ROFR Thread Oct to Dec 2020 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[cheygirl]

i have more respect for Disney when they take quickly instead of dragging out. Good luck on next one!

I agree! I feel for the people who are waiting months. Thank you!

 

[Paul Stupin]

It's all coming back by mid 2022, the problem is these 28,000 employees aren't all selling dole whips. Talented engage people aren't growing on trees. Most of those people have kept their jobs during this. To retrain some of these jobs is going to be fairly difficult. On the plus side, the Disney brand will always attract performers for these shows and the turnover is probably higher than we imagine as people go on to bigger things or a different career. I think the level of service will probably suffer and the longer people that go without some of this stuff, the easier it will be for them to remove it indefinitely.

I wouldn’t bet against Disney’s ability to bounce back. Even if they’re not flooding the parks now (though I believe at least anecdotally they seem busier), people will when they feel safer.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Finally we passed !!! Good luck to everyone!

Thank for updating. Each piece of news is helpful and interesting. Welcome Home!

 

[strumy]

The layoffs announced yesterday have chilled me. I was not really worried about the future of the parks, but now I am. I don’t think the parks will go away, but right now it seems like a very real possibility that the experience will change dramatically.

Things will be off kilter till 2022 without a doubt. We went in late summer and it was different, but distinctly Disney even with many CMs in furlough. Some of our best interactions ever with CMs occurred on that trip. The parks dont need to make money right now, just not hemorrhage cash. With 25% capacity the parks can make modest profits. Once vaccine distribution occurs at scale, people are going to be losing their minds to get out and "catch up" on lost memories and experiences. You cannot replace this type of engagement with online content or adjusting distribution of films etc. Im going to say something unpopular now. Many of the CMs don't really have anywhere to go. While I certainly feel for them and wish them the best right now, the entire industry is currently at a standstill so they will find something to bide their time and then return as the parks expand capacity. Everything right now is about managing cash flow and putting on a show / experience ranks in the multiple million a year in salary and operational costs. We will see the changes, but to my 3 year old it was as magical as it could be.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Looks like a 25 point BWV just got an offer listed at $185/pt.....that does seem insane given the direct price is $200 so I have to believe the actual price at least starts with a 17

I saw that one too. I’d love a small points BWV contract, but for that much money, I‘d happily pay the extra and just buy direct, and get unrestricted points the same day.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Let me be more clear about what is so chilling regarding this layoff situation. I don’t think the layoffs were necessary. Disney made a management decision to not take care of its employees, even though they could have chosen to do so. They have plenty of cash on hand and access to debt. There is traffic in the parks bringing in income. I think this is an opportunistic chance for them to clean house and reduce their labor costs long term, not a decision they were forced to make due to the pandemic. I too, think that traffic in the parks will eventually return to normal levels and the parks will continue to operate. But I’m afraid the experience might be significantly different. The live entertainment is huge part of what makes Disney so magical. Len from www.touringplans.com just did a podcast that outlined what it would take for Disney to have kept all 28,000 employees and his run of the numbers was very eye-opening.

 

[Stargazer65]

I often see it stated on resale offers that for closings in December, Disney requires 2021 dues be included in the contract. I'm awaiting ROFR. What happens if my contract doesn't close by the end of November as the contract states? I hear about extensions, but my contract doesn't include 2021 dues so do they have to do a new contract?

 

[jbreen2010]

I often see it stated on resale offers that for closings in December, Disney requires 2021 dues be included in the contract. I'm awaiting ROFR. What happens if my contract doesn't close by the end of November as the contract states? I hear about extensions, but my contract doesn't include 2021 dues so do they have to do a new contract?

If they don’t get back to by closing on ROFR, reach out to title and broker. DVC has effectively waived their ROFR at that point and legally they have to issue to allow the closing.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Let me be more clear about what is so chilling regarding this layoff situation. I don’t think the layoffs were necessary. Disney made a management decision to not take care of its employees, even though they could have chosen to do so. They have plenty of cash on hand and access to debt. There is traffic in the parks bringing in income. I think this is an opportunistic chance for them to clean house and reduce their labor costs long term, not a decision they were forced to make due to the pandemic. I too, think that traffic in the parks will eventually return to normal levels and the parks will continue to operate. But I’m afraid the experience might be significantly different. The live entertainment is huge part of what makes Disney so magical. Len from www.touringplans.com just did a podcast that outlined what it would take for Disney to have kept all 28,000 employees and his run of the numbers was very eye-opening.

