it has a history of breaking down, yes.
If it’s a ‘must do’ for you and you don’t want to purchase
Lightning Lane (Oct 19th or later) then personally I would arrive early and do it first thing in the morning. (I calculate this as arriving at our resort transportation 90 mins before Early Entry begins).
If it’s not a ‘must do’ for you then you may try later in the day as you’re correct that lines are traditionally shorter in the evening.
All of this may change though in 10 days when Genie services begin as we don’t really know how LL purchases will affect standby lines.