Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[DisMomKY]

I’m excited! After negotiating we got 130 points at Poly for 130 per point!! 31June 2020 points and full 2021 and beyond

 

[Noles235]

I’m excited! After negotiating we got 130 points at Poly for 130 per point!! 31June 2020 points and full 2021 and beyond

Congrats!

 

[Bobby2443]

In January we bought a 200 pt beach club contract at $150 per point which at the time I thought was market and it had December use year which we wanted so I was happy with it, yesterday we bought another at beach club Dec use year 350 pts for $120 per point. I feel good about the value at that price. For our family we need two rooms so we need the points. Not sure this is a low ball offer (we first offered $110) but relative to the $140-$150 per point before COViD at beach club I feel pretty good about $120

 

[Cyberc1978]

In January we bought a 200 pt beach club contract at $150 per point which at the time I thought was market and it had December use year which we wanted so I was happy with it, yesterday we bought another at beach club Dec use year 350 pts for $120 per point. I feel good about the value at that price. For our family we need two rooms so we need the points. Not sure this is a low ball offer (we first offered $110) but relative to the $140-$150 per point before COViD at beach club I feel pretty good about $120

Larger contracts like yours tend to demand a lower price pp. You can always use the ROFR thread to see current and past prices.

 

[E2ME2]

I’m excited! After negotiating we got 130 points at Poly for 130 per point!! 31June 2020 points and full 2021 and beyond

You took my suggestion from Post #104 !?
AWESOME SAUCE! - You have to invite us over to watch the fireworks with you from POLY beach !

ET

#104 DisMomKY said:
What would you all offer on this one? It’s listed at 143.
Poly Dec Use year 135 pts

December 2019 - 54 points December 2020 - 160 points December 2021 - 135 points

I would offer $130/PP ??

 

[DisMomKY]

You took my suggestion from Post #104 !?
AWESOME SAUCE! - You have to invite us over to watch the fireworks with you from POLY beach !

ET

#104 DisMomKY said:
What would you all offer on this one? It’s listed at 143.
Poly Dec Use year 135 pts

December 2019 - 54 points December 2020 - 160 points December 2021 - 135 points

I would offer $130/PP ??

Different contract but yes! That one they wouldn’t budge from 143. This one was listed at 146 so getting them down almost 2k was a win to me

 

[MICKIMINI]

Thanks for the Instant Calculator tips! I knew it was there but had forgotten all about it. I just ran a bunch of scenarios for my "ideal" contracts. That was an eye opener! There is a 28% drop to "instant" from the recommended sales price...holy smokes! It's pretty undeniable what the actual value is - wow!

So one of the contracts I'm seeking is AKV...a 160+/- OCT with '19, '20 & '21 points so the instant price is $83. I've seen a few AKV in the high $90's, so I don't think this is unrealistic - now whether an owner would accept is another thing.

Another thing of note - those unicorn 2057 OKW's, even in the 100+/- range are only $6 more pp compared to 2042 in the instant calculator. Tough to find, but worth waiting it out if anyone is looking to add to OKW!

 

[gtfpjames]

What is the Instant Calculator if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I’m excited! After negotiating we got 130 points at Poly for 130 per point!! 31June 2020 points and full 2021 and beyond

CONGRATS!! You did it!!

 

[hlhlaw07]

What is the Instant Calculator if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/instant-sale/

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

So one of the contracts I'm seeking is AKV...a 160+/- OCT with '19, '20 & '21 points so the instant price is $83. I've seen a few AKV in the high $90's, so I don't think this is unrealistic - now whether an owner would accept is another thing.

Yep, your scenario does seem possible.

I just did an "instant sale" of 150 SSR points with points in '20, '21, and the instant price was $72. I haven't seen anything lower than $95. $72 seems a long way off still.

 

[Cyberc1978]

What is the Instant Calculator if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!

Have in mind that this calculator is setting a price for distressed or desperate owners looking to sell asap.

Far from all owners are in that category. The regular pricing tool is more useful in general.


buying a 100 contract and saving $10-15pp is that really important? I mean if you own for 1-2 years yes then it could be important. However if you own for 5-10 years it’s not important.

let’s do the numbers.

Poly have 46 years left on the contract.
100 points yearly is 4.600 points total.

Paying $140 pp or $125 pp excluding closing costs.

140 x 100 = $14.000
125 x 100 = $12.500

Price per point:
$14.000 / 4.600 =$3.04
$12.500 / 4.600 =$2.72

So every point is worth $3.04 Or $2.72 respectively. On top you need to add annual dues.


I totally understand that everyone wants to save money but we still need to keep the perspective. Is it worth it to potentially not getting a contract because of 32 cents pp?

 

[DisMomKY]

Have in mind that this calculator is setting a price for distressed or desperate owners looking to sell asap.

Far from all owners are in that category. The regular pricing tool is more useful in general.


buying a 100 contract and saving $10-15pp is that really important? I mean if you own for 1-2 years yes then it could be important. However if you own for 5-10 years it’s not important.

let’s do the numbers.

Poly have 46 years left on the contract.
100 points yearly is 4.600 points total.

Paying $140 pp or $125 pp excluding closing costs.

