ROFR Thread April to June 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[bryaalre]

Wow they made you wait so long before they took it!

Its not a big deal. It would have been nicer to know a week or two earlier but now Ill just put another offer in and wait again.

 

[RamblinWreck]

This makes me think I bid too high on my recent offer for VGF. I put in $180 pp (asking price was $183). ugh...hopefully this means it will pass.

It will almost assuredly pass!

You probably did bid too high to start if it was listed at $183. But if it was the right contract for you, then you still did fine. VGF contracts on the resale market are not very plentiful, and the difference you paid up front won't matter much in the long run.

 

[prncssjas]

It will almost assuredly pass!

You probably did bid too high to start if it was listed at $183. But if it was the right contract for you, then you still did fine. VGF contracts on the resale market are not very plentiful, and the difference you paid up front won't matter much in the long run.

Ah thank you! I was in such a hurry to offer on another contract since the prior one was taken through ROFR. Agreed that VGF contracts in the DEC use year are sparse and it was a 154 point contract with full points for 2022 and 2023 so I jumped on it. As much as I wanted a "deal," I wanted to have a VGF contract done.

 

[kboo]

Prices have really come down since I made my offer in March but that 1000 point VGF contract is still hanging around! lol

It's listed for $180k. With the current direct incentives, one can buy it direct for $187k for that many points. I would say, the seller can maybe get someone to bite at $150-160pp?

Back when I was buying in 2018-2019, there was a 1000+pt VGF contract that was asking $125k. I never found out who bought it, but it apparently was not ROFR'd.

 

[Bea]

$145-$7829-50-SSR-Sep-0/20, 50/21, 23/22, 50/23-seller pay '22 MF- sent 4/18, passed 5/18

so freakin excited! super small as we only go 2-3 nights a year but figured if i had the cash on hand now might as well take a chance. it worked!

This is encouraging. We are waiting for on a 50 point SSR @144/point, Dec UY. I don’t enjoy the waiting game so wanted something I knew would have a good chance of passing.

 

[wdw4rfam]

This is encouraging. We are waiting for on a 50 point SSR @144/point, Dec UY. I don’t enjoy the waiting game so wanted something I knew would have a good chance of passing.

We are waiting on 100@ $138 at SSR with only 50 pts this year and I thought I had a decent shot but am getting nervous now.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This is why there are so many resale listings not being bought. Everyone is buying direct! Disney sold 310,866 points in April, the most since 2013. Yes, it's mostly from VGF2 sales but Riviera also had a strong month, selling 93k+ points, the strongest since before the pandemic. Disney strategically exercising ROFR and giving massive incentives on active resorts is squeezing the resale market.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...-help-drive-strong-direct-sales-in-april-2022

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This is why there are so many resale listings not being bought. Everyone is buying direct! Disney sold 310,866 points in April, the most since 2013. Yes, it's mostly from VGF2 sales but Riviera also had a strong month, selling 93k+ points, the strongest since before the pandemic. Disney strategically exercising ROFR and giving massive incentives on active resorts is squeezing the resale market.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...-help-drive-strong-direct-sales-in-april-2022

I don't know about "massive" incentives. They're decent. They've been way better.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Lol VGF outselling RIV 2-to-1.

Bye, bye resale restrictions (and hello Poly 2 being an expansion of PVB rather than its own association).

And it warms my heart that they only sold 3 BCV contracts.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I don't know about "massive" incentives. They're decent. They've been way better.

I knew you were going to key in on that! OK, it was an exaggeration. But the numbers don't lie. The average contract size bought for VGF2 direct was 160 points. At that range, you're only getting $6 off the regular price of $207pp. Even with that, people are choosing to buy direct over resale, even though VFG2 fell under the old condo association. I think Disney maybe winning the battle in creating FOMO within potential resale buyers.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

...people are choosing to buy direct over resale, even though VFG2 fell under the old condo association.

People are choosing to buy VGF2 direct BECAUSE VGF2 falls under the old condo association.

People hate the resale restrictions. Disney introduced them to crack down on resale but they stepped on their own toes and made RIV direct unappealing instead. Now that people have a non-RIV option that isn't Aulani, they're flocking to it.

 

[hglenn]

I knew you were going to key in on that! OK, it was an exaggeration. But the numbers don't lie. The average contract size bought for VGF2 direct was 160 points. At that range, you're only getting $6 off the regular price of $207pp. Even with that, people are choosing to buy direct over resale, even though VFG2 fell under the old condo association. I think Disney maybe winning the battle in creating FOMO within potential resale buyers.

