Maybe... I think it is too soon to tell, and as we have seen DVC has no problem changing tactics with ROFR all the time - so that could be true for a period of time, and then go in a completely different direction!
I'd think a little lower... Somewhere between VGF and the other 2064-2068 resorts...
Historically DVC focuses on selling the new resort, which generates a huge return on investment for them. They’ve never been particularly interested in making money from recycling points via ROFR. Riviera is in year 6 of sales & has a couple of years to go before it’s sold out, thus, I don’t think demand for Riviera will suddenly increase once it’s finally sold out & no longer being actively marketed by DVC.
Generally resale prices on resorts w/ more points - like SSR w/ 14 million - are cheaper than resorts w/ less points overall. Riv. has 6.7 million points, VGF has 4.3 million, BLT has 5.7 million, AKV has 7.4, so I’d think long term w/out restrictions it would slot in higher than AKV & lower than BLT.
Yea, i agree, it would be surprising if it was as high as VGF.
I must agree on the CB food. Sebastian’s is severely underrated. I would go back there any trip. Great food!
I am going to be the contrarian on this, but I think that since the refurb, the rooms at SSR are every bit as nice. I know I am in the minority on this, and that’s OK. We all like different things. However, I really really think that the rooms at Saratoga underwent a major upgrade in the last refurbishment.
Exactly. There will be a floor on RIV prices (probably no less than half direct prices IMO). Disney isn’t going to sit by and let free money disappear. ROFR is going to be like magic money making pixie dust for restricted properties (once they sell out).
I’m not trying to debate future hypotheticals when DVC can change its mind and business plan at any time (and likely will before RIV or PVB sell out) but I’m genuinely not following the thinking here. Why do you think DVC is going to set a ROFR floor on 50% of direct pricing for RIV if they don’t do it for AKL, CCV, or BLT today?
Because the value of direct RIV points is higher vs resale vs AKL, CCV, etc. There’s essentially no difference between direct and resale AKL or CCV points (other than the typical discounts, etc). There will continue to be real demand for direct RIV points, even after they sell through.
So the theory is that people will want to pay direct for RIV in 5-10 years because the resale value proposition is so low, but people love the resort so much that they will pay 2x resale to be able to stay there and also have the optionality to stay at other DVC properties? I can’t rule it out as a possibility but also wonder how many people actually fit into that category if they could own at the next version of BCV/BWV direct instead.
I understand your point here. Your saying that DVD will basically always have the incentive to buy back RIV points because there will always be an arbitrage for buying them low (ROFR) and selling them back direct at a higher rate. I think that would be a good strategy for them with the restrictions (and may even have been their original plan) but we don't REALLY know if it would actually be profitable for them. Yes there is currently a big gap between the pricing of RIV resale and direct - let's just use $100pp as our value. As the consumer that sounds huge right? Of course they would buy that back and resell every time. But we don't really have any idea about the costs for them to administer ROFR contracts internally - admin fees, legal and filing fees, marketing fees, cost of unsold points/units, depreciation over time of the contract. We think all of those things are small, but really who knows? Maybe the net profit just isn't there unless it's a big contract.
That’s the thing - I don’t think the resale proposition will be as low as some are thinking - because of ROFR.
Correct - and that’s because at the time they had the demand for direct points.
