This just in from Disney Parks blog!

[JimmyV]

It's really quite clear that Disney's definition of success in this system could be mutually exclusive with the definition of success by many guests.

Disney's idea of success is for 100% of all guests to use FP+. Our idea of success is to get more FPs than the typical guest. The achievement of both goals cannot coexist. It was fun while it lasted....

Except there will be people saying (including bloggers and other commentators) that they could get this or that. But it will be for one FP, not a whole group of FPs. You can see this already.

Yes, the law of large numbers, plus the inability of people to understand that their atypical experience was just that, pretty much guarantees that people will brag about what they were able to achieve and that all the complainers are wrong and irrational. Of course, on some day, and for some atypical reason (such as a family cancelling a 10:30 TSM FP reservation at the last minute such that that reservation goes back into the system), someone will be able to get a 10:30 TSM FP at a kiosk when they search at 10:00, and they will come back here and say that they system is perfect and that all the dire predictions are just wrong. It is bound to happen. We can see it now. "FP+2.0 Worked Great For My Family. Plenty OF Availability". And this conclusion will be based on one lucky minute on one lucky day.

 

[WillAustin]

I agree. I think Disney has seen the impact of removing barriers to access of FP. I'm really afraid the kiosk thing might not be temporary for additional FPs as it was for same day guests getting on board. That of course would then leave guests to wonder if it's worth 15 minutes in a kiosk line to avoid a 25 minute POTC line. Knowing all along of course, that either of those wait estimates could be wildly off.

And you never know if what's available at the kiosks would also be available to someone else via the app that hasn't advance booked their 3 yet. They could easily block off a number of slots to only be available at a kiosk.

 

[mom2rtk]

Yes, the law of large numbers, plus the inability of people to understand that their atypical experience was just that, pretty much guarantees that people will brag about what they were able to achieve and that all the complainers are wrong and irrational. Of course, on some day, and for some atypical reason (such as a family cancelling a 10:30 TSM FP reservation at the last minute such that that reservation goes back into the system), someone will be able to get a 10:30 TSM FP at a kiosk when they search at 10:00, and they will come back here and say that they system is perfect and that all the dire predictions are just wrong. It is bound to happen. We can see it now. "FP+2.0 Worked Great For My Family. Plenty OF Availability". And this conclusion will be based on one lucky minute on one lucky day.

Sounds precisely like another thread I opened this morning. One poster actually called the OP a liar because they said they couldn't get certain same day FPs last week.

 

[surferdave]

Sounds precisely like another thread I opened this morning. One poster actually called the OP a liar because they said they couldn't get certain same day FPs last week.

And called the other poster negative.

 

[mom2rtk]

And you never know if what's available at the kiosks would also be available to someone else via the app that hasn't advance booked their 3 yet. They could easily block off a number of slots to only be available at a kiosk.

This is the part that makes my head hurt. If I hovered over the app for weeks leading up to my trip hunting for a certain FP and never succeeded, yet someone else was able to walk up to the kiosk one afternoon and get said FP, it would be so frustrating. Between that, and chasing parade FPs, A/E FPs, Wishes FPs, this really is becoming a full time job of chasing things down.

I remember the good old days. When I had the trip booked, and had finally scheduled that one last elusive ADR, and I put it all away, knowing I was "done" and only had to count down the days. Sigh. It really does seem that is a thing of the past.

 

[JimmyV]

And you never know if what's available at the kiosks would also be available to someone else via the app that hasn't advance booked their 3 yet. They could easily block off a number of slots to only be available at a kiosk.

This is the great unknown. The computer that distributes FPs could be programmed in all sorts of invisible ways. Perhaps it could detect that a family has ridden TT 6 times in 4 days, and when they try to get another FP for it at the kiosk, they get shut out, even though times are available. The "No Soup For You" approach. Or maybe the family that is in a Concierge Level Suite at the GF finds availability when the family that is using the kiosk right next to them is getting "No Soup" because they are staying off site. There are lots of ways that FP distribution can be manipulated, and I have a hard time concluding that Disney spent upwards of $2B on NextGen without an eye toward such manipulation. It has always been suspected that FPs could be manipulated to reposition guests. "Henry! There are way too many people in Fantasyland. We need to flip the switch so that the machines start giving out FPs in Adventurland and Tomorrowland". Well, if they could do this, then they could do pretty much anything.

 

[OtherScott]

I have a hard time concluding that Disney spent upwards of $2B on NextGen without an eye toward such manipulation.

Explains a lot, doesn't it?

