The Motley Fool see the need for new ships

[jrabbit]

I was reading an article from the Motley Fool (investment advise) about Disney and what they need to do to bring back quality and "branding" to their brand. Heres an excerpt from the article...

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That's why Iger's main objective should be to plant new exclamation points in all of Disney's operating divisions. Even though the theme parks will get a boost from the chainwide Disneyland anniversary celebration this year, he needs to sprinkle around some pixie dust like it's brown sugar at a churro cart. Offer more e-tickets. Create more quality family attractions. Flesh out the two newest Disney domestic theme parks into full-day locations. Double the fleet of Disney's two cruise ships -- which are pure class -- and take advantage of the growing number of available ports.
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Here's the link to the entire article.

 

[kmiles]

I can't really reveal the source but it's been confirmed that both the president and vice president of DCL were on the ship this week speaking of a major upcoming announcement while the Magic is in CA.

As has been reported before, one of the "seven night" cruises from the West Coast will actually be a “six-night." The Magic leaves for a seven-night cruise on 7/9 and returns to port on 7/16. If you look at the next cruise, it leaves on 7/17 (a Sunday).


So, the Disney Magic is going to be sitting in port for a full Saturday and will be leaving for a shortened cruise on Sunday, July 17.

The ship would make a perfect backdrop for a major announcement, huh?

(Please note that these are not my original observations. Rather, they have been widely disseminated in the Disney rumor circles since the repositioning was announced last May.)

At any rate, I think they will be announcing two new ships.

 

[Lloyd Dobler]

The 17th is the actual fiftieth anniversary of Disneyland, so it stands to reason that there will be some kind of ceremony on that day. It makes sense to tie in an announcement of that magnitude here.

I've been hearing about new DCL ships since 2001, so I always take a wait-and-see attitude when I hear something like this, but I'm going to allow myself a bit of optimism here (just a bit - don't worry, I'm still as cynical as ever....).

 

[Sarangel]

I've been hearing the "third ship" rumor since 2000, but the rumors have been gaining intensity since Disney announced this summer's West Coast cruises. I, too, believe that some sort of announcement will be made on 7/17/05 regarding the cruise line - I'm just not sure it will be new ships (though that is most likely). It could be an announcement saying that they'll bring the magic back next summer or something else.

Sarangel

 

[jrabbit]

What was said in the article isn't a rumor, it's an analyst's take on what Disney needs to do in order to make a strong come back in the market place - in all of their divisions.

As far as the 7/17/05 anouncement, I'm not holding my breath on a real, live "we're starting construction of a new ship (or two) next week" announcement because that means that the BS about the "strength of the euro" is just that - BS. Now they could come out and say that based on the strength of demand for DCL cruises they are "going to toss caution to the wind" and start construction of a new ship regardless of how the Dollar and the Euro stack up.

I think that the announcement will be more marketing stuff - "Don't you just love this ship. Come on over to WDW next year and spend a few days there and finish off your vacation on Magic or the Wonder. We are really proud of what Disneyland has done for the company for the past 50 years and to celebrate, we've added 4 new major attractions at WDW. Come to WDW to celebrate." And then afterwards it will be a party for the Disney exec's and invited guests. The crew will then have to clean up the mess and get the ship ready for the next group of paying guests.

I really hope that I am wrong.

 

[Lloyd Dobler]

I've always been kind of dubious about the "dollar v. euro" excuse, for a couple of reasons. First, it doesn't seem to be affecting the other cruise lines. RCCL just laid the keel for the first of their "Ultra-Voyage" class ships in Finland, which if I'm not mistaken also uses the euro. Second, I don't know this, but I suspect that cruise lines do not simply hand over a check for half a billion dollars when they contract to build a ship. I would guess that payments are made in increments as the work proceeds over the course of almost two years. The exchange rate can and does fluctuate quite a bit over that period of time.

It's easier for me to believe that Disney is hesitant to lay out that kind of cash when their stock price is struggling, although it is up about $8 from its 52-week low last summer.

 

[alexandrew]

That's an excellent point you made....

It's been a major disappointment that we havent been given a new ship as yet.....It makes me wonder just how profitable the cruise line actually is....

 

[Princess Tink]

but, with all this talk of a new ship. I'm just curious, how long does it take to build a ship?

 

[tvguy]

There just isn't capacity at the shipyards right now. If Disney announces a ship today, it will be 3 or 4 years before construction begins, and 4 or 5 years before it goes into service.

I also wonder if Disney hasn't done a LOT of research on supply versus demand. With 2 ships they can command a premium price and fill up the ships........are there another 2000+ people a week willing to fork out top dollar for a cruise?

Anyone here old enough to remember when the Honda Accord came out in the late 1970's? Honda dealers could charge $2000 over MSRP (about $3000 over Dealer Invoice) because demand was so high. When supply caught up, they had to sell the same car for $500 over Dealer Invoice. So they had to sell 6 cars to make the same profit that they used to earn on 1 car.

 

[mum of two pirates]

On the rumor board a whil ago I thought I read an artical that disney bought an island of of CA. For the new ship they wanted to buold. I would go, airfair would be so cheap for us, now it is costing us only$500 less then our 7 day cruise. Someone?

 

[thesoldtrain]

Okay, so my hubby's theory is that perhaps Disney won't actually use newbuilds, but maybe have bought other hulls or ships to refit them? A possibility? What do you think? A couple cruise lines have done this recently, I believe?

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I have posted before. But I know very well some big disney excutives as fairly good friends. Both have told well a new ship has bee designed and they would like to build a new ship, not expect really any sort of announcement until at the very earliest the end of the year. They are and have been evaluating and working on building new ships but nothing in terms of construction has started at this time. I am told for sure in the future DCL will be expanding. This info comes from the best sources out there, I dont feel its appropriate though to reveal there names because they trust me with this info so I am not loosing their trust by releasing there names.

Matt