The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[Opie100]

I mean, that's the point.

Thanks for the responses. I don't think DVC wants to dampen the market for direct points. I'm just guessing Disney doesn't expect too many buyers will forgo the purchase as long as they can still sell at around 60% of the price they purchased, even though that's substantially lower than the resale value of points in home resorts other than the Riviera.

 

[tom1944]

Why not? There are plenty of other developers whose resale values are dimes on the dollar (or less) that have no trouble selling new timeshares. Heck, they are even able to sell to folks who know the market, because of (perceived) differences in value and FOMO. Arguably, that’s exactly how DVC is selling now.

There is no reason DVC can’t be like any other timeshare. In many ways, they always have been. The idea that somehow DVC isn’t a timeshare is a product of the Pixie Dust Reality Distortion Field.

Obviously I am making assumptions because the current model with the resale value is different than most timeshares

Anecdotally the current owners I have spoken to about DVC only did so because they saw this product as different than a timeshare. If that changes I believe they would have a smaller future customer base

 

[tom1944]

Why not? There are plenty of other developers whose resale values are dimes on the dollar (or less) that have no trouble selling new timeshares. Heck, they are even able to sell to folks who know the market, because of (perceived) differences in value and FOMO. Arguably, that’s exactly how DVC is selling now.

There is no reason DVC can’t be like any other timeshare. In many ways, they always have been. The idea that somehow DVC isn’t a timeshare is a product of the Pixie Dust Reality Distortion Field.

Obviously I am making assumptions because the current model with the resale value is different than most timeshares

Anecdotally the current owners I have spoken to about DVC only did so because they saw this product as different than a timeshare. If that changes I believe they would have a smaller future customer base

 

[RoseGold]

Thanks for the responses. I don't think DVC wants to dampen the market for direct points. I'm just guessing Disney doesn't expect too many buyers will forgo the purchase as long as they can still sell at around 60% of the price they purchased, even though that's substantially lower than the resale value of points in home resorts other than the Riviera.

The resale restrictions were an intentional shot at resale value of DVC. Of course this is going to scare off some buyers. It's a planned total direction change from DVC's entire existence. Disney made this choice anyway.

Disney believes this will make them more money long term, maybe they are right. There are a lot of fools buying much less appealing timeshares all the time. Disney has an army of salesmen for a reason.

But they have a long time to compete with themselves, as long as the legacy product has value.

 

[Brian Noble]

Anecdotally the current owners I have spoken to about DVC only did so because they saw this product as different than a timeshare. If that changes I believe they would have a smaller future customer base

Sure, a few of those people would not have bought. But I bet that a lot of them would have found some other reason why this was a good purchase, because it’s something they wanted. A good sales agent would have helped them find those reasons. They might even be reasons why this ”isn’t a timeshare”—but one of those might no longer be “has a substantial value on the resale market.” Instead, it is “It’s not a timeshare, it’s a Club that Welcomes You Home.”

Or, as another poster wrote: “if you buy most other timeshares you are buying just accomodations, but investing in DVC ownership is a way of prepaying luxury accommodations at Walt Disney World or Disneyland“. If I were a DVC sales agent, I’d be using that line almost verbatim.

I’ve written this before (and possibly even in this thread) but when I find myself trying to be “coldly rational” in making a decision, that’s usually a sign that I am trying to talk my cognitive-self into something that my emotional-self really wants.

 

[tom1944]

Sure, a few of those people would not have bought. But I bet that a lot of them would have found some other reason why this was a good purchase, because it’s something they wanted. A good sales agent would have helped them find those reasons. They might even be reasons why this ”isn’t a timeshare”—but one of those might no longer be “has a substantial value on the resale market.” Instead, it is “It’s not a timeshare, it’s a Club that Welcomes You Home.”

Or, as another poster wrote: “if you buy most other timeshares you are buying just accomodations, but investing in DVC ownership is a way of prepaying luxury accommodations at Walt Disney World or Disneyland“. If I were a DVC sales agent, I’d be using that line almost verbatim.