I totally agree that Disney is using the pandemic as an excuse to cheapen the park experience. I did not see the entertainment layoffs until you mentioned them today, but I was really disgusted by the GF orchestra layoffs and even DH, who slashes and burns for a living, said that Disney top executive salaries are unconscionable when they are getting rid of that orchestra. My jaw nearly dropped on the floor when he said that. I am definitely conservative but executive salaries have been a personal pet peeve of mine for some time. This is the first time dh actually agreed with me. Those performers are Disney and should not be tossed aside to slice a couple of million dollars off of their balance sheet. They are not commodities.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I totally agree that Disney is using the pandemic as an excuse to cheapen the park experience. I did not see the entertainment layoffs until you mentioned them today, but I was really disgusted by the GF orchestra layoffs and even DH, who slashes and burns for a living, said that Disney top executive salaries are unconscionable when they are getting rid of that orchestra. My jaw nearly dropped on the floor when he said that. I am definitely conservative but executive salaries have been a personal pet peeve of mine for some time. This is the first time dh actually agreed with me. Those performers are Disney and should not be tossed aside to slice a couple of million dollars off of their balance sheet. They are not commodities.

 

[limace]

Len testa does a great bit about this on his most recent Disney Dish podcast-I highly recommend.

 

[Grumpy Mouse]

Disney's Experiences segment generates a SIGNIFICANT portion of their yearly revenue. Before the pandemic, it was the fastest growing segment, but the "rolling closures" of its parks around the world have literally eaten their lunch - but most notably the extended closure of Disneyland. What the heck do you do when a major revenue generator could conceivably be closed for up to 1.5 YEARS? (unless they prevail in an almost certain lawsuit).

You trim your most significant cost - labor. You can talk about trimming executive pay, but it's a drop in the bucket to aggregate labor cost. It's the sad reality of large publicly traded corporations.

And you should be happy that Florida is a pro-business state or it might be far worse. You could be trying to dump your DVC properties for next to nothing - because Disney wouldn't be buying them.

The good news is this will all turn on news of one or more approved vaccines. Most of these folks are in for a difficult Christmas, but it will get better quickly next year.

 

[ddubaynavarro]

I’m so excited! We finally heard back. I can’t wait to tell my kids. I begged my husband to go to Disney five years ago and he agreed begrudgingly (he had never been). He loved it and agreed to go every other year. Fast forward and he has agreed to twice per year. We have two girls, ages seven and nine. I am so happy to be able to share many more trips in the future with them! This year has been tough on everybody I know. I’m in healthcare and my husband is a police officer. This has been an incredibly tense and tiring year, so this is some welcome news.

Kmedders---$115-$19600-160-AKV-Sep-0/19, 160/20, 160/21, 160/22- sent 9/14, passed 10/28

Thank you both for your service to the community. Much appreciated and congrats!

 

[Paul Stupin]

Let me be more clear about what is so chilling regarding this layoff situation. I don’t think the layoffs were necessary. Disney made a management decision to not take care of its employees, even though they could have chosen to do so. They have plenty of cash on hand and access to debt. There is traffic in the parks bringing in income. I think this is an opportunistic chance for them to clean house and reduce their labor costs long term, not a decision they were forced to make due to the pandemic. I too, think that traffic in the parks will eventually return to normal levels and the parks will continue to operate. But I’m afraid the experience might be significantly different. The live entertainment is huge part of what makes Disney so magical. Len from www.touringplans.com just did a podcast that outlined what it would take for Disney to have kept all 28,000 employees and his run of the numbers was very eye-opening.

