Surge Question

[DopeyDame]

I don't watch a lot of news, but I have noticed that there's a shift in focus again in the local outlets I read - from cases and hospitalizations to deaths - but that seems to happen any time case counts start trending downward rather than up. And every time a dire prediction falls flat, which it appears to have done re: Thanksgiving in my state.

But I also think a lot of the pre-Thanksgiving coverage was driven by daily or near-daily press conferences trying to convince people not to gather for the holiday, rather than by any routine data or metrics, so I figure we'll be back to those stories again next week when the "cancel Christmas" press conferences start in earnest.

I'm so glad to hear there are parts of the country where the case counts are trending downward. Our local case count keeps breaking records day after day lately. Where do you live? What do you think is happening to make your area a (good) anomaly?

 

[easyas123]

Right, and this was likely an unnecessary trip right now. These people did not have to take that trip. Two of them got Covid, and likely infected others on their way back to the East Coast. if they stopped anywhere to eat, use a rest room...etc. They are lucky....they survived, but it's also quite possible that they infected others along the way, and that someone down the line will die in the coming weeks as a result of that unnecessary trip. Every action has a consequence, and sometimes we may never even learn what those consequences are. That seems to me to be more evident than ever right now. Does it suck that we should not mix households at all during the holidays. Absolutely....it really, really sucks. But it's truly not that big of a sacrifice to give up *one* year of get-togethers knowing that it very well may save thousands and thousands of lives.

You are 100% correct but that wasn't the point of my comments....no need to beat the dead horse. OBVIOUSLY they made the wrong choice all the way around and hopefully they didn't infect any others. My own son & nephew had to quarantine due to the fact that this fella works for us and didn't come down sick until midway thru the work day....thank goodness neither of them were positive nor sickened from this...my point was just that it is weird that some (for a myriad of reasons, obviously) appear not to get it even though in close quarters with those that did, and that my fear was giving it to someone and them becoming seriously ill.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

You are 100% correct but that wasn't the point of my comments....no need to beat the dead horse. OBVIOUSLY they made the wrong choice all the way around and hopefully they didn't infect any others. My own son & nephew had to quarantine due to the fact that this fella works for us and didn't come down sick until midway thru the work day....thank goodness neither of them were positive nor sickened from this...my point was just that it is weird that some (for a myriad of reasons, obviously) appear not to get it even though in close quarters with those that did, and that my fear was giving it to someone and them becoming seriously ill.

Some people will take every opportunity they get to tell everyone else how it's not hard to sacrifice a year, how it was it unnecessary travel, now everyone and their grandmother is infected, etc. I don't think your post should have been a stepping point for that discussion because it was clear that wasn't the point.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Surge in most news places are still being talked about.

 

[MrsCobraBubbles]

Point being he was quite old. Old people can die from falling and breaking their hip. I don't think I have as much of a chance of dying because I fell and broke my hip. That's the kind of information we need, not just the death count. What are the underlying conditions and ages of the deaths? All we hear is the count ticker to instill fear.

The death count should instill fear! That fear should encourage us to be considerate of our fellow humans and wear masks, distance, and keep everyone safe! Regardless of underlying conditions, if a person is infected with Covid and dies they should be counted as a Covid death. I don't care if they had COPD before they were infected with Covid--clearly they were LIVING WITH the COPD, and then they DIED while infected with COVID. Have you looked at the list of health conditions which can put you at higher risk of Covid complications/death? Probably half of Americans will have comorbidity, given our high instances of obesity and heart disease.

I just really hate it when people start questioning the underlying conditions, it's like they are saying it's ok that the person died because they were sick anyway. It's like they are trying to dehumanize the deaths. Every one of the people that have died is someone's child/parent/spouse/loved one and we should always remember that those numbers represent human beings.

 

[dvcgirl67]

You are 100% correct but that wasn't the point of my comments....no need to beat the dead horse. OBVIOUSLY they made the wrong choice all the way around and hopefully they didn't infect any others. My own son & nephew had to quarantine due to the fact that this fella works for us and didn't come down sick until midway thru the work day....thank goodness neither of them were positive nor sickened from this...my point was just that it is weird that some (for a myriad of reasons, obviously) appear not to get it even though in close quarters with those that did, and that my fear was giving it to someone and them becoming seriously ill.

I understood the part of your post you are referring to....I was responding to the part of your post where you stated you wouldn’t want to get the virus and give it to others. Anyone out and about to the degree of your acquaintances should just assume they’re spreading the virus at this point. That was all I was trying to say.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Still open in NJ, lots here love their hair and nail salons! So many women I know were making appointments as soon as they opened. I’m guessing they’ll be closing down shortly.

Murphy seems to be holding for now. I’m wondering if he’s trying to wait until after Christmas at this point. Hospitalization numbers seem to be the focus for now and I would think those numbers are about to jump as people infected over thanksgiving are going to be getting sick enough to require hospitalization in the coming days.

 

[easyas123]

.

 

[robinb]

Does your state report the percentage of positive tests? That’s probably a better indicator than overall cases. Different regions do different numbers of tests so it’s hard to compare directly. For example, the province next to us (British Columbia) is currently performing about half the number of tests per week that Alberta is. Of course their overall case count is lower but their percentage of positive tests is similar.

My state reports the percentage of positive tests both by person and by test. The first throws out all but the first negative test to account for people like health care workers and college students who test regularly. The second counts all tests, including frequent fliers.

