The Dining Plan will certainly be back in 2023 barring food supply chain issues and uncontrolled inflation. Labour issues are now easing thanks to the return of the cultural reps international program and the college program. But good 'Disney standard' food and maintaining affordable wholesale contracts in an inflation are the real short-term issues.
Menus were cut back when the parks re-opened and most big ticket foodie offerings like crab legs, shrimp and 'better quality' strip steak were either ditched completely or replaced with a cheaper substitute. While this may not be as obvious at signature restaurants, it is very obvious at one credit restaurants like Cape May. A large and lucrative customer like WDW should be at the top of the food chain with national wholesalers. Should WDW not launch the dining plan by January 2023, this signals an even deeper food security issue in the US and North America and will be concerning for us all as consumers and not just as WDW guests.
Don't confuse the
free dining promotion with the dining plan. They are completely different beasts. The free dining promotion may not be back in 2023 or 2024. Not only is the return of the dining plan required for this promotion, free dining is a discretionary targeted measure to fill resort rooms at what were once historically low occupancy seasons. But low occupancy seasons aren't really that low anymore. Witness the huge popularity of Halloween and the Epcot F&W festival season in the once dead back to school hurricane season of September and October. WDW resorts also learned from covid and the housekeeping squeeze that they can shutter rooms, entire buildings and entire resorts and survive quite well thank you very much when they no longer have to pay staff to run empty resorts. It may take opening day of Universal's new park and the rush to Universal to experience that next new thing before we see a targeted drop of free dining again.
The dining plan itself is profitable for WDW. They weren't messing around last summer when they announced it would be back. Some time. In the future. No commitment. Most families can't eat the true price of the plan and leave credits on the table. Hot sticky Orlando weather and 10 mile daily park touring makes it hard to eat steak, steak and more steak every day so guests default to the cheaper chicken and salad. Bags of branded sugar candy on the flight home is money in Disney's pocket when snack credits aren't used. The dining plan also denies guests those tempting day trips to Universal or even special ticket events like Horror Nights. You won't leave the parks if you can't use your dining credits. Keeping guests a captive of the mouse and spending daily in the parks remains a priority. It will be the priority once Universal opens the new park.
Free Dining and the Dining Plan need to be teased apart. They are not the same thing. The Dining Plan will be back as long as WDW can continue to offer some acceptable protein on the menu at a wholesale price that yields profit. It's lucrative. It aggressively smacks back at rival parks and denies competing parks Disney's own guests. It's all about the food.