Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[Girlstar30]

2024 points all banked to 2025
for same weird reason they bought OTUP of 9
all 2025 points
= 309

Very unlikely tho!

@Girlstar30 When I bought my resale I was hunting for these fully loaded BLT. I was able to buy 2 of them. I think loaded contracts are under valued. Stripped contracts are over valued in general.

Hey mine had random 9 too lol. Yes thats the general consensus, stripped overpriced, loaded over. You got lucky with the two double point blts. My blt purchase was my first one when I knew nothing so I have no bragging rights to that lol. It was slightly stripped, ill never buy a stripped contract again

 

[VGCgroupie]

$102 average for December (DVCRM):
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2025/

I know we’re a bit more aggressive on deals around these parts, but that data is still a good frame of reference for relative movement.

Yes. If look at sales history that is documented. SSR dips and rises more than Poly which tends to have a consistent value. It's actually a bit lower now due to it being active sales.

But it seems we are grasping at straws to justify SSR.

 

[Girlstar30]

Its a worst deal longterm period, math doesnt lie. Even pricier vdh comes out less over life of the contract and u cant even compare the two.

Trying to say ssr bus transport is faster to justify this direct purchase is wild and maybe happens from time to time but that is not a reason to buy something going to zero way faster and not have any benefits of a desired resort.

I havent heard one person say they actually bought this direct this cycle because they really like ssr. Maybe someone will pop up now that I pointed this out, but I have yet to see it. Anyways im out this convo because like I said math doesnt lie and people gun do what they want as they should lol!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Its a worst deal longterm period, math doesnt lie. Even pricier vdh comes out less over life of the contract and u cant even compare the two.

Trying to say ssr bus transport is faster to justify this direct purchase is wild and maybe happens from time to time but that is not a reason to buy something going to zero way faster and not have any benefits of a desired resort.

I havent heard one person say they actually bought this direct this cycle because they really like ssr. Maybe someone will pop up now that I pointed this out, but I have yet to see it. Anyways im out this convo because like I said math doesnt lie and people gun do what they want as they should lol!

I may have seen one person. Which is completely fine. Coming here and saying hey I bought SSR direct because I love it there and I want direct points even if most see value in other resorts is perfectly fine. You cant come here asking others to give financial and logistical justification for doing so. The fact that reassurance is needed says everything.

If you love SSR and are happy you bought it direct just own it and be happy about it. I was thrilled with my Boardwalk purchase and asked nobody to justify my buying a 2042 I justified it to myself thats all I needed because that was what I wanted to buy and it's what made me happy. Totally worth it to me.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Its a worst deal longterm period, math doesnt lie. Even pricier vdh comes out less over life of the contract and u cant even compare the two.

Trying to say ssr bus transport is faster to justify this direct purchase is wild and maybe happens from time to time but that is not a reason to buy something going to zero way faster and not have any benefits of a desired resort.

I havent heard one person say they actually bought this direct this cycle because they really like ssr. Maybe someone will pop up now that I pointed this out, but I have yet to see it. Anyways im out this convo because like I said math doesnt lie and people gun do what they want as they should lol!

Oh CFW is probably the worst as is sits right now. But nobody even remembers its an option

 

[Girlstar30]

Oh CFW is probably the worst as is sits right now. But nobody even remembers its an option

Wasn't even on my mind lol

 

[Brian Noble]

Yes inflation is a thing

This is a pet peeve of mine, because so many people insist on straight-line division of purchase prices over the horizon rather than choosing some discount rate. When I point this out, 90% of the time the answer is "I'm going to spend it, not invest it, so it does not matter."

PVB still wins out on a cost-per-point basis if you use the current Cleveland Fed's estimate of long-term inflation (2.4%), and amortize each over the life of the contract to expiration, but it is a close thing. SSR's horizon is shorter (28 years) but at 200 points, bought by an existing member, its amortized per-year purchase cost is still about 5% lower than PVBs amortized over 40. PVB's lower dues (by about 9.4%) puts it back in the lead. If you assume dues will rise faster than inflation (I do) then PVB pulls a little farther ahead.

(Interestingly, the first-year difference favoring PVB is almost entirely the Anniversary savings.)

