Rethinking my entire DVC strategy...help!

[walt34]

Correct - and that’s because at the time they had the demand for direct points.

That’s what it all comes down to. Is there demand for a direct Disney product at full price vs resale. I believe Disney believes the restrictions will increase that demand, which in turn will increase ROFR’s on these products.

I can see how resale restrictions lower resale prices. I cannot quite see why they would increase demand for direct at full price? The demand for RIV at the moment is probably mostly driven by it still being the 'shiny new thing' and by being featured in the marketing materials.

 

[Jwaire]

Correct - and that’s because at the time they had the demand for direct points.

That’s what it all comes down to. Is there demand for a direct Disney product at full price vs resale. I believe Disney believes the restrictions will increase that demand, which in turn will increase ROFR’s on these products.

There will always be direct demand at those resorts because they have the best locations, amenities, features and many of them are iconic Walt Disney World.

They use SSR as a permanent entry “drop” product. And AKL as an “unique experience” with a value price point.

It just amounts to what they plan on marketing. Most people do not know about resale. When they need more points, they call Disney. That’s the beauty of direct sales.

The user base on this forum does not represent the typical DVC buyer.

 

[Cfabar1]

I can’t rule it out as a possibility but also wonder how many people actually fit into that category if they could own at the next version of BCV/BWV direct instead.

Ding ding ding... We have a winner! I'd buy that resort with restrictions and never look back... Especially if the put some meaningful refurbishments into these properties....

 

[accm]

Has anyone else gone somewhat far down their DVC journey and then questioned their entire strategy? Apologies in advance for the rambling…

Background: I own CCV, BWV and GVF resale – adore CCV/BWV and use those points exclusively at those resorts whereas GFV are largely SAP+ pts.

I’m in the market for my last 250-300 points and want them to be direct. Ideally this purchase would happen this year as we’re planning a large family trip next summer, and I’d like to take advantage of the extra points/blue card benefits.

Last week, I started down the path to purchase 300 direct @ RIV (though I haven’t yet signed the contract - notary appt is tmrw) - I have a June UY so waiting until summer incentives isn't ideal. I'm completely torn over whether to follow through. Given how much I love Crescent Lake and EPCOT (esp. World Showcase), I feel like I’ve talked myself into thinking Riv is the right move for direct resort in a post 2042 world.

But this little voice keeps whispering ‘buy where you love’…and if I follow that advice, it’s not Riv. Riv is a beautiful resort – we visit every trip and really enjoy our time there - and maybe that's enough reason to buy? But it’s still nowhere near BWV or BCV in my book and I'm struggling with that.

Obviously, no one can predict the future but if I buy Riv and 5 years from now they decide to convert Yacht Club (a girl can dream), my buyer’s remorse would be off the charts. And while I have zero intention of selling, I am personally finding it hard to ignore the resale restrictions entirely.

I keep coming back to 2 scenarios:

Original scenario:

• Buy direct Riv now taking advantage of strong 300 pt incentives to lock in blue card benefits

Alternate Scenario:

• Buy 150 direct Poly (assuming this stays the minimum buy in) to lock in blue card benefits with no resale restrictions, and give us the extra points we need for next summer
• Invest the money saved by not buying Riv and buy at a CL property whenever it opens…5 years, 2043, and sell VGF since I will have already had a monorail resort in Poly.

Scenario 2 came to me at 2AM so maybe that in and of itself is a sign to hit pause…WWYD?? Welcome all the collective wisdom from you kind folks!

A few questions for you to consider
1 - why do you want direct points? Do you want unrestricted points that can be used anywhere? Do you want the blue card? Is there a particular reason you want the blue card?
2 - why Poly instead of RIV? From what you've said, RIV sounds like a better fit. I also think financially, RIV makes more sense. You'll get 2023 UY points, and I have a hard time believe Poly will start at the price you can get RIV for right now.

I think in your position, if I was certain I wanted direct points, I'd get 150 RIV points ASAP to get the 2023 UY points, and then after staying there, decide if you want to get additional points there, or resale at one of your preferred resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

I’m not trying to debate future hypotheticals when DVC can change its mind and business plan at any time (and likely will before RIV or PVB sell out) but I’m genuinely not following the thinking here. Why do you think DVC is going to set a ROFR floor on 50% of direct pricing for RIV if they don’t do it for AKL, CCV, or BLT today?

I don’t think DVD would ROFR to set a floor..but it would happen naturally.

We see this all the time…look at what is currently happening with PVB…when DVD begins taking contracts, the markets natural response is buyers paying more to get past it and sellers wanting more because of it.

If, when sold out, DVD decided to start taking RIv because it’s low, then those that want to get over that threshold, because direct is still a lot, will pay more.

So, it would be an interesting because it could stabilize the market for restricted resorts.

TBH, though, I don’t see it as strategy they do, but as long as it’s a possibility, it might play a role.

