So what is the low crowd time?

[mickeyluv'r]

I think the only time April would (may)be slow is at the end of the month when Easter falls early (end of March or very early April). Mother's Day is early May. We went once on that weekend and found WDW very busy and surprisingly HOT.

Everyone here always mentions schools, but the BIGGEST factor where crowds are concerned is weather. It is a significant part of why prediction websites are often wrong. Folks who live a short distance form WDW will mostly only go when weather is nice, and especially if it is the first nice weekend after a period of rain/cold/high heat.

The classic reason for the slower times of Jan and late summer have much to do with unfavorable weather: cold, hurricanes, rain, heat. After Christmas was also slow because folks spend so much on Christmas season.

That said, the start of Jan and MLKjr weekend are both pretty busy. February also has some busy times: Pres week, spillover from the Daytona 500, and Mardi Gras. There's also the post-Superbowl Parade and Disney events like races and cheer events.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

the week after Labor Day, that's about it these days. maybe the end of January (after MLK weekend) up through Presidents Day (unless there is a running event in there somewhere - running events are NOT low crowds). But January is also prime teen tour group season and February brings the cheerleaders.

The week before Labor Day was pretty dead in 2015 but there was a possible hurricane approaching. The hurricane petered out in Cuba and never got there.

April is NOT walk on everything time. in 2016, Easter is in March, so there may be a better atmosphere in April than in years where Easter is in that month.

 

[anniemae]

I have also heard May is a pretty good time to go

 

[epcotty]

I wonder what percentage have an annual pass and live locally so can go whenever, seems it must be a larger percentage all the time

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I've heard good things about September 13th between 9:03am and 9:14am.

 

[DavidHobart]

The Your First Visit crowd calendars are getting dated, particulary for the fall months like October, which that site describes as "low". Search disboards for info about the October 2015 crowds from people who were actually there & you'll see that's inaccurate. I think a lot of the usual crowd calendar sources are relying more on info about how crowds used to be at Disney vs. how they've begun to change in the last few years. Fall is the "new summer" at Disney World now, in terms of crowds.

All crowd calendars these days--mine included--are relative calendars--that is a date is "low," compared to alternative dates, "high," compared to alternative dates. So if you thought October was bad, wait til New Years Eve, when peak waits will hit 5 hours, and tell me then that October was high!

Having been in October 2015 myself (and January, and February, and April, and September, and November, and next weekend), I can assure you that waits in October 2015--two weeks of which I describe on my site as low--will still be better than the waits in March and July 2016!! So, no, fall is not the new summer. It's not even the new March.

The other thing about crowd calendars is that they don't predict crowds--they predict ride waits. FastPass+ has wildly thrown the perceptions about this off, and really messed with some crowd calendars based solely on peak standby waits. Pirates used to be a non-FASTPASS ride, so standby wait times used to equal wait times. Now, with 80% of its capacity dedicated to FP+, 80% of its riders see next to no waits other than confusion around the Mickey reader, and the 20% on standby can see peak waits of 30-50 minutes on even "low" crowd Fall days. So the correct description of Pirates waits is not crowd level 10 based on its peak standby waits of 50 minutes, but rather to view its weighted peak wait as 10 minutes. (.2*50 minutes + .8*0 minutes). No crowd calendar except mine and Josh's has got this approach factored into it--relative waits of the full set of users compared to relative waits at other times of the year.

A crowd calendar based solely on peak standby waits (which is the kind where all these claims of "10s in September and October" come from) will be accurate only for those who attend only during the peak wait time of the day, and who also don't use FastPass+. Not a bit. Not at all. Not just three--zero.

For the fall--and every other time of year--more than ever before the trick is to avoid parks on days they predictably will be overwhelmed, arrive early and knock off some high demand rides via standby before waits build, and use FastPass+ wisely, and also to have enough days at MK in particular so that you have lots of rope drop and FP+ opportunities, and thus don't have to get into standby mid day at Pirates, the Haunted Mansion, or the Jungle Cruise, for example. This will, I think, soon become more important than when you go...

 

[k5thbeatle]

"Low crowds"...I think the term is relative and has seen a change over the years. What is a "low" crowd now might be considered "packed" 10 years ago. I agree with those that say "low" crowds are not so low these days. That being said there are still times that are "less" crowded than others but for the most part (for the most part) the days of going when the park is almost empty are pretty much gone or far and few between!