I’ve written this before (and possibly even in this thread) but when I find myself trying to be “coldly rational” in making a decision, that’s usually a sign that I am trying to talk my cognitive-self into something that my emotional-self really wants.

I really cannot disagree with you. It does seem to me that Disney had an excellent model that worked for years and might be going to a place where as we say pigs get fed but hogs get slaughtered

 

[Sandisw]

I see. I assume questions outstanding are:

(1) Will prior DVC direct purchasers at PBV be able to book the tower at 11 months?
(2) Will prior DVC resale purchasers at PBV be able to book the tower at 11 months? 7 months? At all?
(3) Will prior DVC direct purchasers at other resorts be able to book the tower at 7 months?
(4) Will prior DVC resale purchasers at other resorts be able to book the tower at 7 months? What is the cut off date?

For example, 2009 resale points at another resort work at Riviera at 7 months. Perhaps they will announce a grandfathering date?

1 & 2. If Poly Tower is part of the PVB association, then all PVB points will be valid there at 11 months. Wont matter how someone got their points, or when. If it is new association, then no one with PvB points will get home resort advantage

3. Direct points are eligible at all resorts at 7 months so regardless of which way they make Poly tower, those points will be eligible for booking.

4. Beginning in January 2019, all resale points are not eligible for booking RIV and future resorts, based on the rules today. If Poly tower is a new association and comes with restrictions, then only resale points bought prior to that date are eligible for booking it.

 

[Sandisw]

I really cannot disagree with you. It does seem to me that Disney had an excellent model that worked for years and might be going to a place where as we say pigs get fed but hogs get slaughtered

So far, there is pretty solid evidence that resale restrictions are not impacting sales in any meaningful way and that DVD can sell a product with them.

For four straight months RIV sold better than VGF, which doesn’t have them, Now, RIV has a longer contract, and was less expensive, but the 2:1 spread was large which meant people were willing to overlook them given the right conditions.

If DVDs goal is to play the long game and kept restrictions in play, they may be willing to adjust sales goals until they have enough resorts with them that it doesn’t matter as the product changes.

If VDH has them, then I think it means they are still on the table for Poly tower. If VDH does not, then I’d say they are changing tactics, and I think we might even see them gone from RIV.

My guess is still that Poly tower will be new and restrictions in place.

 

[SL6827]

This makes me wonder if Jambo owners got really upset with the building of Kidani and having to compete even harder for those CL rooms once Kidani came online? What year did Kidani open?

 

[Mikey15]

This makes me wonder if Jambo owners got really upset with the building of Kidani and having to compete even harder for those CL rooms once Kidani came online? What year did Kidani open?

AKL apparently opened in 2001, but converting a portion to DVC happened later. A bit like the 35 years between Poly the hotel and Poly DVC. “AKV” (Jambo) opened in 2008 when Kidani was already under construction (opened 2009).

 

[SL6827]

AKL apparently opened in 2001, but converting a portion to DVC happened later. A bit like the 35 years between Poly the hotel and Poly DVC. “AKV” (Jambo) opened in 2008 when Kidani was already under construction (opened 2009).

Ohhh. Ok. I got it backwards then.

 

[Nabas]

Matching VGF would be exorbitant? Brand new resort, on the monorail, built from the start as DVC unlike Poly1 and VGF…assuming they do a decent job with the finish and amenities, doesn’t seem that out of line IMO. I mean, nobody would expect it to be less than RIV, or a lot less than VGF right?

I expect some rooms will be more than the equivalent at VGF, some less. On average close to the same probably.

Maintenance Fees are exactly that: fees for maintenance. How much will it cost to maintain a brand new hotel with an outdoor pool?

Let’s also recognize what this is: a typical roadside Choice Hotels but with a great location and theming.

Many feel RIV’s theming is somewhat bland. At best, its theming is subtle. Based on the artist concept, PVB2 is looking to be similar.

This is not an expensive project, nor will the cost of maintaining it be high.

Keep in mind that PVB long houses are 50 years old and only 3 floors high, meaning it’s a somewhat inefficient hotel to maintain.

