Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[skier_pete]

So there's a lot of anecdotal talk that Riviera isn't selling well, but what do the numbers say? I got these numbers from DVC News - for CCV and Riviera for each month this year. Note the JUNE data represents the point at which they supposedly stopped marketing CCV direct, so there's still probably not enough data to make a full conclusion - the registered data DVC News uses is from the county and is reported about 4-6 weeks after the sales happen - so August numbers really sort of represent July sales. (Note I rounded to the nearest thousand) Note I am also ignoring all the other resorts just so simpify - the assumption is Disney is marketing the "new" resorts. )

January - CCV: 219,000
February - CCV 148,000
March - CCV 135,000
April - CCV 168,000 RIV 59,000
May - CCV 75,000 RIV 97,000
June - CCV 83,000 RIV 114,000
July - CCV 53,000 RIV 109,000
August - CCV 28,000 RIV 105,000
September - CCV 17,000 RIV 93,000 (added 10/10)
October - CCV 13,700 RIV 97,100 (added 11/13)
November CCV 7,800 RIV 102,764 (added 12/18)
December CCV 7,066 RIV 121,869 (added 1/16)
January 2020 - RIV 181,289 (added 2/28) - down 17% Year over year
February 2020 - RIV 139,320 (added 3/19) - down 7 % year over year
What can we conclude by these numbers?
1) Copper Creek sales the first four months of the year averaged 167,500 points
2) Copper Creek sales did start dropping when Riviera came on line.
3) Total "New" points remained high April - June with 250,000 points sold.
4) However, Riviera's highest month was 114,000 points, and month where there were still 83,000 points sold at CCV.
5) July and August saw a strong drop in CCV points sold - almost 30,000 per months, but ALSO saw a drop in Riviera sales!
6) July and August saw only about 147,000 points total combined, significantly lower than any other month.
New added 12/18:
7) RIV sales continue to be soft, even as they slowly rise Sept-Nov, they are much lower than CCV.

Overall - I would say it is too soon to tell, but the overall data says that Riviera is seeing softer sales in 2019 than Copper Creek was seeing, and recent sales are the softest so far. So I think there is definitely reason to believe that the resort isn't selling as well as they would like. I wouldn't say any of the numbers indicate disaster - but the current trend is definitely to the negative.

What does this mean? It could mean a few things:
- Economic Slowdown.
- Softer sales in summer are normal (I don't know this.)
- Riviera sales are hurting because the resort isn't open.
- Rivera sales are hurting because of the resale restrictions.
- Something else.

I would say it is likely we need to see 3-6 more months of data to be sure. As I've said elsewhere, I doubt Disney would change the resale restrictions without opening the resort first, but let's see what the next 6 months bring.

 

[mousemagic00]

Musing type thought.....When did they start hiking the AP prices to the point that you don't break even after 10 days of use? I often wonder if things like the ability to travel more often at a reasonable cost ends up driving down the lower end middle class buyer. Those are the ones that might try to buy DVC as a cost control measure so they can go multiple times a year vs. yearly. If the increase in points/cost per points, plus the ability to use the parks due to ticket costs gets out of hand, I think people start thinking every few years vs every year, and then DVC could take a hit as it doesn't make sense. It starts to become liking owning a boat but you only go boating every few years.... then what is the point to owning the boat?

It might also mean someone that might want to add-on, even with restrictions, but now won't because they'll already be banking points etc, because they already are priced out from going annually.

This would be in addition to the restrictions etc, that I think hit the DVC loyalists who have no interest in the model change.

 

[striker1064]

I'm curious how RIV sales stack up against other resorts in active sales prior to opening. Anecdotally, ~9 months seems like a long time, but I don't know the data for other resorts for that kind of lag time. I know we were very close to buying RIV, but ultimately couldn't pull the trigger without staying there first.

 

[skier_pete]

I'm curious how RIV sales stack up against other resorts in active sales prior to opening. Anecdotally, ~9 months seems like a long time, but I don't know the data for other resorts for that kind of lag time. I know we were very close to buying RIV, but ultimately couldn't pull the trigger without staying there first.