There were no discounts for new members for VGF until 175 pts - so were new members more willing to buy into VGF without incentives than RIV with? As a matter of fact, for new members you have to buy 300 VGF points to exceed the PPP discount at RIV for just 150 pts.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

People are choosing to buy VGF2 direct BECAUSE VGF2 falls under the old condo association.

People hate the resale restrictions. Disney introduced them to crack down on resale but they stepped on their own toes and made RIV direct unappealing instead. Now that people have a non-RIV option that isn't Aulani, they're flocking to it.

Agree. Still doesn't explain why people would choose to buy VGF DIRECT at $201pp, when they can probably get it for $160pp on the current resale market. I'm with you that I wish the restrictions go away, but I don't think VGF outselling RIV 2-1 is a good indication that they will. I think Disney is ok selling Riviera at the current pace, while still making strong sales with cheap additions like VGF2 and Poly2.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There were no discounts for new members for VGF until 175 pts - so were new members more willing to buy into VGF without incentives than RIV with? As a matter of fact, for new members you have to buy 300 VGF points to exceed the PPP discount at RIV for just 150 pts.

This adds to my point. People are willing to buy VFG direct at much higher prices than whatever is available on the resale market. I think this trend might encourage Disney to keep the resale restrictions going because it might be boosting their direct sales.

 

[The_MT]

This adds to my point. People are willing to buy VFG direct at much higher prices than whatever is available on the resale market. I think this trend might encourage Disney to keep the resale restrictions going because it might be boosting their direct sales.

I think the average DVC buyer knows nothing about resale and would be too intimidated by the process.

 

[hglenn]

This adds to my point. People are willing to buy VFG direct at much higher prices than whatever is available on the resale market. I think this trend might encourage Disney to keep the resale restrictions going because it might be boosting their direct sales.

I don't know about "much higher than resale market"... for VGF - the resale market was around $180+ when VGF2 became available. Posted prices are still fairly high even if they could be (should be) negotiated down.... Even now, the lowest price I'm seeing on the board sponsor site is $165 per point and highest at $195. I've also see where a number of VGF owners have pulled their contracts and are going to wait out the VGF2 sales when resale prices will go back up... I don't think that going direct on VGF is that much of a stretch over resale as most of the other resorts.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Agree. Still doesn't explain why people would choose to buy VGF DIRECT at $201pp, when they can probably get it for $160pp on the current resale market. I'm with you that I wish the restrictions go away, but I don't think VGF outselling RIV 2-1 is a good indication that they will. I think Disney is ok selling Riviera at the current pace, while still making strong sales with cheap additions like VGF2 and Poly2.

Disney is probably okay selling RIV at the current pace because VGF2 and Poly2 will sell out quickly. They wouldn't be okay, for example, selling Poly2 at a RIV pace.

I also think people have gotten way carried away with the "cheap additions" narrative. I think a lot of y'all either overestimate how much it costs to build something from scratch or underestimate how much it costs to gut and flip existing buildings.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I don't know about "much higher than resale market"... for VGF - the resale market was around $180+ when VGF2 became available. Posted prices are still fairly high even if they could be (should be) negotiated down.... Even now, the lowest price I'm seeing on the board sponsor site is $165 per point and highest at $195. I've also see where a number of VGF owners have pulled their contracts and are going to wait out the VGF2 sales when resale prices will go back up... I don't think that going direct on VGF is that much of a stretch over resale as most of the other resorts.

I agree. Choosing to buy direct largely depends on which resort we're talking about. In the case of VGF, it totally makes sense to go direct right now. Not so much for BCV and BWV. If I was a VGF owner looking to sell, I would definitely wait it out until VGF direct sells out. But I feel bad for those that might need to sell right now.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Disney is probably okay selling RIV at the current pace because VGF2 and Poly2 will sell out quickly. They wouldn't be okay, for example, selling Poly2 at a RIV pace.

I also think people have gotten way carried away with the "cheap additions" narrative. I think a lot of y'all either overestimate how much it costs to build something from scratch or underestimate how much it costs to gut and flip existing buildings.

I think you and I are saying the same thing. Except, I DO believe refurbishing an existing building (VGF2) is much cheaper than building from scratch (Riviera). Though, Poly2 might fall somewhere in the middle.

 

[mejones1115]

Bryaalre---$138-$17462-120-AKV-Feb-0/21, 21/22, 120/23- sent 4/5, taken 5/18 Was hoping this would pass but I guess not.

It's something with AKV...we waited the same for ours back in March/April at $141 a point at 160 and they took ours. It was awful...but funny enough we had submitted a 50 Pointer 2 weeks after that one was submitted and heard that it had passed before we found out that they took that one. We are now onto our second try (2 and a half weeks in) this time we went for an international seller. Hoping it doesn't take quite so long so we can get our hands on our 21 points and use them up.