Disney should have no problem making a hefty profit selling PVB2 for whatever is the going rate for direct pricing at the time of its opening, and no problem maintaining it using the same point charts and MF of PVB.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Maintenance Fees are exactly that: fees for maintenance. How much will it cost to maintain a brand new hotel with an outdoor pool?

Let’s also recognize what this is: a typical roadside Choice Hotels but with a great location and theming.

Many feel RIV’s theming is somewhat bland. At best, its theming is subtle. Based on the artist concept, PVB2 is looking to be similar.

This is not an expensive project, nor will the cost of maintaining it be high.

Keep in mind that PVB long houses are 50 years old and only 3 floors high, meaning it’s a somewhat inefficient hotel to maintain.

Disney should have no problem making a hefty profit selling PVB2 for whatever is the going rate for direct pricing at the time of its opening, and no problem maintaining it using the same point charts and MF of PVB.

So there might be a financial benefit from a DVC Maintenance perspective keeping them as one association - adding points tied to the "cheeper" tower to help pay for the aging long houses.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I can say if I was buying the PVB2 direct, and was told I would NOT have "priority" booking window for the Bungalows or even the regular Polynesian rooms with the landscaping etc., I'd feel like I was receiving a Poly-Lite instead of the full Polynesian. I'm pretty sure #poly-lite would be a marketing fiasco.

 

[CarolynFH]

or even the regular Polynesian rooms with the landscaping etc.,

I'm confused. Do you mean the regular Poly hotel rooms, or the DVC Deluxe Studios? Poly 1 owners have 11 month booking for the bungalows and the studios, but the regular Poly hotel rooms are completely separate. And are you saying you think that Poly2 won't have landscaping?

 

[TinkAgainU]

When I said "regular Poly Rooms with landscaping", I meant the existing Deluxe Studios with mature landscaping pretty much at eye height vs Tower Rooms that might have great views but where a lot of the rooms will be higher floors and feel more like a modern tower hotel, but with Disney and/or Polynesian decorating. Quite different from the Bungelows feel for example. Some will prefer the new Towers (or room options) of course - I was just saying if I paid big bucks for PVB2, I'd want BOTH options at 11 months out.

If they make it separate, those who buy in would have booking priority at the Poly Towers at 11 months, but not the older area or bungalows until 7 months out. Hence, the Poly-Lite joke.

 

[Sandisw]

When I said "regular Poly Rooms with landscaping", I meant the existing Deluxe Studios with mature landscaping pretty much at eye height vs Tower Rooms that might have great views but will feel more like a modern tower hotel, but with Disney or Polynesian decorating. Quite different from the Bungelows for example. Some will prefer the new Towers (or room options) - I was just saying if I paid big bucks for Direct, I'd want BOTH options at 11 months out.

And there are some of us who want the opposite. We don’t want to own at the tower to compete with all the points associated with PVB.

In the end, DVD will decide pros and cons of each choice and long range goals. I am just glad that we may be down to 6 to 8 months to getting the decision!

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Disney cannot turn their product into another timeshare where there is no value in being able to sell

Why not? Wyndham/Marriott/Hyatt/Sheraton are all doing just fine.

 

[aka Charles]

Have they even Started on the hotel or still doing ground,prep work?

I just got back from WDW and went by the poly to check out the progress.
They were drilling down 50+ feet in many locations and putting in rebar and pouring concrete for piles.
This is the first step in doing the foundation.
Once they are ready, they will do the main foundation, then go vertical.





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[aka Charles]

Based on the tower's location and rough design, there'll basically be East-Northeast facing rooms, which I guess will be "Lake View" like Poly 1, and West-Southwest which could be "Standard View." Thankfully I don't think they can justify a separate TPV category.

That being said, I think you can definitely see MK more from the potential "Lake" side rooms than you can from the Lake Rooms at VGF (which face south? at least the studios) so I could see those rooms as high or higher in points as VGF "Lake."

I do believe there will be three room view categories.
What they they name each category will be up to the marketing folks, but they will be something like this...

1. Theme Park View or Preferred View
2. Lake View, Lagoon View, or Pool View
3. Standard View


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