Should DVC Keep Expanding?

[JWG]

If the demand is there, go for it. 400,000 members or 4,000,000,000 members we have the same opportunity to book our home resort in that advanced booking window. And, if we miss that, we have more choices for a stay elsewhere. For example, OKW used to be the "fall back" (for those that believe there are fall back resorts) before SSR. Then OKW and SSR were the fall backs. Now, OKW, SSR and AKV can be considered fallbacks as I've not heard too many people not able to get AKV - Savannah view at 7 mos outside of peak DVC times.

So, as long as they keep enough resort opportunities at WDW and DL to offset those owners at non-Disney locations (Vero, HH, Aulani) who "trade" out by booking into WDW/DL - I'm super.

I own where I want to stay, so I'm always happy with my home resort. If I decide to try and stay elsewhere it's a bonus if it's available and understood if it's not. More choices sound great to me.

 

[deebits]

Iam all for expansion at the GF and the Poly but I agree we don't need another SSR .

Iam a SSR owner...bought in 5 years ago when that was all disney was selling. I DO love the place and would still enjoy staying there.(especially the walk to DTD)
BUT...Iam embarrased to say ..we have NEVER stayed there yet!

Over the last 5 years..we have booked ONLY at the 7 month window and stayed at BCV 3 times, AKLV CONCIERGE!!, BLT, VWL.
And in a few weeks we will be staying at BWV with a boardwalk view!

So if iam the typical SSR owner then another similar huge stand alone resort might not be a good idea for the 7 month window.

I am the same as you. We purchased SSR as our first resort and have yet to stay there. The 7 month window gods have smiled on us.

If you look at how Aulani is doing, I think it will take a lot to build in the USA. From the members sign in page, they are still offering to the first 800 people who purchase 160 points the tile. If anything I think Japan would be a new DVC

I strongly believe GF DVC is coming with BLT selling out soon, they need a strong resort to draw new members.

 

[TisBit]

The flipside of that is will DVC services decline if DVC has zero growth?

Absolutely.....zero expansion, zero reason to continue providing unique services....just abide by the contractual terms

 

[taaren]

They need to expand the DVC presence in California. They have a park there (or two) yet the VGC are so few. Plus with the possibility of people going to Aulani maybe doing a stopover for a few days at DL, it w/b nice to be able to get a DVD room there.

Yep, I'm with you here. I think more parks DVC development is needed at parks other than WDW. I would buy more points at a Disneyland Hotel DVC. I'd wager that many Europeans would buy at a Disneyland Paris DVC. Also the Tokyo Disneyland/HK Disneyland, those could use DVC options and they'd sell well since they're attached to parks. I'm glad they didn't develop the land they owned at Newport Beach since that's just too far from the Land for my taste, even if they had a regularly scheduled shuttle. Would love to trade into a DLP DVC. It seems like they have enough variety and trouble selling AK & SSR that they'd want to slow down at the World while focusing at other options where they have a semi-captive audience.

 

[DisneyEater]

Absolutely.....zero expansion, zero reason to continue providing unique services....just abide by the contractual terms

It is a very good point.

 

[Breyean]

If you look at how Aulani is doing, I think it will take a lot to build in the USA. From the members sign in page, they are still offering to the first 800 people who purchase 160 points the tile. If anything I think Japan would be a new DVC

Actually, we just finished our Aulani purchase process. We called the Quality Assurance people just to make sure everything we did everything right and while talking with them (they seem to be pretty much on the ball) I mentioned the tile.

The CM told me the USA tiles had sold out a couple of days before I called, and that my contract was done in the last week that tiles were still available on the USA program. She knew that because my contract was close to the cut off and there have been discussions about whether to move some of the USA qualifiers to the Japan side since they are not filling up as fast as expected.

 

[babster462]

Once again I think it is important to buy where you want to stay. I own at SSR and even though we have tried all the other resorts, I still prefer my home resort. I love the privacy and it is beautiful there. I love being able to walk to Downtown Disney. It all depends on what is important to you. They can expand all they want but one thing will never change- I can book the resort I love, SSR, at my 11 month window and I am happy about that!!

 

[DisneyEater]

Once again I think it is important to buy where you want to stay. I own at SSR and even though we have tried all the other resorts, I still prefer my home resort. I love the privacy and it is beautiful there. I love being able to walk to Downtown Disney. It all depends on what is important to you. They can expand all they want but one thing will never change- I can book the resort I love, SSR, at my 11 month window and I am happy about that!!

I understand that theory, which is why I purchased at my favorite resort OKW. However, I want to stay at every resort, and will probably want to revisit some after I have tried them all. So, while I may want to stay at OKW the most, I want to stay at all of the resorts.

 

[BeesKnees]

Once again I think it is important to buy where you want to stay. I own at SSR and even though we have tried all the other resorts, I still prefer my home resort. I love the privacy and it is beautiful there. I love being able to walk to Downtown Disney. It all depends on what is important to you. They can expand all they want but one thing will never change- I can book the resort I love, SSR, at my 11 month window and I am happy about that!!

I agree with that but sometimes you just don't know and now I am in a position of owning at VWL and loving OKW. We didn't even understand the importance of it until SSR was filling up and many of them began exploring their 7 month options.