The issue here - and your point is a good one - that it's been a long time since that's really been a question - which is why I posted it as one of the possible reasons for soft sales. Think about it:
CCV - existing resort
Poly - existing resort
VGF - existing resort
Aulani - NEW resort - not at WDW
BLT - new building at existing resort
VGC - existing resort
AKV - existing resort & new building at existing resort
SSR - NEW resort

So really SSR is the last NEW resort at WDW to open in 2004, and even there it was buildings from the Disney institute. And at that time when SSR went up for sale it was $79 a point! So it's hard to even compare. Which is to my point of that is a possible cause for soft sales, and undoubtably why I don't think Disney will jump to the conclusion that resale restrictions are hindering sales. If sales continue to soften after opening? That's another story.

 

[sndral]

So there's a lot of anecdotal talk that Riviera isn't selling well, but what do the numbers say? I got these numbers from DVC News - for CCV and Riviera for each month this year. Note the JUNE data represents the point at which they supposedly stopped marketing CCV direct, so there's still probably not enough data to make a full conclusion - the registered data DVC News uses is from the county and is reported about 4-6 weeks after the sales happen - so August numbers really sort of represent July sales. (Note I rounded to the nearest thousand) Note I am also ignoring all the other resorts just so simpify - the assumption is Disney is marketing the "new" resorts. )

January - CCV: 219,00
February - CCV 148,000
March - CCV 135,000
April - CCV 168,000 RIV 59,000
May - CCV 75,000 RIV 97,000
June - CCV 83,000 RIV 114,000
July - CCV 53,000 RIV 109,000
August - CCV 28,000 RIV 105,000

What can we conclude by these numbers?
1) Copper Creek sales the first four months of the year averaged 167,500 points
2) Copper Creek sales did start dropping when Riviera came on line.
3) Total "New" points remained high April - June with 250,000 points sold.
4) However, Riviera's highest month was 114,000 points, and month where there were still 83,000 points sold.
5) July and August saw a strong drop in CCV points sold - almost 30,000 per months, but ALSO saw a drop in Riviera sales!
6) July and August saw only about 147,000 points total combined, significantly lower than any other month.

Overall - I would say it is too soon to tell, but the overall data says that Riviera is seeing softer sales in 2019 than Copper Creek was seeing, and recent sales are the softest so far. So I think there is definitely reason to believe that the resort isn't selling as well as they would like. I wouldn't say any of the numbers indicate disaster - but the current trend is definitely to the negative.

What does this mean? It could mean a few things:
- Economic Slowdown.
- Softer sales in summer are normal (I don't know this.)
- Riviera sales are hurting because the resort isn't open.
- Rivera sales are hurting because of the resale restrictions.
- Something else.

I would say it is likely we need to see 3-6 more months of data to be sure. As I've said elsewhere, I doubt Disney would change the resale restrictions without opening the resort first, but let's see what the next 6 months bring.

Interesting. My impression from reading posts about people’s chats w/ guide’s was that DVC is marketing Riviera as a luxury product, a VGF2, but IMO simply calling it a luxury product does not make it so. I’ve wondered from the start how they would distinguish it from the moderate CBR next door, and w/ the Skyliner connection, from budget resorts AOA & POP. Would the half hearted styling of a multistory tower with an upscale eating venue or two be enough? So to your “something else” I would add:
- location
- point creep
The point cost to stay at CCV was pretty reasonable, the point cost to stay at Riviera seems pretty high in comparison.
I get my best clues about what’s happening with the bottom line by watching DVC’s reactions, so when they upped the minimum direct point for membership to 100 points that suggests to me that sales are not reaching DVC’s target.

 

[Brianstl]

Interesting. My impression from reading posts about people’s chats w/ guide’s was that DVC is marketing Riviera as a luxury product, a VGF2, but IMO simply calling it a luxury product does not make it so. I’ve wondered from the start how they would distinguish it from the moderate CBR next door, and w/ the Skyliner connection, from budget resorts AOA & POP. Would the half hearted styling of a multistory tower with an upscale eating venue or two be enough? So to your “something else” I would add:
- location
- point creep
The point cost to stay at CCV was pretty reasonable, the point cost to stay at Riviera seems pretty high in comparison.
I get my best clues about what’s happpning with the bottom line by watching DVC’s reactions, so when they upped the minimum direct point for membership to 100 points that suggests to me that sales are not reaching DVC’s target.

Location is the biggest reason you can't sell RIV like VGF. VGF is right by the Magic Kingdom on the monorail. VGF is going to be in even higher demand when the bridge is finished. Being able to walk to MK is going to be huge. Being able to walk to Epcot (to a lesser extent DHS) are the reason BCV and BWV trade at an inflated price.