140 x 100 = $14.000
125 x 100 = $12.500

Price per point:
$14.000 / 4.600 =$3.04
$12.500 / 4.600 =$2.72

So every point is worth $3.04 Or $2.72 respectively. On top you need to add annual dues.


I totally understand that everyone wants to save money but we still need to keep the perspective. Is it worth it to potentially not getting a contract because of 32 cents pp?

I think it depends on budget too, I had a set cash price I didn’t want to go over and really wanted 130 points at Poly. I’ll probably eventually need to add another 25-30 points so I had to be strict with my budget. A couple dollars per point can really add up. 2k saved made our contract in our price range where listed price it wasn’t

 

[JETSDAD]

I wouldn't put much value in the instant purchase calculators for determining market value. Just like instant offers for houses, those prices will be below market as they will account for additional closing costs, time/effort, risk, and a profit margin.

 

[hlhlaw07]

I agree the instant sale price shouldn’t be taken as the actual value of the contract. The idea is to know what the broker values the contract at for an immediate sale so you don’t inadvertently end up competing with them for your low ball offers. The thread is about low ball offers, not the actual market value of the contract. Although at this time, who really knows what the true market value should be in these unprecedented times. Low ball offers generally require a seller who is motivated or desperate to accept. If they aren’t those things, then maybe the lowball offer is more aligned either actual market value. Either way, the calculator is helpful for those looking to low ball contracts.

 

[E2ME2]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/instant-sale/

Before reading this thread I didn't know this existed. Looking at it, as a buyer, I would think one could take the instant price, add on a normal cost of the real estate transaction and a percentage for commission, and come up with a lowball offer based on that?
Am I missing something obvious??

 

[MICKIMINI]

Yep, your scenario does seem possible.

I just did an "instant sale" of 150 SSR points with points in '20, '21, and the instant price was $72. I haven't seen anything lower than $95. $72 seems a long way off still.

We're getting there!! You may need to put your checkbook away until fall. I pretty much run the show (surprise!) but DH and I were talking this morning and this is truly an opportunity that can not be missed...when it gets here. We're brainstorming that October/November/December may reveal the best deals.

 

[hlhlaw07]

Before reading this thread I didn't know this existed. Looking at it, as a buyer, I would think one could take the instant price, add on a normal cost of the real estate transaction and a percentage for commission, and come up with a lowball offer based on that?
Am I missing something obvious??

Nope, I think you have it covered. I, and others, have had success with lowballs using it as tool to come up with lowball offers. Does it work every time? No. But it does help put you in more a position of advantage when trying to formulate what you want to offer.

As for all the advice regarding not worrying about a few thousand dollars and losing the contract. That is absolutely sound advice as well. But if an individual is in a rush to buy and is worried about missing out on a contract, I don’t recommend a low ball strategy. When I bought my first resale contract, I did not low ball because I just wanted to have a contract and had a use for the points. So I stuck to what they were offering for price. I even started offering over asking when I had Disney ROFR 4 contracts in a row.

But once I no longer “needed” points, I started low balling offers to see what stuck. I had at least 3 lowball offers accepted without counter using the information from that calculator. One contract I own now, the other were taken in ROFR. And that’s ok, because I wasn’t in a hurry to buy and was fine if I didn’t end up with the contract. YMMV.

 

[mmackeymouse]

A few days ago I put in an offer for a 125 VGF contract and ending up settling with $145 and sellers paying closing. All points from 2019 going forward is available.

This is actually the same offer I just made and had rejected. What was the asking price, may I ask?

Of course, in my case, there are no points coming from 2019 or 2020. So, now I really feel like my offer was pretty fair.

I completely agree with you here,

This morning we had an low offer rejected on a 100 points saratoga contract. I recevied the following email reply:


This is a Buyer's market but nothing is going 20% off list price. Sales are quite brisk:
2020: 1,274 contracts listed for sale and 1,247 sold through April (97.9%)
We are averaging $1.3 million /wk in sales since the Covid!

To me this is typical broker reply. Ignore it! We are early to the party, and they are late. When they arrive things will move faster.

So, the broker told me that anything lower than 5% below asking is usually declined. 5%.

Think some buys definitely don't want to negotiate their prices. Offered $65 for an Aulani list at $87. They countered at $95 which made me lmao... Guess they aren't wanting to counter back and forth.

This made me laugh too. Thanks for the chuckle.



The instant sale tool is totally eye opening. On the offer I just made, the pp was $156 regular and $112 instant sale. I had offered $125, bearing in mind no points are coming till next year. So, I feel like my offer was pretty fair. This was a good eye opener.

 

[DisMomKY]

This is actually the same offer I just made and had rejected. What was the asking price, may I ask?

Of course, in my case, there are no points coming from 2019 or 2020. So, now I really feel like my offer was pretty fair.




So, the broker told me that anything lower than 5% below asking is usually declined. 5%.





This made me laugh too. Thanks for the chuckle.



The instant sale tool is totally eye opening. On the offer I just made, the pp was $156 regular and $112 instant sale. I had offered $125, bearing in mind no points are coming till next year. So, I feel like my offer was pretty fair. This was a good eye opener.

As a seller, I never rejected an offer—I think you can always come down a little and see what happens