My point is that there are significantly fewer tests taken in the past week. It makes we wonder if people are simply hunkering down and riding out Covid without being tested.

 

[Heather07438]

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston highlights the impact of superspreading events
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/09/science.abe3261Abstract
"Analysis of 772 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from early in the Boston area epidemic revealed numerous introductions of the virus, a small number of which led to most cases. The data revealed two superspreading events. One, in a skilled nursing facility, led to rapid transmission and significant mortality in this vulnerable population but little broader spread, while other introductions into the facility had little effect. The second, at an international business conference, produced sustained community transmission and was exported, resulting in extensive regional, national, and international spread. The two events also differed significantly in the genetic variation they generated, suggesting varying transmission dynamics in superspreading events. Our results show how genomic epidemiology can help understand the link between individual clusters and wider community spread."

This study looks at genomes from outbreaks last spring. It determined the 2 day Biogen conference that made headlines was likely responsible for 200,000-300,000 cases spread directly. I wonder if any similar studies are underway to track Sturgis from back in late August. They might need to rename that rally Surges.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Point being he was quite old. Old people can die from falling and breaking their hip. I don't think I have as much of a chance of dying because I fell and broke my hip. That's the kind of information we need, not just the death count. What are the underlying conditions and ages of the deaths? All we hear is the count ticker to instill fear.

Yeah, but, if someone hadn't exposed him to COVID, would he still have died at that time? That's what's being reported, he died due to COVID.

 

[llij]

The death count should instill fear! That fear should encourage us to be considerate of our fellow humans and wear masks, distance, and keep everyone safe! Regardless of underlying conditions, if a person is infected with Covid and dies they should be counted as a Covid death. I don't care if they had COPD before they were infected with Covid--clearly they were LIVING WITH the COPD, and then they DIED while infected with COVID. Have you looked at the list of health conditions which can put you at higher risk of Covid complications/death? Probably half of Americans will have comorbidity, given our high instances of obesity and heart disease.

I just really hate it when people start questioning the underlying conditions, it's like they are saying it's ok that the person died because they were sick anyway. It's like they are trying to dehumanize the deaths. Every one of the people that have died is someone's child/parent/spouse/loved one and we should always remember that those numbers represent human beings.

Thank you for your thoughtful post. I was getting upset reading some of the callous posts on here about people who have died from Covid like their life is expendable because they are old or had other medical issues. My mother in law is one of the 290,000+ that have died from Covid in the US. While she had some of the comorbidities that put her at risk, it was Covid that killed her. She was a sister, mother and grandmother and we still deeply grieve her loss. She died without anyone from the family present in the ICU and she was buried in a quick 10 minute ceremony that we got to watch on video. We haven't been able to hold her funeral yet due to quarantine restrictions and I'm not sure when we will be able to hold a funeral mass. I don't wish what my family has gone through on anyone and it hurts to see how cavalier some people are with this disease.

 

[VandVsmama]

Once you hit 80 years old, you're officially old with a capital O. You're on borrowed time and every day is a gift. I'm sorry to hear of the 100 year old gentleman who passed away from COVID, but on the one hand...he was 100 years old. He lived a long life. Think about all of the changes in the world that man saw in his life time...women getting the right to vote, the Great Depression, the rise of Communist China, WW2, the creation of the state of Israel, the Korean War, Vietnam War, the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, the Civil Right movement, the dawn of computers, the Internet, cell phones, etc., etc. It's pretty remarkable if you step back a moment and think about it.

I'm sure that his family will miss him very much.

 

[VandVsmama]

Thank you for your post. I was getting upset reading some of the callous posts on here about people who have died from Covid like their life is expendable because they are old or had other medical issues. My mother in law is one of the 290,000+ that have died from Covid in the US. While she had some of the comorbidities that put her at risk, it was Covid that killed her. She was a sister, mother and grandmother and we still deeply grieve for her. She died without anyone from the family present in the ICU and she was buried in a quick 10 minute ceremony that we got to watch on video. We haven't been able to hold her funeral yet due to quarantine restrictions and I'm not sure when we will be able to hold a funeral mass. I don't wish what my family has gone through on anyone and it hurts to see how cavalier some people are with this disease.

The not being able to have a loved one at the bedside when the patient is near death is so hard. So sorry to hear about your MIL.

 

[mrodgers]

Yeah, but, if someone hadn't exposed him to COVID, would he still have died at that time? That's what's being reported, he died due to COVID.

I can hear the whooshing of the air flying overhead from here....

 

[Colleen27]

I'm so glad to hear there are parts of the country where the case counts are trending downward. Our local case count keeps breaking records day after day lately. Where do you live? What do you think is happening to make your area a (good) anomaly?

I'm in Michigan and I wouldn't call it "good" exactly. More like "not as bad". The trend is slightly downward after a very sharp spike in Nov., even though there is widespread disregard and ongoing litigation over mask mandates and business restrictions, respectively. I really couldn't say what is working because around me, it seems like mask compliance has actually gotten much worse and there are a number of restaurants openly defying closure orders, I know very few people who cancelled Thanksgiving plans and even fewer who are planning to cancel Christmas, and the shops I've been in have been less busy than a normal year at this time but still quite busy. But our 7-day average is down almost 15%, hospitalizations are down by about the same, and the positivity percentage has dropped by about a third (though that is still concerningly high).