If we go to war do you think air fare will go down, up, or stay about the same. DH & I have been debating on when to buy or tickets for our trip. Please give me your opinion.
I'm not sure about the price, but what concerns me is what will happen is what happened after 9/11, the airlines started cancelling flights and consolidating. I'm happy with my flight times for my May trip, I don't want them messing with them. I just booked PIT/MCO for $201, which isn't too bad for Friday to Friday.
I think airfare will do what it always does - bounce up and down inexplicably. It might drop for a bit if people stop taking trips, but then the price of fuel will skyrocket and bring the fares back up.
I think oil prices will rise and the "airfare" will go down, but the fuel surcharge will go up. I think most airlines are doing $10 a ticket now, but expect that to rise.
Oil prices have pretty much already risen in anticipation of war. Current crude prices are close to where they were during the 1990 Gulf war. As such, I'm not sure that fuel prices will be a big contributor to increased airfares. I voted that airfare prices will go down. I think war will create jitters. Any activity in the Mid-East will create more terrorism jitters. I think all that will cause people to travel less and we will see trends similar to post 9/11 travel. In October and November of 2001 we paid $75 and $87, respectively, for r/t airfare from NY to Orlando. If the airlines had major concerns that the cost of providig air service was going to go up as a result of a war I doubt I'd have been able to get r/t air from NY to Orlando for $159 for November.
Then again, I could be wrong......................................
I heard a business report on our local radio station just this morning saying that the price of airline tickets will be going up this summer and don't go looking for any discounts.
The airlines are consolidating flights (I already had NWA email me that my flight home in June was cancelled and I was put on another one) and they are not putting any fares on sale this summer.
Last summer SWA did the "Friends Fly Free" promotion and I doubt the will be doing that again this year.
Most airlines hedge (betting on and locking in) a portion of their fuel prices ( last figure I heard was roughly around .80 a gallon of Jet A) and depending on the Airline, can cost or save 10's of millions for every penny rise/fall. Some cannot keep eating the rise. For example,it cost Northwest Airlines app $20 million for every every penny rise. The Air Transportation System is in the midst of an unprecedented transformation due to mismanagement,security surcharge and the economic downturn. If war breaks out again, who knows what will happen. Too hard to predict. If you wonder how Airlines like Southwest can do it, read this from 2001:Southwest Airlines
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