Which comes back to my own opinion that trying to use resale value as a major part of the decision and avoiding a resort you enjoy because of what could happen, might not work the way one thinks because DVD can do so many things that none of us can even imagine right now.

 

[AstroBlasters]

It got the best glow up for sure. It looks like a different hotel.

View attachment 863616

https://vacatia.com/orlando/disney-...ort-spa-vacation-rentals/two-bedroom-two-bath
View attachment 863617

https://dvcnews.com/resorts/saratog...zing-the-saratoga-springs-villa-refurbishment

Outside of the flooring and Murphy bed…. I think I like the better before…..

 

[tidefan]

I don’t think DVD would ROFR to set a floor..but it would happen naturally.

We see this all the time…look at what is currently happening with PVB…when DVD begins taking contracts, the markets natural response is buyers paying more to get past it and sellers wanting more because of it.

If, when sold out, DVD decided to start taking RIv because it’s low, then those that want to get over that threshold, because direct is still a lot, will pay more.

So, it would be an interesting because it could stabilize the market for restricted resorts.

TBH, though, I don’t see it as strategy they do, but as long as it’s a possibility, it might play a role.

Which comes back to my own opinion that trying to use resale value as a major part of the decision and avoiding a resort you enjoy because of what could happen, might not work the way one thinks because DVD can do so many things that none of us can even imagine right now.

I personally don't think that once RIV sells out that they will worry to much about ROFR per se. I will stick to my belief that if they feel that more demand is there, they will tear down the Aruba section of CBR and build high point "Mediterranean Villas" which will be similar to the Cabins at CC or the Bungalows in terms of point cost, then add them to the existing RIV association, then sell these new points by showing new buyers that they can use these points to snag Duo studios and Standard View villas in the original building.

 

[Sandisw]

I personally don't think that once RIV sells out that they will worry to much about ROFR per se. I will stick to my belief that if they feel that more demand is there, they will tear down the Aruba section of CBR and build high point "Mediterranean Villas" which will be similar to the Cabins at CC or the Bungalows in terms of point cost, then add them to the existing RIV association, then sell these new points by showing new buyers that they can use these points to snag Duo studios and Standard View villas in the original building.

That would work for me…and mean my resale RiV points would be good there!

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Update: OP here - after much deliberation and many sleepless nights (literally), I've decided to move ahead with Riviera. Ultimately I decided that I value the longer expiration date + ability to book all resorts + relative proximity to IG. If I didn't already have a BWV contract, I may have leaned in this direction but Riviera gets me close enough to the park I love the most regardless of what happens post 2042. Plus - as my young DD pointed out - she wants to stay at Riviera for the pizza

I opted for two FWs, one of which is 153 points, so even down the road if I needed to/wanted to sell the other FW, I would still be able to maintain blue card.

I want to again thank everyone for helping me think through this decision. Since I joined these boards several months ago, I have been blown away by the generosity of you all in sharing your knowledge and experiences.

 

[tidefan]

Update: OP here - after much deliberation and many sleepless nights (literally), I've decided to move ahead with Riviera. Ultimately I decided that I value the longer expiration date + ability to book all resorts + relative proximity to IG. If I didn't already have a BWV contract, I may have leaned in this direction but Riviera gets me close enough to the park I love the most regardless of what happens post 2042. Plus - as my young DD pointed out - she wants to stay at Riviera for the pizza

I opted for two FWs, one of which is 153 points, so even down the road if I needed to/wanted to sell the other FW, I would still be able to maintain blue card.

I want to again thank everyone for helping me think through this decision. Since I joined these boards several months ago, I have been blown away by the generosity of you all in sharing your knowledge and experiences.

Congratulations! And remember, there are no "wrong" decisions, only the ones that are best for you! Hope you enjoy your purchase as much as we have enjoyed ours!

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I personally don't think that once RIV sells out that they will worry to much about ROFR per se. I will stick to my belief that if they feel that more demand is there, they will tear down the Aruba section of CBR and build high point "Mediterranean Villas" which will be similar to the Cabins at CC or the Bungalows in terms of point cost, then add them to the existing RIV association, then sell these new points by showing new buyers that they can use these points to snag Duo studios and Standard View villas in the original building.

Interesting theory but if RIV doesn't sell out until 2027 (maybe later if Poly really eats into its sales for the next year) then the turnaround for this would have to be very quick, if they can even do it with 40 years left on the contract.

Not for nothing, if they had added water/boat access from RIV to Epcot and then added those Mediterranean Villas as a Bungalow/Cabin option?... I'd never be able to afford them but what a dream

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Update: OP here - after much deliberation and many sleepless nights (literally), I've decided to move ahead with Riviera. Ultimately I decided that I value the longer expiration date + ability to book all resorts + relative proximity to IG. If I didn't already have a BWV contract, I may have leaned in this direction but Riviera gets me close enough to the park I love the most regardless of what happens post 2042. Plus - as my young DD pointed out - she wants to stay at Riviera for the pizza

I opted for two FWs, one of which is 153 points, so even down the road if I needed to/wanted to sell the other FW, I would still be able to maintain blue card.

