September crowds comparison

mom-cubed

Earning My Ears
Joined
Aug 22, 2023
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My DH and I went to WDW in September 2021, before international boarders opened up, there was virtually no wait for anything until the weekend. (We walked on to Rise of the Resistance and walked into every sit down restaurant with no reservation). We are taking our kids September 2023 and seeing crowd calendars all over the place, did anyone go in September last year with an update on crowds? We are aware that the crowds will be larger this year just because international boarders are open, post-pandemic, and everyone is making up for missed vacation but I would just like a little heads up on crowds for my mental planning. Thanks
 
We went September 9th-16th last year. It was very crowded and I was upset to say the least because we only went for lower crowds. There are no more slow months. It’s either busy or super busy.
This makes me super apprehensive now, those are basically our dates but for this year. I have seen where some calendars are predicting low to below average crowds and others above average but not sure if that is average for that day or for Disney.
 
Definitely do not compare 2022 to this year, travel last year was super covid-y since everyone started traveling much much more than 2020 and 2021, this year has already been lighter. 2022 was off the charts in crowds with the revenge travel (I hate that term), and crowd predictions that were way off because of it. We do have to face facts that for the most part, Disney is always crowded now but there are times it will be less so and September of this year is one of them. I just don't think the disney with super low crowds really exists anymore. But, the earlier in September you can go, the better as that's going to be less crowded and as you get closer to Oct, crowds will tick up.

We've been several times this year and last year and this year's crowds, overall, (not picking out oddball peak travel dates), have been less. We went spring break 2022 and compared to this year, 2022 was much, much more crowded. Same for our summer visit, we went the first week of Aug last year, compared to this year, it was noticeably less guests this past month. Are parks empty? Definitely not, but are these trips enjoyable? Absolutely! Our trip a few week's back was great. If anyone's goal is to avoid crowds completely, then they need not visit WDW.

Also, keep in mind that super crowded feeling parks can still have manageable wait times and not as crowded parks can have really crazy high wait times. This is due to park absorption rates (guests to ride/attraction ratios), G+ LL and ride closures. Don't let crowd calendars and open travel scare you off.
 

Sept 2023 is likely to be in between Sept ‘21 and ‘22. It’s hard to precisely predict because it’s not a solid thing. There’s an ebb and flow. You can end up at AK on a Monday that’s a ghost town and the next HS is having a rough day - somewhat busy with higher wait times than expected. Weather, APs, and ride downtimes together can shift it up or down. A beautiful Sat evening at MK might could feel very busy and the next morning feel like a third of the attendance.

So generally speaking I’d expect a 3 and if lucky swing a 2 (eta- and be prepared to encounter a 4 or 5 bottleneck). Also generally speaking, WDW is less busy in ‘23 than ‘22. Domestically less traffic to WDW and it’s not being totally offset by international returning. Keep in mind while these folks may be eager to get back, prices have increased enough to compare other options.
 
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At the Magic Kingdom, this August is trending well below 2019 and 2022. September is usually a lighter month. I would expect the lower wait trends to continue then too.

thrill-data.com/graph/ext/0/1/9417
 
Labor Day Weekend is before your trip. I would think that would be the busiest time in September. If there’s a hurricane, people flock to Disney to get away from the coasts.
 
Wondering how the week after Labor Day might be.
There really is no slow season anymore. Though with more schools back in session after Labor Day, I’d think after would have a bit less people than before.
 














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