Return of Crowds

[Disneyfan754321]

Since TP crowd levels are based on ride wait times, that might happen. BUT, they don’t account for crowds waiting for cavalcades, food, Photopass or shopping. I was at MK this morning & afternoon. It was hard to make it up & down Main Street. The hub was wall to wall people for cavalcades. People waited hours for food. It wasn’t empty by any means.

And as a PP said, rides were operating at full capacity. There were so many CMs around it wasn’t funny. I haven’t seen that many CM in years.

I'm sure everyone was told Nobody takes off .... no doctors appointments lol.

 

[focusondisney]

Live feeds can be deceptive, but I suspect today, like every other day for the past 45 days, will end up being not crowded per touringplans data. So far out of the last 45 days, 43 have been crowd level 1, and the other 2 were crowd level 2. Touringplans predicted a crowd level 8 today, I am really curious where they end up. I’m guessing 2.

You we’re close! ! Just checked. TP listed today as a 1, lol! Can‘t imagine anyone who was there would agree.

 

[StarrySkye21]

You we’re close! ! Just checked. TP listed today as a 1, lol! Can‘t imagine anyone who was there would agree.

that’s because TP uses ride line data to determine crowds. Rides were a wait of level 1 today because (seemingly) most were trying to get merch. I bet if all those people were in ride lines, the wait time would be closer to level 8 or 9. Maybe even 10.

Im just feeling a little more reassured that crowds will be decent during my visit in the middle of November.

 

[Jrb1979]

that’s because TP uses ride line data to determine crowds. Rides were a wait of level 1 today because (seemingly) most were trying to get merch. I bet if all those people were in ride lines, the wait time would be closer to level 8 or 9. Maybe even 10.

Im just feeling a little more reassured that crowds will be decent during my visit in the middle of November.

Decent. I personally think it's going to be quiet for awhile. Outside of today due to it being the 50th, availability is low everywhere.

 

[Tonyz]

You we’re close! ! Just checked. TP listed today as a 1, lol! Can‘t imagine anyone who was there would agree.

For rides? It’s true. Everything was 15 minutes or less.

 

[CanucksRock]

And by 15 minutes, they meant walk on. It was a great day for rides! (We waited in zero lines for merch, popcorn, or food - they were not a priority)

 

[OhBother1984]

Decent. I personally think it's going to be quiet for awhile. Outside of today due to it being the 50th, availability is low everywhere.

I agree, I honestly won't be shocked if it stays low for a good year or more, maybe not as low as end of august/sept got but nowhere near to 2019 crowds which were getting out of control.

 

[Jrb1979]

I agree, I honestly won't be shocked if it stays low for a good year or more, maybe not as low as end of august/sept got but nowhere near to 2019 crowds which were getting out of control.

I think the travel industry is in for a downturn for the next year or so.

 

[OhBother1984]

I think the travel industry is in for a downturn for the next year or so.

I fully agree. Locally I know know like no one planning trips for all various reasons and many of them are ones that do travel every year. Plus those that are going places are going less days and planning more last minute.

 

[focusondisney]

that’s because TP uses ride line data to determine crowds. Rides were a wait of level 1 today because (seemingly) most were trying to get merch. I bet if all those people were in ride lines, the wait time would be closer to level 8 or 9. Maybe even 10.

Im just feeling a little more reassured that crowds will be decent during my visit in the middle of November.

I know, I said that up thread. Which is deceiving to some people using it to plan who think they’re gonna walk into an empty park.

 

[focusondisney]

For rides? It’s true. Everything was 15 minutes or less.

Except it’s not called a “ride calendar “. It’s called a crowd calendar. So people think they’re walking into an empty park. It’s semantics sure, but many people don’t understand the difference. So they think they’ll only be that many people in the parks. I was also here 2 weeks ago. And even then, there were lots of people around, more than what the TP crowd calendar would lead you to believe.
I’m not bashing TP, I’ve been a paying subscriber for as long as I can remember. Just an observation.

 

[_19disnA]

I fully agree. Locally I know know like no one planning trips for all various reasons and many of them are ones that do travel every year. Plus those that are going places are going less days and planning more last minute.

See it the same way here. People who lost their job/business due to covid aren't going to be rushing out on vacation anytime soon. Others want to keep their families safe and are doing less travel even if they can until more of covid is behind us. International travel is also lower and will take some time to recover. The travel industry seems to mostly be the ones pushing the 'book now so you don't lose out' narrative and that just isn't reality.

No 3rd party has any special insight regarding future Disney attendance. Whether they are trying to 'forecast' park or ride wait times is little more then a guess when you are looking at 2-3 months from now. Your chance of being right is about the same as pulling numbers out of a hat.

 

[Jrb1979]

See it the same way here. People who lost their job/business due to covid aren't going to be rushing out on vacation anytime soon. Others want to keep their families safe and are doing less travel even if they can until more of covid is behind us. International travel is also lower and will take some time to recover. The travel industry seems to mostly be the ones pushing the 'book now so you don't lose out' narrative and that just isn't reality.