 

[epcotty]

I really don't know if 80% of Pirates' capacity dedicated to FP+ would translate to 80% of people Fastpassing it. Many would as a 4th, 5th etc but then their first 3 would've had to go through by then and they might not want to delay going on it and they might have other priorities after their first 3. I think this could be said about a lot of attractions. But I liked the other points in the post

 

[DavidHobart]

I really don't know if 80% of Pirates' capacity dedicated to FP+ would translate to 80% of people Fastpassing it.

What I mean is that during the peak wait times of the day, that 80% of the people experiencing the ride get it through FastPass+. FastPass+ for many traditional b-list rides was unavailable day of, or beyond mid morning day of, many times this fall. That was much less true the same dates last year. So the full FP+ allocation of capacity was being used, other than first thing in the morning and late evening when people balk at their FP+ schedule and go back to their hotel instead....

 

[MataHari22]

The Your First Visit crowd calendars are getting dated, particulary for the fall months like October, which that site describes as "low". Search disboards for info about the October 2015 crowds from people who were actually there & you'll see that's inaccurate. I think a lot of the usual crowd calendar sources are relying more on info about how crowds used to be at Disney vs. how they've begun to change in the last few years. Fall is the "new summer" at Disney World now, in terms of crowds.

The original post was back in mid October before it was clear that the crowd calendars were going to be way off, it was still "accurate" at the time I posted. Yes, I am aware there ended up to be an unprecedented amount of crowd level tens in October. I read easywdw and touring plans updates daily. I was just down in November, all the crowd level predictions for the time I was going, had predicted it would be even less crowded than my usual October trips. Before I left, after seeing that trend in October, all the levels were upped. They were still off. It was even busier still. There were days that were level 10 while I was on my trip. It was way worse than any time in October I've even been. So, bottom line, is all times are getting busier across the board. There may be slower times than others to go, but it seems the times of super empty park days, are a rarity.

 

[JennyDrake]

Here now. I love Josh at easywdw, but first week of December is NOT a low crowd week, at least not anymore. Feels like third week of June to me. I just want to hole up in my hotel room and hide from these crowds. I'd say minimum level 7 or 8.

ACK. I was afraid of that. I will be there Saturday.... last year it wasn't TOO bad, but every time I have been this year, crowds have been semi to full blown miserable by 1 pm in 3 of the 4 parks.....

 

[Shanti]

All crowd calendars these days--mine included--are relative calendars--that is a date is "low," compared to alternative dates, "high," compared to alternative dates. So if you thought October was bad, wait til New Years Eve, when peak waits will hit 5 hours, and tell me then that October was high!

Having been in October 2015 myself (and January, and February, and April, and September, and November, and next weekend), I can assure you that waits in October 2015--two weeks of which I describe on my site as low--will still be better than the waits in March and July 2016!! So, no, fall is not the new summer. It's not even the new March.

The other thing about crowd calendars is that they don't predict crowds--they predict ride waits. FastPass+ has wildly thrown the perceptions about this off, and really messed with some crowd calendars based solely on peak standby waits. Pirates used to be a non-FASTPASS ride, so standby wait times used to equal wait times. Now, with 80% of its capacity dedicated to FP+, 80% of its riders see next to no waits other than confusion around the Mickey reader, and the 20% on standby can see peak waits of 30-50 minutes on even "low" crowd Fall days. So the correct description of Pirates waits is not crowd level 10 based on its peak standby waits of 50 minutes, but rather to view its weighted peak wait as 10 minutes. (.2*50 minutes + .8*0 minutes). No crowd calendar except mine and Josh's has got this approach factored into it--relative waits of the full set of users compared to relative waits at other times of the year.

A crowd calendar based solely on peak standby waits (which is the kind where all these claims of "10s in September and October" come from) will be accurate only for those who attend only during the peak wait time of the day, and who also don't use FastPass+. Not a bit. Not at all. Not just three--zero.

For the fall--and every other time of year--more than ever before the trick is to avoid parks on days they predictably will be overwhelmed, arrive early and knock off some high demand rides via standby before waits build, and use FastPass+ wisely, and also to have enough days at MK in particular so that you have lots of rope drop and FP+ opportunities, and thus don't have to get into standby mid day at Pirates, the Haunted Mansion, or the Jungle Cruise, for example. This will, I think, soon become more important than when you go...

I followed crowd calenders' predictions for a trip in January 2009 and was rewarded with low crowd levels and many walk-on rides.