 

[ELMC]

Interesting. My impression from reading posts about people’s chats w/ guide’s was that DVC is marketing Riviera as a luxury product, a VGF2, but IMO simply calling it a luxury product does not make it so. I’ve wondered from the start how they would distinguish it from the moderate CBR next door, and w/ the Skyliner connection, from budget resorts AOA & POP. Would the half hearted styling of a multistory tower with an upscale eating venue or two be enough? So to your “something else” I would add:
- location
- point creep
The point cost to stay at CCV was pretty reasonable, the point cost to stay at Riviera seems pretty high in comparison.
I get my best clues about what’s happening with the bottom line by watching DVC’s reactions, so when they upped the minimum direct point for membership to 100 points that suggests to me that sales are not reaching DVC’s target.

This is a great post and there are so many individual points that could be unpacked and explored.

Remember when everyone thought that the DVC built on the location of the RIV would be a "moderate DVC" because of the location? Well, the location may be moderate but the appointments certainly aren't. But like you said, that might not be enough to overcome the optics and preconceptions. For what it's worth, CCV opened at a price $12 lower with dues $1 lower than RIV. And that is a resort with a proven location and connection to a park (boat to MK). Add that to the increased point requirements and it's two steps up for a resort that might be a step down.

As to the minimums, that is very interesting. I can see the conversation taking place now. There's a chance they don't think that the increase from 75 to 100 points will deter anyone - in which case they can instantly increase their sales numbers by 33% on all the people buying the minimum number of points. It's an easy win.

 

[skier_pete]

I guess what I look at though is if the reason is "bad location" or "dues too high" or "point creep", there's nothing at all Disney can do about that. Things they can change to boost sales:

- Lower price / increase incentives.
- Rescind the resale restriction on "can't stay anywhere else".

I absolutely cannot tell me that the resale restrictions haven't hurt sales at all. There are many people I've talked to (including Pete Werner) that say they will not buy there because of the resale restrictions. I will admit that the only way they do that is if their backs are up against the wall. But if sales continue to soften...do they do it?

 

[Sandisw]

Location is the biggest reason you can't sell RIV like VGF. VGF is right by the Magic Kingdom on the monorail. VGF is going to be in even higher demand when the bridge is finished. Being able to walk to MK is going to be huge. Being able to walk to Epcot (to a lesser extent DHS) are the reason BCV and BWV trade at an inflated price.

I have noticed an uptick in the resale Price for VGF since they announced the walkway..I think you are right. I definitely would love to add on there as it’s my favorite, but looking more at BLT simply because of the $30 a point difference.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Location is the biggest reason you can't sell RIV like VGF.

I'd argue it to be more than this.

VGF was stapled on to a known quantity. Grand Floridian is Disney's flagship resort, their top of the heap deluxe. People know the dining, the monorail, what the lobby smells like.

Riviera is cut from whole cloth. Maybe it'll be good. But people don't know (or understand) the Skyliner. The resort is new.

I think, economy permitting, Riviera sales will pick up when it opens. But I think selling a from-scratch resort is harder than any of the last several (CCV, Poly, VGF) where they are add-ons to known, iconic Disney destinations.

 

[cvjw]

It could also be that people have no interest in owning Rivera. I know we sure don’t. I only want points at resorts where we can walk to a theme park.

Add to that the number of points required for stays. No thanks. I will stay at BCV or BWV.

 

[Sanwich]

Aside from the blocky outer appearance of the building itself, I’m really interested in Riviera as a resort, and it keeps sounding better the more info that’s released (honestly I couldn’t have cared less when the initial concept picture was shown, but then we got the model room photos, video mockup “tour,” examples of the artwork, descriptions of the food, promises of live music, excitement about the gondolas, etc). It really does seem close to the “luxury” style they were aiming for.

That said, I’m still wary because at least a few of these “luxury” features could very easily be removed if Disney wishes... things like the live entertainment, fancy menu items at even the quick service location, and such. How soon before they cut the menu back to hamburgers and chicken nuggets and decide the cafe will only operate “seasonally” or something? I’m mostly joking, but it is a concern. It would stink to be promised (and pay for) one level of product and receive something less.