No 3rd party has any special insight regarding future Disney attendance. Whether they are trying to 'forecast' park or ride wait times is little more then a guess when you are looking at 2-3 months from now. Your chance of being right is about the same as pulling numbers out of a hat.

It's pretty telling when there is a lot of availability for the foreseeable future.

 

[Stephy811]

I hope it stays low…we are going in two weeks and at this point doesn’t seem like genie will be rolled out and I was very worried about standby being the only option. However, I just checked waits and FoP was posted 15 mins and TP said actual 9! That would be amazing! Even with fp our waits were always longer than that! I just don’t want to get my hopes up too high that it stays this way!

 

[bethbuchall]

There still doesn’t seem to be a lot of room availability (a few high priced deluxe rooms) during our ten days, but my fingers are crossed.

 

[StageTek]

I was in The World from Sept. 21 to Sept 30. TP was all 1's and 2's until Sept 26 when MK went to 3 and 4 for the rest of the week.

The parks felt crowded but the lines were short.
My entire trip Mine Train hovered around 40 minutes except early in the day.
FoP was about the same; over 100 min for the first few hours then 40/50 min for most of the day. I went on it three times around 3PM with a 15 min wait. On most days the actual wait time was closer to 10 min towards the end of each day.
Even Rise was a manageable 50 minutes for much of the day - after the 23rd. RnR was usually under 20. Only ToT and Slinky Dog seemed to stay above 40 most of the day.
On the 30th (my last day) the TP crowd levels were 4's and 5's (MK and DHS) but the lines were still on the short side.

Like others posting I wonder if that was because of no Fast Pass and very limited Lightening Lane.

 

[BroadwayHermione5]

So I was discussing this with a few others yesterday, and we figured it was the following three things keeping the crowds relatively lower than we all thought
1)international travel is still non existent for the most part.
2) The pandemic in general is still halting travel for many-from money issues to being cautious-if its pandemic related it falls under this category
3) people were avoiding this first weekend in general. Between knowing its 18 months long to being afraid of crowds.
UOR also had lower wait times then expected yesterday (I recall a few dissers saying they were starting there so they could avoid the 1st and change to wdw on the between today and the 4th, and for fun I checked the wait times-longest when I checked was hagrid at 45. Everything else was 30 or less)
So my guess is number 1 and 2 had a lot more to do with it than we all anticipated.

I do also wonder if certain jobs in the area somehow made sure people were at work yesterday, but then again we would’ve seen an uptick after 6 pm on the wait times

 

[OhBother1984]

So I was discussing this with a few others yesterday, and we figured it was the following three things keeping the crowds relatively lower than we all thought
1)international travel is still non existent for the most part.
2) The pandemic in general is still halting travel for many-from money issues to being cautious-if its pandemic related it falls under this category
3) people were avoiding this first weekend in general. Between knowing its 18 months long to being afraid of crowds.
UOR also had lower wait times then expected yesterday (I recall a few dissers saying they were starting there so they could avoid the 1st and change to wdw on the between today and the 4th, and for fun I checked the wait times-longest when I checked was hagrid at 45. Everything else was 30 or less)
So my guess is number 1 and 2 had a lot more to do with it than we all anticipated.

I do also wonder if certain jobs in the area somehow made sure people were at work yesterday, but then again we would’ve seen an uptick after 6 pm on the wait times

Yeah I agree its a mixture of 1 and 2. I also think its caused a shift in what people do and prioritize. The unknown future is a big one which is part of 2. Its pretty depressing to try and plan a trip that may or may not happen and then to tie up funds in deposits (even if refundable).

 

[Nabas]

You we’re close! ! Just checked. TP listed today as a 1, lol! Can‘t imagine anyone who was there would agree.

We were at the Hard Rock Hotel Sunday to Tuesday, followed by 4 nights at the Boardwalk Villas (BWV). Crowds were impressively light the entire week.

We were at the Magic Kingdom on October 1 but seriously considered not going to avoid what we assumed were going to be the worst crowds we ever experienced. (Touring Plans was projecting a 10 out of 10 for the crowd level.) I suspect others were scared away by expected crowds.

Instead, we experienced crowds that were closer to what we saw in March and May 2021. (Crowds were heavier in July.) Wait times for many attractions were short. (For example, I don't think Seven Dwarfs Mine Train got much above 45 minutes.) By far, the longest lines were for the specialty merchandise being sold that day.



We decided not to stay since there didn't seem to be anything special (other than the merchandise) so we returned to the BWV to relax at the quiet pool.



We then hopped over to DHS and waited less than 30 minutes for Rise of the Resistance.



We even managed to make it over to Epcot for Harmonious.



For a day that was supposed to be WDW's most crowded since reopening, it turned out to be a most enjoyable experience.

 

[shawthorne44]

I hope the lull in the crowds will continue at least until next spring. We are doing a trip in Feb 2022 that has been postponed. I'd become resigned to high-moderate crowds due to revenge travel, and possibly a tidal wave of international travelers.

I'm also a bit grumpy about most of the changes Disney has made. So, I'd like to see the resorts stay empty-ish so that they have to bring on-site benefits back. That wouldn't effect me since any improvements would come too late for me.