I wish there was a system of trading 11 month windows. I am sure somewhere out there an OKW owner has fallen in love with VWL and would like my window without the hassle of trading rentals or selling and re-purchasing contracts.

 

[ssawka]

I am not saying they should not build at all. They need to keep up with demand, but there are 3 very large resorts currently selling now plus DVC has not been exercising ROFR. I am just suggesting that further add-ons should be smaller to meet but not exceed demand.

But you said that one of your concerns is not being able to book other resorts at the 7 month mark. To me that sounds like a very selfish reason to want DVD to limit expansion. The fact that 3 resorts have not yet sold out and that DVD is not exercising ROFR may indicate that DVD is not meeting demand. DVC resorts are not a commodity and different people have different taste. I do agree that they should really evaluate building a resort as large as SSR, especially if it is not close to a theme park.

You are not concerned with too many DVC resorts in WDW resulting in you not being able to book at BCV or VWL at the 7 month window?

 

[dizfan]

The fact that 3 resorts have not yet sold out and that DVD is not exercising ROFR may indicate that DVD is not meeting demand.

According to Doc's Resource post, after BWV opened, it was 4 years and a few months before it was sold out.

Kidani, BLT, and THV all opened in 2009. (As did VGC)

DVD is likely very happy with the sales pace compared to what they thought at the start of 2009.

 

[ssawka]

According to Doc's Resource post, after BWV opened, it was 4 years and a few months before it was sold out.

Kidani, BLT, and THV all opened in 2009. (As did VGC)

DVD is likely very happy with the sales pace compared to what they thought at the start of 2009.

Right, but DisneyEater premise was that DVC has too much supply since there are three resorts that are still not sold out. All I was saying was that resorts are not a commodity and there may be a very good reason why some of the resorts are not selling as well as others.

 

[Dean]

The flipside of that is will DVC services decline if DVC has zero growth?

Other resorts have seemed to prove that scenario.

A mega-size resort that isn't bigger than it's demand doesn't have the same impact on the program. In fact, it possibly serves as a pressure relief valve, taking some of the demand away from the smaller resorts and making it easier to book at them.

If and only if availability somewhere is the goal. Otherwise the smaller resorts will book up first and then some will take the lessor demand resorts as a second or third choice. For those of us who also exchange in, lower demand but great resorts are a major plus because it ensures availability for exchanging in.

 

[Dean]

BUT...Iam embarrased to say ..we have NEVER stayed there yet!

Even though I feel there are obvious and negative affects to the system due to the SSR resort coming on board, I don't think there's any reason to be embarrassed about using the system as set up. There's no problem using the points at the 7 mo window if there is availability you're happy with.

 

[BeesKnees]

Other resorts have seemed to prove that scenario.

Of course. Running a business is like trying to survive in the extreme cold without the proper gear. If you stop you die. If you move too fast and you can't get what you need to replenish the calories you die. It is all about finding a pace.

 

[Dean]

Of course. Running a business is like trying to survive in the extreme cold without the proper gear. If you stop you die. If you move too fast and you can't get what you need to replenish the calories you die. It is all about finding a pace.

Actually that's not the reason per se. The reason is not related to growth and stagnation but rather keeping the system attractive to new buyers. Once you no longer have that incentive, even a well run system will lose something and a poorly run system will eventually fall apart or else be very expensive to rehab back to an appropriate level. Also, it's VERY difficult to regain ratings with II or RCI once you've lost them.

 

[mecllap]

I'm fine with them expanding in other places -- would like a Caribbean destination, etc. But I don't want any more lodging near WDW until there are more attractions and space in the Parks -- they are too crowded and lines too long most of the year now. Another park would help; more attractions (not just updating) would help; wider walkways would also be good. Closer parking with a second entrance to MK would be helpful.

 

[DisneyEater]

I'm fine with them expanding in other places -- would like a Caribbean destination, etc. But I don't want any more lodging near WDW until there are more attractions and space in the Parks -- they are too crowded and lines too long most of the year now. Another park would help; more attractions (not just updating) would help; wider walkways would also be good. Closer parking with a second entrance to MK would be helpful.

While I agree the parks can be crowded, I am not sure that DVC has that much of an impact on that.

 

[BeesKnees]

Actually that's not the reason per se. The reason is not related to growth and stagnation but rather keeping the system attractive to new buyers. Once you no longer have that incentive, even a well run system will lose something and a poorly run system will eventually fall apart or else be very expensive to rehab back to an appropriate level. Also, it's VERY difficult to regain ratings with II or RCI once you've lost them.

New buyers requires growth and the incentive is not just to new buyers but to the business itself in the way of future profits. We are still saying the same thing.

 

[hakepb]

Right, but DisneyEater premise was that DVC has too much supply since there are three resorts that are still not sold out. All I was saying was that resorts are not a commodity and there may be a very good reason why some of the resorts are not selling as well as others.

Part of the reason is the marketing/sales push. Right now BLT is the sales push.
(Ie on the webcast, they mentioned BLT and Aulani)
I think that is partially because another MK or Monorail resort is on the way, and partially that Disney is now financing DVC mortgages. (DVC used to get paid in full by an external company at contract closing, so I'm guessing SSR and AKV have already paid for their construction bill in full)