This, plus the resale restrictions, is what makes me hesitant to consider buying. It’s especially hard to tell what the resort will look like in a few years because it’s a totally new one... things like CCV and Poly were somewhat known quantities because the main hotel had been around long before.

ETA: Looks like some other folks already made my last point as well, whoops. Great minds.

 

[ELMC]

I guess what I look at though is if the reason is "bad location" or "dues too high" or "point creep", there's nothing at all Disney can do about that. Things they can change to boost sales:

- Lower price / increase incentives.
- Rescind the resale restriction on "can't stay anywhere else".

I absolutely cannot tell me that the resale restrictions haven't hurt sales at all. There are many people I've talked to (including Pete Werner) that say they will not buy there because of the resale restrictions. I will admit that the only way they do that is if their backs are up against the wall. But if sales continue to soften...do they do it?

I don't think so. History has shown that DVC applies the carrot and stick approach. But they don't use fewer sticks, they simply add in more carrots. If anything, I expect them to double down in both directions.

 

[Brianstl]

Aside from the blocky outer appearance of the building itself, I’m really interested in Riviera as a resort, and it keeps sounding better the more info that’s released (honestly I couldn’t have cared less when the initial concept picture was shown, but then we got the model room photos, video mockup “tour,” examples of the artwork, descriptions of the food, promises of live music, excitement about the gondolas, etc). It really does seem close to the “luxury” style they were aiming for.

That said, I’m still wary because at least a few of these “luxury” features could very easily be removed if Disney wishes... things like the live entertainment, fancy menu items at even the quick service location, and such. How soon before they cut the menu back to hamburgers and chicken nuggets and decide the cafe will only operate “seasonally” or something? I’m mostly joking, but it is a concern. It would stink to be promised (and pay for) one level of product and receive something less.

This, plus the resale restrictions, is what makes me hesitant to consider buying. It’s especially hard to tell what the resort will look like in a few years because it’s a totally new one... things like CCV and Poly were somewhat known quantities because the main hotel had been around long before.

ETA: Looks like some other folks already made my last point as well, whoops. Great minds.

The fact they have shown they are willing to cut back on entertainment and other amenities to cut cost, really makes the dining options and music not a selling point to me. The resale restrictions, less bang per point and fear of how high already high MFs could get are for me the biggest drawbacks for RIV. The rooms look outstanding. I think Skyliner is going to be great (it might, also, cause even higher MFs).

 

[WIll C]

A lot depends on your motivations and desires. We bought Riviera because of the Skyliner to Epcot. I have to cut down the walking for my wife (the parks are enough) so other than BLT, all the other resorts are a wash (and we'd probably still take the Monorail into MK). We took the boat from BWV into Epcot, the Skyliner will be the same for us. We wanted new and liked the styling. Resale, while a concern, wasn't a deal breaker. Could they change things, sure but they can do that anywhere. There were enough incentives for us to buy now versus next spring that we took it.

 

[evr25160]

It could also be that people have no interest in owning Rivera. I know we sure don’t. I only want points at resorts where we can walk to a theme park.

Add to that the number of points required for stays. No thanks. I will stay at BCV or BWV.

This is it for us we genuinely have no interest in RIV and we are truly looking into buying new doesn’t always mean better when you can get more bang for your buck at some of the older properties.

 

[sethschroeder]

luxury

Skyliner connection, from budget resorts AOA & POP.

I have to laungh that these both describe RIV. Sorry but a direct connection to the value resorts is not a selling point of that.

It's like opening a new luxury resort and then letting the Ramada Inn use it for their guests.

100% nothing against anyone staying in those locations (we would have stayed at AOA but got a cheaper rate via renting points this last time).

 

[sethschroeder]

A lot depends on your motivations and desires. We bought Riviera because of the Skyliner to Epcot. I have to cut down the walking for my wife (the parks are enough) so other than BLT, all the other resorts are a wash (and we'd probably still take the Monorail into MK). We took the boat from BWV into Epcot, the Skyliner will be the same for us. We wanted new and liked the styling. Resale, while a concern, wasn't a deal breaker. Could they change things, sure but they can do that anywhere. There were enough incentives for us to buy now versus next spring that we took it.

I see a bunch of reasons to buy I don't think anyone is wrong to purchase there. My biggest thing really is the points chart not being as friendly as BW or AK along with resale available for those two resorts.

