Based on comments by a few who bought Riviera Resale, their intentions were to only use the points at Riviera. It seems that may be keeping the resale price up and not the sub $100 region where many were predicting prior to it opening. Also, if sales don’t meet expectations over time, DVD did retain the right to revise restrictions. Not saying they will do so.
Restrictions are here to stay at Riv and future resorts. The only thing that hurt sales was the timing of the Covid closure -- just a few months after the Grand opening, at what should have been a strong time for tours and sales.
Anyone thinking re-sale will fall under $100 per point is crazy.
Compare it to a 2042 original resort: Pay...
A. $130-$150 for those resorts, for 21 years worth of stays, but only in the original 14 resorts (with availability very often tightly limited), not Riviera and not future resorts.
B. Or... pay for 49 more years, but only in the one newest resort.
Is "B" worth less than "A"? Debatable. I'd say many people would pick "B", taking the extra 28 years as worth more than the flexibility to occasionally stay at other resorts. But I'm sure there are some people who would argue "A" is more valuable.
And even if the majority of people thought "A" was more valuable... at what price difference?
If it's $30,000 (200 points) for re-sale at a 2042 resort where you might occasionally trade points to stay at another resort, knowing you can't stay at Riviera with those points...
Even if you found that more valuable than resale at Riviera lasting through 2070, how much more valuable? For $27,000, saving $3,000 + getting an extra 28 years, would you live with the resale restrictions? That's still $135 per point. Or for $25,000 instead of $30,000 -- save $5,000 + get an extra 28 years, surely lots of people would take that compromise to live with the restrictions -- That's still $125 per point.
How about saving $7000 + an extra 28 years -- That's still $115 per point!
Everything has a price. Lots of people would be happy to make Riviera their exclusive Disney home, for the right price. Yes, the restrictions might make Riviera less attractive to a re-sale buyer, but how much less attractive.
The only DVC expirations within 5 years or Riviera are the Poly -- where re-sale is about $175 per point, and Copper Creek where re-sale is about $170.
So even applying a 25% discount for re-sale restrictions, that would still leave Riviera will a healthy re-sale price of $130.
(The prices I'm currently seeing for Riviera are in the 160's)