Even so, it is a lot closer than I thought it would be. If one expects one's future cash flows to rise faster than inflation (over 28 years, I do not, because I will retire well before halfway), then the SSR purchase could fit one's circumstances better than PVB, viewing each strictly as SAP.

 

[VGCgroupie]

This is a pet peeve of mine, because so many people insist on straight-line division of purchase prices over the horizon rather than choosing some discount rate. When I point this out, 90% of the time the answer is "I'm going to spend it, not invest it, so it does not matter."

PVB still wins out on a cost-per-point basis if you use the current Cleveland Fed's estimate of long-term inflation (2.4%), and amortize each over the life of the contract to expiration, but it is a close thing. SSR's horizon is shorter (28 years) but at 200 points, bought by an existing member, its amortized per-year purchase cost is still about 5% lower than PVBs amortized over 40. PVB's lower dues (by about 9.4%) puts it back in the lead. If you assume dues will rise faster than inflation (I do) then PVB pulls a little farther ahead.

(Interestingly, the first-year difference favoring PVB is almost entirely the Anniversary savings.)

Even so, it is a lot closer than I thought it would be. If one expects one's future cash flows to rise faster than inflation (over 28 years, I do not, because I will retire well before halfway), then the SSR purchase could fit one's circumstances better than PVB, viewing each strictly as SAP.

I will be perfectly honest. I have spreadsheets, so many spreadsheets, some factor in inflation, some factor in dues increase history and amortization. These were made by my husband as he is a numbers guy. I prefer to utilize the simple spreadsheets for myself and I defer my findings to him to look into further. But with that said based off what you said in laymen's terms they are very close to one another. I call that a win for Poly all day long for so many reasons. The only caveat would be if the person buying loves SSR and wants it as a home resort.

 

[Brian Noble]

There are absolutely intangible elements. But, if we are talking about purely dollars and cents, they are close enough to not matter.

That is probably not an accident, seeing as how Disney is setting the price for SSR's "sale".

 

[Sandisw]

Pet

Everyone has different experiences. I have not had those. There are ECV's at least every other bus ride, the wind doesnt shut down the Skyliner everyday. I had to wait for a Monorail, is was maybe 4 minutes at most, the bus comes around every 20 minutes. Thats a big difference.

Agree! I stay at RIV a lot and weather hasn’t had a major impact on our plans but 2 or 3 times?

I do think that transportation can be part of any one persons decision.

But, we all have different wants. I split stay because I love not having to rely on buses for 3 or the 4 parks.

And, I budget for using Lyft or Minnie van to AK in the morning

If I am evaluating the incentives, which is what this thread is about, one should always, IMO, choose the resort that you want as a home resort.

 

[VGCgroupie]

There are absolutely intangible elements. But, if we are talking about purely dollars and cents, they are close enough to not matter.

That is probably not an accident, seeing as how Disney is setting the price for SSR's "sale".

Thank you. Phew!

Personally I think that means Poly is the winner. But I completely understand that there are people who prefer SSR to Poly if they were stuck with only their home resort.

 

[Brian Noble]

I completely understand that there are people who prefer SSR to Poly if they were stuck with only their home resort.

I was just thinking about this. I might well be in that camp---I am a Villa person, and there is a 50% point premium to go from Resort View 1BR at SSR to Resort View 1BR at PVB. I am not sure PVB warrants that, but that's just me.

Then again, I have a long history of enjoying DVC's red-headed step children, so maybe I'm just being contrary for the sake of it.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I was just thinking about this. I might well be in that camp---I am a Villa person, and there is a 50% point premium to go from Resort View 1BR at SSR to Resort View 1BR at PVB. I am not sure PVB warrants that, but that's just me.

Then again, I have a long history of enjoying DVC's red-headed step children, so maybe I'm just being contrary for the sake of it.

I am one who would go to bat over CCV vs Poly any day due to point chart. But not SSR. So this is where the lines have to be drawn with feelings and numbers. That is why I always end my statement with disclaimers for those who love SSR since I have a bias in that I do not.

 

[eticketplease]

This is a pet peeve of mine, because so many people insist on straight-line division of purchase prices over the horizon rather than choosing some discount rate. When I point this out, 90% of the time the answer is "I'm going to spend it, not invest it, so it does not matter."

