Miumiu4me makes a good point, I would say that all bets are off on weekends, as you never know about local visitors--many of my Florida friends will make day trips to Disney on weekends. I think the crowd calendars are generally more reliable for mid-week. I also like the crowd calendars for tips on which parks are likely to most crowded. For example, yesterday was a "red" day at MK, partly because of the evening extra magic hours (on-site guests who don't have park hoppers but want to use EMH are more likely to go to MK for the day). I try to avoid the red parks when I can. We have visited a few times in the first week of February, which is similar (according to the crowd calendar) to the upcoming week before Thanksgiving or the week after Thanksgiving. The weekends generally do feel crowded, but the weekdays are better. In the morning the parks feel empty, but the parks do get more crowded mid-day--especially near the parade route and in quick-service restaurants.