 

[TexasChick123]

I have a few thoughts on how sales are going. I think it is pretty tough to look at the sales and compare them to other properties simply because Riviera is completely different than any other property previously built. It is not connected to an already existing hotel but has a new and unique transportation option. We're all trying to predict the future, myself included, as to how well this resort will do, and I think there are just too many variables. I hope we made the right decision purchasing when the best incentives were offered initially, but maybe we didn't. A few concerns from a new owner:
1) better incentives offered in the future, and we should've waited
2) we don't like the resort and want to sell when the economy is fine but can't for what we consider a reasonable price
3) the economy tanks, and we are really screwed because of the restrictions

OTOH, maybe the resort will be amazing, and people will be lining up to purchase once they stay there. I definitely feel like we took a gamble on this resort buying brand new before it was opened. I have heard some people say they have never regretted doing the very same thing with other resorts in the past. Others say they sold shortly after staying for the first time because it wasn't for them. I hope Riviera is a slam dunk as I purchased there, but we fully appreciate that it may not work out how we hoped which is always the concern when buying before a resort opens and even more so when they introduce new restrictions. Sadly, even if sales are not moving along as well as DVD wants, I highly doubt they'll remove the restrictions. They have already decided this is their path to more revenue, and they will stay the course, hell or high water. I truly hope that I am wrong about this, and we all get a shock with these idiotic restrictions being removed, but I am not holding my breath.

 

[ELMC]

I have a few thoughts on how sales are going. I think it is pretty tough to look at the sales and compare them to other properties simply because Riviera is completely different than any other property previously built. It is not connected to an already existing hotel but has a new and unique transportation option. We're all trying to predict the future, myself included, as to how well this resort will do, and I think there are just too many variables. I hope we made the right decision purchasing when the best incentives were offered initially, but maybe we didn't. A few concerns from a new owner:
1) better incentives offered in the future, and we should've waited
2) we don't like the resort and want to sell when the economy is fine but can't for what we consider a reasonable price
3) the economy tanks, and we are really screwed because of the restrictions

OTOH, maybe the resort will be amazing, and people will be lining up to purchase once they stay there. I definitely feel like we took a gamble on this resort buying brand new before it was opened. I have heard some people say they have never regretted doing the very same thing with other resorts in the past. Others say they sold shortly after staying for the first time because it wasn't for them. I hope Riviera is a slam dunk as I purchased there, but we fully appreciate that it may not work out how we hoped which is always the concern when buying before a resort opens and even more so when they introduce new restrictions. Sadly, even if sales are not moving along as well as DVD wants, I highly doubt they'll remove the restrictions. They have already decided this is their path to more revenue, and they will stay the course, hell or high water. I truly hope that I am wrong about this, and we all get a shock with these idiotic restrictions being removed, but I am not holding my breath.

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Here's the thing, though, if you look at it from a long term perspective, you will be ok regardless. Here's why:

Let's say you stay there and you can't stand it to the point where you will never stay there again and want to sell. Unfortunately, the resale restrictions make it so that you can't sell for a reasonable amount. At that point in time, the money you spent on RIV becomes dead money. It's gone. We've all done it before - bought something that we shouldn't have and just written it off as a bad purchase. But that's where this is different. From that point on you can start renting out your points and recapturing some of that money - eventually all of that money. Sure, it will take about 10-12 years to become whole again (assuming double MF in rental income plus 50% return upon sale) but you will become whole again. And in 2031 the huge mistake that you made is essentially erased. And here's the best part. All of the arguments we throw out there about cost of use of money and next-best alternative don't apply here...because it's a bad purchase not an investment. You don't go out to a steak dinner and calculate the delta between the steak and a burger and figure out how much that decision will end up costing you 10, 20, 30 years from now. You're not going to do that here either because this isn't an investment, it's not even a timeshare, it's a bad purchase - like that home gym that now serves as a glorifies clothes hanger or anything As Seen on TV.

I want to be clear, I'm not suggesting that this is a sound strategy, far from it. The thought of spending a chunk of money now in the hopes that you can simply recover it ten years from now with no benefit of use is absurd. But it is a perspective and a change in thinking. Once you have written off the purchase price, every penny you get is money that you weren't expecting. That's the failsafe of DVC and that is why we can have these conversations so brazenly...because we all have this giant life preserver around our waists as we do so. We can knock DVC all we want, but it's still one of the strongest, safest timeshare systems out there.