5 years later I also followed crowd calendar advice on low levels and went in early February (nowhere near President's Day), during the week, avoiding EMH days, not hitting MK on Monday, etc. We encountered long lines and waits everywhere, and truly oppressive crowds in some places. 30+ minute wait for Spaceship Earth mid-morning, for example; shoulder to shoulder crowds in some parts of Animal Kingdom. Even the CM's seemed bewildered by it.

After that experience I decided to go when worked best for our family (during school holidays and weekends), not when the crowd calendars said to go. So our next trips were during March spring break and 4th of July weekend 2015. Were there crowds? Yes, but no worse than the ones we'd coped with the year before in February. Plus, the hours were longer. In July we got a good summer discount on the resort, and the Orlando summer weather was milder than what we're used to here in Central Texas.

My experience mirrors what many others on the boards here have described: a recent (past 2 years) surge in crowds and waits during traditional low periods, while traditional high seasons have held steady. It seems there has been a major shift in attendance patterns at WDW in recent years, and the crowd calendars haven't kept up.

Saying that it's all relative is a cop-out if you're in the business of guiding people to low crowd times. Just be honest and show on the calendar that there are very few of those any more. It's better when people can go to the parks prepared for heavy crowds and long waits, than when they're taken by surprise.

 

[aimes0105]

I think looking at all the info Josh and Dave have on their sites and then being upset at long lines in the middle of the day is a lot of the problem and you're missing half their point. Just because a day is recommended and a level 4 doesn't mean you're going to walk on to a popular ride at 1pm. You still need to take into consideration their points on rope drop and using fastpass wisely. We've been in June twice now and never waited more than 20 minutes for an attraction and we've done SDMT, met A&E, SM, TSM, etc. You just have to plan your days well.

 

[TiffanyA]

I would say late January for the combo of low crowds and great weather. The only place we encountered "lines" were in Fantasyland where Peter Pan was 50 minutes Longest wait we saw in the entire MK that day. We pretty much walked onto every ride and all the mountains, except Splash - we had a 10 minute wait. The other parks were dead as well.

 

[nym4588]

We just did the week before Thanksgiving and it was great as far as crowds.

 

[mshanson3121]

For disneyworld? I was talking to a friend and they said they had heard April was a low crowd time. Is that so? and are there any other times?

This is really subjective. We've only gone once in June, it was busy. Crowd levels 8/9. A friend of mine went the week before Halloween - people on this board were complaining about how "crowded" it was. I was looking at her photos and thinking the place was empty (in comparison to when we went). So, what one person considers crowded, another person considers nice, depending on when they normally go.

Any time school is in session, that is not near a holiday, is going to be your best time.

 

[PeasandCarrots]

I would not call April low. It's moderate. It's basically crowded all the time it's just levels of crowds. We went for 5 days at Labor day (Friday - Tuesday) and the crowds were the lowest we had seen them in a while based on wait times. I went in April this year also and it was pretty crowded but not unmanageable.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Wow 80% of a ride dedicated to FP. I assume the other rides are just as high if needed.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

There are low crowds?

Traditional thinking used to be that November prior to thanksgiving, Jan and Feb were the lowest crowds. How did we know that? Disney used to tell us! That was when all the sales were on and they even billed the sales as begin the "slow" part of the year for them. You still see it a little bit in for example the fluctuation of dvc points for a room in a particular time of year and when they label the premium months.

In years since, the rising middle class in Brazil combined with extensive Disney marketing has filled in those months.

You will never find a month like that anymore. You may find some days that due to the odd angle of the moon or the alignment of the stars not as many people booked. However, those are neigh impossible to predict.

RELATIVELY speaking, after October and before Thanksgiving and between Christmas break and before spring break, and after spring break and prior to when schools let out are LOWER times than other times. You can't really pin it on a calendar though as spring break can change year to year Just do a little research.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I still think schools are a huge factor. Any time when most kids will be in school (September for example) will be lower crowds. Summer is most definitely very crowded because of schools being out, despite the brutally hot weather and constant thunder and lightning storms. And of course Christmas week, when most schools get a substantial winter break. And then all of the spring break weeks.

I think though there has been an uptick in October, November and early December because more and more people are willing to pull their kids out to try to hit decent weather and a slightly lower crowd period. Although it sounds like some of these weeks aren't much better than summer anymore in terms of crowds, although the weather being better helps.