PVB still wins out on a cost-per-point basis if you use the current Cleveland Fed's estimate of long-term inflation (2.4%), and amortize each over the life of the contract to expiration, but it is a close thing. SSR's horizon is shorter (28 years) but at 200 points, bought by an existing member, its amortized per-year purchase cost is still about 5% lower than PVBs amortized over 40. PVB's lower dues (by about 9.4%) puts it back in the lead. If you assume dues will rise faster than inflation (I do) then PVB pulls a little farther ahead.

(Interestingly, the first-year difference favoring PVB is almost entirely the Anniversary savings.)

Even so, it is a lot closer than I thought it would be. If one expects one's future cash flows to rise faster than inflation (over 28 years, I do not, because I will retire well before halfway), then the SSR purchase could fit one's circumstances better than PVB, viewing each strictly as SAP.

Is this factoring 200 vs 200 or SSR 200 vs PVB 150?

The reason I ask was originally it was brought up that I can buy 50 more points as SSR so I wasn't sure if you are factoring dues on 50 less points at PVB

 

[VGCgroupie]

Is this factoring 200 vs 200 or SSR 200 vs PVB 150?

The reason I ask was originally it was brought up that I can buy 50 more points as SSR so I wasn't sure if you are factoring dues on 50 less points at PVB

Great catch!

 

[eticketplease]

I am one who would go to bat over CCV vs Poly any day due to point chart. But not SSR. So this is where the lines have to drawn with feelings and numbers. That is why I always end my statement with disclaimers for those who love SSR since I have a bias in that I do not.

Only thing SSR has over CCV is that they sleep 5 in the 1 bedroom as opposed to 4 at CCV so for those families of 5 are forced to upgrade to a 2 bedroom or sleep else where.

For you, me and most others CCV will always come out on top with families of 4 or less.

 

[eticketplease]

There are absolutely intangible elements. But, if we are talking about purely dollars and cents, they are close enough to not matter.

That is probably not an accident, seeing as how Disney is setting the price for SSR's "sale".

What about the thrown about claim that the owner only owns for 7-10 years and they go to sell at that point will the dollars and cents matter at that point?

Right now there is 27 useable years left at SSR and 39 for Poly as I don't count 2054 & 2066 since there are no points those years.

With 17 years left for SSR & 29 left for PVB I think we can all agree what will be selling for more at that point even if it is 50 more points on a SSR contract than PVB.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

I will be perfectly honest. I have spreadsheets, so many spreadsheets...

LOL, my DW was making fun of me for the spreadsheet I was making when I was initially buying into DVC. Sure, you can crunch the numbers and optimize the math. But for something that you're planning to be stuck with for many years & decades, choose wisely.

Sure, for the price, the money is an important part of the equation, but it shouldn't be the only thing. There are several resorts, themes, locations, amenities, transportation options, dining options, etc. Buy somewhere that you can book in the 11 month window and be happy with just in case you can't change it during the 7 month window.

 

[VGCgroupie]

LOL, my DW was making fun of me for the spreadsheet I was making when I was initially buying into DVC. Sure, you can crunch the numbers and optimize the math. But for something that you're planning to be stuck with for many years & decades, choose wisely.

Sure, for the price, the money is an important part of the equation, but it shouldn't be the only thing. There are several resorts, themes, locations, amenities, transportation options, dining options, etc. Buy somewhere that you can book in the 11 month window and be happy with just in case you can't change it during the 7 month window.

Yep I learned this. Numbers are important but experience is huge. That is why I was fortunate enough be able to take a spontaneous adult only resort hopping trip to decide where to add more points. This is how I learned that OKW/SSR are just not for me no matter the price. And how I learned that I needed to not sell my CCV and add on at BWV instead of BLT. I am so happy with my DVC portfolio that I have now.

 

[Brian Noble]

Is this factoring 200 vs 200 or SSR 200 vs PVB 150?

Total cost per point per year, as unrestricted SAP. 200 points at each. Held to expiration in both cases.

What about the thrown about claim that the owner only owns for 7-10 years and they go to sell at that point will the dollars and cents matter at that point?

That's often repeated, but probably not true. It was an analysis done years ago of how long contracts that were resold were held by the previous owner. It did not consider contracts that were not resold, and of course there are now resorts that are older (and have longer-held contracts) than they were then.

If someone were to ask me which resort they should buy with the intention of selling it seven years from now, my answer would be "rent."