I respectfully disagree. With the Orlando parks at 25% capacity, and both Disneyland and California Adventure closed, there’s no possible current scenario that has the Parks division in a good place right now. And, ultimately, they’re a public company and they have a responsibility to their shareholders to reduce costs. I think they put it off for as long as they could, but the tipping point happened a few weeks ago when California issued guidelines that basically mean the California parks won’t open for months. As much as we don’t like it, this is how large corporations work. And, across the board, I’m sure some of these cost savings measures will persist after the pandemic ends.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I respectfully disagree. With the Orlando parks at 25% capacity, and both Disneyland and California Adventure closed, there’s no possible current scenario that has the Parks division in a good place right now. And, ultimately, they’re a public company and they have a responsibility to their shareholders to reduce costs. I think they put it off for as long as they could, but the tipping point happened a few weeks ago when California issued guidelines that basically mean the California parks won’t open for months. As much as we don’t like it, this is how large corporations work. And, across the board, I’m sure some of these cost savings measures will persist after the pandemic ends.

Did you listen to the podcast or do you just disagree in theory?

 

[limace]

I agree with EM-Len Tesla is a statistician and knows his numbers and his analysis was very helpful, I thought.

 

[Brianstl]

Did you listen to the podcast or do you just disagree in theory?

First, there were many problems with Testa's math. He didn't take into account the additional 30-40% it cost Disney to employ someone above their salary.

Second, Iger's compensation makes up over 50% of Disney's senior executive compensation. Iger has a contract with Disney. The rest of the board and Chapek can't make Iger take a pay cut. Iger needs to offer to take a compensation cut for Disney to effectively reduce senior executive compensation in any meaningful way. And while I think most CEO's are way overpaid, you can argue Chapek agreed to a reduced salary when he took the job. His first year compensation will be at least 50% below anyone serving in a similar role to him at a comparable media company. Most of the other executives outside the most senior ranks in Burbank at Disney are already making less than they would in a similar position at a competing media company. They stay at Disney because they love the idea of Disney, but Disney runs a real risk of losing those people if they force them to take a pay cut. Disney has already been bleeding talent to other media companies.

I guess my point is Testa should address his criticism solely to one person, Iger.

 

[Grumpy Mouse]

I agree with EM-Len Tesla is a statistician and knows his numbers and his analysis was very helpful, I thought.

Statistics have little to do with how publicly traded corporations work.

If you don't know anything about Disney's stock price over the past 5 years, I suggest a little research. In general, executives of public companies are compensated based on the performance of their stock during their tenure. Well, Disney's stock (NYSE:$DIS) has been "stuck in the mud" for 5 years now - mainly due to woes with ESPN. There has been much pressure from the market to expand the media business and to reduce cost in other areas. Many have been calling for the elimination of Disney's dividend, which won't make shareholders happy. Furthermore, their debt load is considerable after the Fox acquisition.

So while theoretically additional employees could be carried - either with cash on hand or more debt - the market - the shareholders would NOT look on the action favorably. And too much debt brings additional unfavorable actions - like credit rating downgrades. All bad news for Disney's stock price - and therefore bad news for Disney executives.

You might not like it, but this is how public corporations work. Their primary mission is to maximize value for the owners - the shareholders of the company.

 

[Pxedstqn98]

Pxedstqn98---$172-$9368-50-CCV@WL-Apr-0/19, 0/20, 50/21, 50/22- sent 10/1

This will be my first DVC contract, went resale first and then will go back and buy from Disney in order to get my perks. Just cannot decide on what resort to buy yet

 

[CP3uhoh]

First, there were many problems with Testa's math. He didn't take into account the additional 30-40% it cost Disney to employ someone above their salary.

Second, Iger's compensation makes up over 50% of Disney's senior executive compensation. Iger has a contract with Disney. The rest of the board and Chapek can't make Iger take a pay cut. Iger needs to offer to take a compensation cut for Disney to effectively reduce senior executive compensation in any meaningful way. And while I think most CEO's are way overpaid, you can argue Chapek agreed to a reduced salary when he took the job. His first year compensation will be at least 50% below anyone serving in a similar role to him at a comparable media company. Most of the other executives outside the most senior ranks in Burbank at Disney are already making less than they would in a similar position at a competing media company. They stay at Disney because they love the idea of Disney, but Disney runs a real risk of losing those people if they force them to take a pay cut. Disney has already been bleeding talent to other media companies.

I guess my point is Testa should address his criticism solely to one person, Iger.

I'm not interested in a big debate but almost none of these statements are accurate. It's public information, not sure where this came from, but one podcast, if that was it, is not the end all be all. You could pay Iger nothing (when he was CEO) and every CM would be making $3 more a year or something. I figured it out one day a couple years back when Abigail was on one of her crusades.