I want to again thank everyone for helping me think through this decision. Since I joined these boards several months ago, I have been blown away by the generosity of you all in sharing your knowledge and experiences.

Woo welcome home! The 2 FWs should give you some assurance when it comes to potential resale value, nice job! I'm curious, did you get 2023 "points" or does your FW start with 2024 and if you use MB it would take back those points?

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Woo welcome home! The 2 FWs should give you some assurance when it comes to potential resale value, nice job! I'm curious, did you get 2023 "points" or does your FW start with 2024 and if you use MB it would take back those points?

Thank you!! Now that it's all behind me, I'm actually very excited!
I am going to do MB for my 2023 points, and will get the 2024 points, but they will not book my FW until 2025. I'm not sure if that's standard regardless or if it had to do w/ my choice of FW in the fall.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Thank you!! Now that it's all behind me, I'm actually very excited!
I am going to do MB for my 2023 points, and will get the 2024 points, but they will not book my FW until 2025. I'm not sure if that's standard regardless or if it had to do w/ my choice of FW in the fall.

Interesting, probably because it's too late to book a FW for 2024 since we're well within 7mo booking now and there probably just isn't availability. Either way you got the 2023 points and a whole lot of points coming in a few days for the next year! Enjoy booking with all those points!

 

[tidefan]

Interesting theory but if RIV doesn't sell out until 2027 (maybe later if Poly really eats into its sales for the next year) then the turnaround for this would have to be very quick, if they can even do it with 40 years left on the contract.

Not for nothing, if they had added water/boat access from RIV to Epcot and then added those Mediterranean Villas as a Bungalow/Cabin option?... I'd never be able to afford them but what a dream

Certain parts of Aruba are even closer to the Riviera skyline station than Riviera is. I think that land may be too valuable now for them not to do something with it.

I mean, Disney will have a lot of options to consider down the road if DVC remains successful. I always subscribe to the adage that the path of least resistance is the way people will go. Now, this may deserve it's own thread, but there are some infrastructure things that are already in place that Disney could use to go in a number of directions.

• Aruba is the first thought that comes to my mind here.
• Reflections/River Country Lodge also makes sense.
• There was original plans for a resort between TTC and CR. Not sure if the land is feasible there.
• The rumored EPCOT parking lot resort
• Putting something along the STOL runway parallel to the EPCOT monorail.
• Doing something (Skyliner expansion?) with the existing Monorail easement that runs out to SSR and to DS. While it would definitely benefit SSR (and maybe OKW, though I think the easement there is on the other side of Disney Vacation Club way), I think that it would most benefit POFQ, and I think POFQ would make a great DVC property if done right...

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Congratulations! And remember, there are no "wrong" decisions, only the ones that are best for you! Hope you enjoy your purchase as much as we have enjoyed ours!

Thank you so much!!!

 

[byurick]

Doing something (Skyliner expansion?) with the existing Monorail easement that runs out to SSR and to DS. While it would definitely benefit SSR (and maybe OKW, though I think the easement there is on the other side of Disney Vacation Club way), I think that it would most benefit POFQ, and I think POFQ would make a great DVC property if done right...

OMG the wife and I love French Quarter, if they made that a DVC property would be an instant buy for us.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Now, this may deserve it's own thread

I do love a speculation and theory thread

 

[AstroBlasters]

Update: OP here - after much deliberation and many sleepless nights (literally), I've decided to move ahead with Riviera. Ultimately I decided that I value the longer expiration date + ability to book all resorts + relative proximity to IG. If I didn't already have a BWV contract, I may have leaned in this direction but Riviera gets me close enough to the park I love the most regardless of what happens post 2042. Plus - as my young DD pointed out - she wants to stay at Riviera for the pizza

I opted for two FWs, one of which is 153 points, so even down the road if I needed to/wanted to sell the other FW, I would still be able to maintain blue card.

I want to again thank everyone for helping me think through this decision. Since I joined these boards several months ago, I have been blown away by the generosity of you all in sharing your knowledge and experiences.

Welcome Home! It’s a beautiful resort and I wish your family many wonderful memories there and everywhere else your direct points take you.

Pro move with the fixed week!

 

[Sandisw]

Update: OP here - after much deliberation and many sleepless nights (literally), I've decided to move ahead with Riviera. Ultimately I decided that I value the longer expiration date + ability to book all resorts + relative proximity to IG. If I didn't already have a BWV contract, I may have leaned in this direction but Riviera gets me close enough to the park I love the most regardless of what happens post 2042. Plus - as my young DD pointed out - she wants to stay at Riviera for the pizza

I opted for two FWs, one of which is 153 points, so even down the road if I needed to/wanted to sell the other FW, I would still be able to maintain blue card.

I want to again thank everyone for helping me think through this decision. Since I joined these boards several months ago, I have been blown away by the generosity of you all in sharing your knowledge and experiences.

Congratulations!!!! Welcome to the RIV family!