 

[JeremyGNJ]

This is the great unknown. The computer that distributes FPs could be programmed in all sorts of invisible ways. Perhaps it could detect that a family has ridden TT 6 times in 4 days, and when they try to get another FP for it at the kiosk, they get shut out, even though times are available. The "No Soup For You" approach. Or maybe the family that is in a Concierge Level Suite at the GF finds availability when the family that is using the kiosk right next to them is getting "No Soup" because they are staying off site. There are lots of ways that FP distribution can be manipulated, and I have a hard time concluding that Disney spent upwards of $2B on NextGen without an eye toward such manipulation. It has always been suspected that FPs could be manipulated to reposition guests. "Henry! There are way too many people in Fantasyland. We need to flip the switch so that the machines start giving out FPs in Adventurland and Tomorrowland". Well, if they could do this, then they could do pretty much anything.

You're right. This is the only way it makes sense to spend the money. Its a $2 Billion dollar crowd control tool.

That said, a lot of people have been saying that Disney has been stagnant and not keeping up with Universal and other. But really FP+ is truly innovative, and light years ahead of the competition. It has a lot of benefits to guests in the long run, even if it's difficult to see from the individual perspective.

 

[mom2rtk]

This is the great unknown. The computer that distributes FPs could be programmed in all sorts of invisible ways. Perhaps it could detect that a family has ridden TT 6 times in 4 days, and when they try to get another FP for it at the kiosk, they get shut out, even though times are available. The "No Soup For You" approach. Or maybe the family that is in a Concierge Level Suite at the GF finds availability when the family that is using the kiosk right next to them is getting "No Soup" because they are staying off site. There are lots of ways that FP distribution can be manipulated, and I have a hard time concluding that Disney spent upwards of $2B on NextGen without an eye toward such manipulation. It has always been suspected that FPs could be manipulated to reposition guests. "Henry! There are way too many people in Fantasyland. We need to flip the switch so that the machines start giving out FPs in Adventurland and Tomorrowland". Well, if they could do this, then they could do pretty much anything.

But...... but........ but......... I thought Disney did this to make things "fair"........

 

[fbb]

I would state it differently. They are trying to address the primary complaint that people have with the system.

But the system was nearly perfect as was. 98% of the feedback was positive. They told us so.

 

[morethananyonex]

You're right. This is the only way it makes sense to spend the money. Its a $2 Billion dollar crowd control tool.

That said, a lot of people have been saying that Disney has been stagnant and not keeping up with Universal and other. But really FP+ is truly innovative, and light years ahead of the competition. It has a lot of benefits to guests in the long run, even if it's difficult to see from the individual perspective.

How does a 2 billion dollar crowd control tool benefit me, a guest, more than 2 billion dollars worth of attractions?

In your opinion, what is likely to draw in new guests or old guests more frequently, 2 billion dollars of new attractions, or MyMagic+?

 

[ArwenMarie]

I think by the afternoon of the day-of, they will just throw the scraps into the bucket and say have at it because they know there won't be much left.

I think that's why they don't care about adding this functionality. As opposed to selling them. They would sell them if they could, but they know by this point there is nothing left to sell.

By doing this, they take the wind out of the complaints and give something back that they don't care about at that point. Of course, I'm still waiting for the bonus prebooked FP for deluxe guests, so if that happens there will really be little left.

 

[OtherScott]

But the system was nearly perfect as was. 98% of the feedback was positive. They told us so.

You're getting additional FPs because:

1. You complained about it, or
2. In a system designed to use FPs as a hook for park guests, Disney's early returns show that that it hooked 40% more fish and can set the hook deeper for those who want to pull additional FPs.

You were getting additional FPs no matter what. Disney gets nothing from unused FPs.

 

[JimmyV]

Explains a lot, doesn't it?

It explains a lot about why Disney loves the system. What it doesn't explain is why so many people fail to see that this is a Disney-positive initiative and not a guest-positive initiative. The only real explanation is that many believe the king can do no wrong.

You're right. That said, a lot of people have been saying that Disney has been stagnant and not keeping up with Universal and other. But really FP+ is truly innovative, and light years ahead of the competition. It has a lot of benefits to guests in the long run, even if it's difficult to see from the individual perspective.

I don't agree and I think that now that this system has been implemented, pilloried and changed all in three short months shows that people don't view a $2B behind-the-scenes investment in crowd control to be innovative and light years ahead of the competition when it comes to their personal experience. People want to see park growth in terms of attractions and experiences, not crowd redistribution. Who the heck cares about that? Also, consider this. The "competition" could copy this technology and have it up and running in less time than it took Disney to do so, learing all the while from Disney's mistakes. Once the competiton has the same system in place, Disney's is no longer innovative and light years ahead and the two will cancel each other out. That will leave you with comparing what Disney has done to improve and push forward with its attractions compared to how its competiton has improved and moved forward with its. Who wins there? Disney's investment in crowd management as the "difference maker" only works as long as it reamins different. Apparently, those days are numbered. Disney adds one new Meet and Greet (E&A) and the world turns on its axis. Soon it will add a minor roller coaster, and again the world will spin differently. Imagine what would have happened if $2B had been spent on rides and parks instead of crowd control.

