it, the question is do I really want to spend my retirement savings that way?

I enter sweepstakes for Disney vacations and it is always astonishing to me the value they place on the prize. I'm willing to pay the taxes on it though if I win.

 

[Minnie1222]

This is from Len Testa who runs touring plans.

Lowest Memorial Day Saturday and Monday since we started saving data in 2009.

But how did he arrive at this conclusion? Did he have the actual head counts?

I need proof!

 

[Eastern]

I know we will NEVER fly to Florida/Orlando in the summer............WAY too hot to be enjoyable outside and walking for miles @ Disney. I laugh when someone where I work takes their family to the Florida for the first time in July and then returns to say they will NEVER do that again................LOL.

It's hard to describe how hot it gets. It's like you walk into a greenhouse and can't get out.

 

[NYCgrrl]

I’ll be going in a short time and I have noticed it’s somewhat easier to get certain ADRs while harder for others. For instance, HDDR, is booked pretty solidly and was unable to grab a premium show during my stay, yet a more expensive venue readily had availability.
My takeaway is people are cautious in spending funds but still want their fun time just at a lower cost.
I’d love to see more data than a two day anecdote as noted for Memorial Day. Not that long ago there was talk of NY real estate values plummeting during the pandemic but two years later, it’s at record highs .

 

[J-Dog]

I still say heat isn't as big a factor as many make it out to be. MCO has seen a record number of visitors over Memorial Day weekend. If heat was a factor people wouldn't be flying to Orlando at all.

I'm honestly not sure the early heat has much to do with it as a lot of Disney tourists plan their trips months/years in advance. I know I've helped 3 families in the past week and all of their trips are months out.

The problem is that these are being measured two different ways. MCO being busy is a "front end" measurement, whereas low wait times is a "back end" measurement.

If there still are high numbers going through MCO, and therefore still theoretically high numbers going to WDW, but the perceived numbers for wait times, etc, are lower/different, it might be as simple as people's park-going habits actually have changed due to the heat. i.e. people are more likely to be hiding in the AC in gift shops, their resort rooms, etc, in the middle of the day.

 

[greeneyedchick]

I still say heat isn't as big a factor as many make it out to be. MCO has seen a record number of visitors over Memorial Day weekend. If heat was a factor people wouldn't be flying to Orlando at all.

This week in Orlando has been pretty nice....mid 80s.

 

[Minnie1222]

The problem is that these are being measured two different ways. MCO being busy is a "front end" measurement, whereas low wait times is a "back end" measurement.

If there still are high numbers going through MCO, and therefore still theoretically high numbers going to WDW, but the perceived numbers for wait times, etc, are lower/different, it might be as simple as people's park-going habits actually have changed due to the heat. i.e. people are more likely to be hiding in the AC in gift shops, their resort rooms, etc, in the middle of the day.

Thank you for the clear explanation. This is what I'm trying to understand. When I see the term Crowd Level, I read it as crowd size or  head counts. I was curious on what variables they use to establish a direct relationship (in a mathematical sense) between wait times and crowd size. But it appears that there isn't one.

 

[Jrb1979]

Thank you for the clear explanation. This is what I'm trying to understand. When I see the term Crowd Level, I read it as crowd size or  head counts. I was curious on what variables they use to establish a direct relationship (in a mathematical sense) between wait times and crowd size. But it appears that there isn't one.

There is one. I believe they have people at the parks daily and they count people in queues. Touring plans have been doing this for years. Their apps wait times are more accurate than Disney a lot of the time.

 

[123SA]

One of the problems with using wait times to judge crowd size is staffing. One example, Ive been to Disney lots of times when only one side of Big Thunder is open creating a 20 -30 minutes line during a low crowd time