But the system was nearly perfect as was. 98% of the feedback was positive. They told us so.

I guess the other 2% was very influential.

 

[mom2rtk]

You were getting additional FPs no matter what. Disney gets nothing from unused FPs.

Unless those were the FPs Disney intended to sell and now the had to abandon that?

I guess the other 2% was very influential.

So we've heard.

 

[jade1]

Exactly right. In busier times of the year, such as Christmas week or mid summer, the headliner attractions are going to run out of fastpasses right away. Most will probably be gone in advance because of all the people booking from home 30 or 60 days ahead. People who just go to the park that day who didn't book ahead now are out of luck and have to wait standby (several hours just for ONE headliner). If by chance there are some left, there is going to be a mad rush and long lines at the kiosks.

The kiosks will be busy but most folks will have 3 reserved, so most of them will need to use the 3 before heading to a kiosk. I wouldn't expect those to get busy until late am at least.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

Imagine what would have happened if $2B had been spent on rides and parks instead of crowd control.

If they spent $2B on rides. You'd have 2-3 new rides and wait times would decrease by MAYBE 5%. So a 30 minute wait would become 28.5 minutes.

 

[CinderElsa]

This is the great unknown. The computer that distributes FPs could be programmed in all sorts of invisible ways. Perhaps it could detect that a family has ridden TT 6 times in 4 days, and when they try to get another FP for it at the kiosk, they get shut out, even though times are available. The "No Soup For You" approach. Or maybe the family that is in a Concierge Level Suite at the GF finds availability when the family that is using the kiosk right next to them is getting "No Soup" because they are staying off site. There are lots of ways that FP distribution can be manipulated, and I have a hard time concluding that Disney spent upwards of $2B on NextGen without an eye toward such manipulation. It has always been suspected that FPs could be manipulated to reposition guests. "Henry! There are way too many people in Fantasyland. We need to flip the switch so that the machines start giving out FPs in Adventurland and Tomorrowland". Well, if they could do this, then they could do pretty much anything.

If they spent $2B on FP+ and DIDN'T have these features implemented, somebody should be fired for negotiating a pretty awful deal.

I fully expect there to eventually be a difference in - at least - the allotted FP+ slots for resort & non-resort guests.

 

[jade1]

You know I couldn't resist that "fishing line". You are obviously a fishing fan and I would highly suggest you check out Lake Okeechobee for some bass fishing sometime. My Dad was just down there for a big tournament last month.

p.s. my SIL just moved to Andover, MN and sent us pictures of her ice fishing out of a cabin in the middle of some huge lake.

Yea, and I know we are not typical tourers of WDW, so take my examples, though accurate for us-with a grain of nontypicalness.

Yea ice fishing just gets so old when you enjoy shirtsleeves and open water,

How far is it? Could we fish Lake Okeechobee one day, then still get back for the mountains and Wishes? Will look into it.

Moved here? Must have lost a bet, looks like a new foot of snow out the window today.

 

[JimmyV]

You're getting additional FPs because:

1. You complained about it, or
2. In a system designed to use FPs as a hook for park guests, Disney's early returns show that that it hooked 40% more fish and can set the hook deeper for those who want to pull additional FPs.

You were getting additional FPs no matter what. Disney gets nothing from unused FPs.

But this assumes that guests will actually get additional FPs. That remains to be seen. 4-6 weeks ago, we had a lengthy discussion about the "math" and nothing has changed. The numbers don't support guests getting and using 4, 5 or more FPs. And if Disney reeeeaaaallly wanted to give guests more FPs, it would have gone with its poll option that allowed for immediate dispensing of additional FPs as soon as the first was used. That was the overwhelming choice of guests responding to the poll, and there is a poll on this board that mirrors that. Why did Disney choose the option that was third out of three choices in terms of popularity? Easy. It provides the appearance of offering additional FPs without actually doing so. They are fighting wars on two fronts: public reaction and math. Their "solution" was the only way to win both wars. It remains to be seen if the victory on the public relations side is sustainable. I suspect that the word in the conference rooms is, "Give it time. We're going to get bruised pretty bad at first, but in the end, the storm will blow over."