Rethinking my entire DVC strategy...help!

[BrianLo]

Alternate Scenario:

• Buy 150 direct Poly (assuming this stays the minimum buy in) to lock in blue card benefits with no resale restrictions, and give us the extra points we need for next summer
• Invest the money saved by not buying Riv and buy at a CL property whenever it opens…5 years, 2043, and sell VGF since I will have already had a monorail resort in Poly.

Scenario 2 came to me at 2AM so maybe that in and of itself is a sign to hit pause…WWYD?? Welcome all the collective wisdom from you kind folks!

I'm not sure I am following your logic, which probably means you are very undecided. It seems your priority is CCV and Crescent lake, you spend the entirety of your post talking about them. You already own VGF as sleep around points and don't use them on the monorail as is... so where did Poly all of a sudden pop into your brain?

Do you like RIV better or Poly?

Do you like access to crescent lake better in theory (via skyliner) or would you rather be on the monorail?

If your goal is to just have blue card benefits, I'm actually thinking your best option is 150 RIV before June 1st and then buy a 150 resale CCV or BWV - for whichever area of WDW you feel you want more access to. Or split the difference and seek out 75 point add on contracts for both.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I'm not sure I am following your logic, which probably means you are very undecided. It seems your priority is CCV and Crescent lake, you spend the entirety of your post talking about them. You already own VGF as sleep around points and don't use them on the monorail as is... so where did Poly all of a sudden pop into your brain?

Do you like RIV better or Poly?

Do you like access to crescent lake better in theory (via skyliner) or would you rather be on the monorail?

If your goal is to just have blue card benefits, I'm actually thinking your best option is 150 RIV before June 1st and then buy a 150 resale CCV or BWV - for whichever area of WDW you feel you want more access to. Or split the difference and seek out 75 point add on contracts for both.

I want to be as close to EPCOT and HS for as long as I can (beyond 2042 since I already own BWV) but don’t want a resort with restrictions.

The reality is that I can’t have that…and I’m just nervous that my Plan B (Riv) is a tad too risky for my tastes.

Poly popped into my brain bc it may be my last chance to get direct at an unrestricted resort with a later expiration date. I could get 150 pts and then just wait to see what comes next. But I’ll be the first to admit it’s a reach. What can I say - I don’t do my best thinking at 2 AM .

 

[Cfabar1]

• Buy 150 direct Poly (assuming this stays the minimum buy in) to lock in blue card benefits with no resale restrictions, and give us the extra points we need for next summer
• Invest the money saved by not buying Riv and buy at a CL property whenever it opens…5 years, 2043, and sell VGF since I will have already had a monorail resort in Poly.

Either of these make sense to me.... I'm a big believer in buying points once you find yourself needing them... Easier to offload if you find you no longer want what you think you did before... Also, plans change, so don't buy these final points lightly....

Also, if you don't love RIV I wouldn't buy there... with every resort that is added, trading at 7 months becomes a little bit harder, especially if you're not equally happy with every resort. I am a huge believer in buy where you LOVE... It is way too much money to spend on something you're not convinced you'd want to return to year after year after year....

 

[BrianLo]

I want to be as close to EPCOT and HS for as long as I can (beyond 2042 since I already own BWV) but don’t want a resort with restrictions.

The reality is that I can’t have that…and I’m just nervous that my Plan B (Riv) is a tad too risky for my tastes.

Poly popped into my brain bc it may be my last chance to get direct at an unrestricted resort with a later expiration date. I could get 150 pts and then just wait to see what comes next. But I’ll be the first to admit it’s a reach. What can I say - I don’t do my best thinking at 2 AM .

Direct points are not restricted.

The only bet you are making by swinging to Poly is that it will hold its value better. But by forgoing 2023 use year points, you are already started 20$ in the hole. Then I'm rather confident the incentives and current direct pricing is at least 20$ better at RIV than it will be at Poly for launch. Some people strongly feel direct pricing at Poly is going to launch at an eye watering 250. I very much disagree... So somewhere between me and a pessimist, you are going to pay 40-60$ more per point by waiting on Poly... and you don't even like that resort or area better.

This is a classic case of getting too obsessive about the theoretical resale hit. Buy where you are happier to stay. Which seems like RIV > Poly.

 

[Sandisw]

I want to be as close to EPCOT and HS for as long as I can (beyond 2042 since I already own BWV) but don’t want a resort with restrictions.

The reality is that I can’t have that…and I’m just nervous that my Plan B (Riv) is a tad too risky for my tastes.

Poly popped into my brain bc it may be my last chance to get direct at an unrestricted resort with a later expiration date. I could get 150 pts and then just wait to see what comes next. But I’ll be the first to admit it’s a reach. What can I say - I don’t do my best thinking at 2 AM .

So, you are hesitating on RIV because of some potential loss in resale value that may or may not happen in the future?

IMO, it can be risky to go in expecting any level of resale value because no one knows what DVD may do in the future that could have an impact.

If you got RIV today and held it for 5 years, do you think you’d be able to sell it for half? Would that half you’d lose be at least equal in value to the cash value of trips?

Once RIV is sold old, and one can only get it resale, could it settle in for more than today? How about if more and more resorts are restricted? How would you feel if you pass it up and DVd reverses course and removes them?

My point is that there are just so many variables in terms of selling down the road that while I get it can be a concern, in the long run, would you get the value you want to be able to be in the area you want?

 

[Cfabar1]

I don’t think 300 points at RIV is a lot - my hot take is it’s pretty close to the minimum you need if you want to be staying there consistently. With the point chart, that gets you around a week in a 1 bedroom. If you are ever wanting 2 bedrooms, you are going to want even more than that.

Yeah.... Keep in mind OKW opened with a 230 point minimum.... That sounds about right to me for resorts with OKW points chart.... So, about 300 sounds like the good BARE minimum for RIV and VGF.... Or at least a plan to get there if not immediately....

 

[TinkAgainU]

...Right now, RIV's point charts are among the highest, but once BCV and BWV reopen ...

I'm confused by your comments such as "when they reopen" both resorts BCV and BWV are open (I just stayed at the BWV and the remodel is beautiful) and both resorts are available for Direct purchase just like Aulani or Riviera? BWV is currently at $240pp and BCV $275pp from DVC direct. As to the Point Charts, DVC can re-allocate existing points within a resort (within reason), but cannot simply increase the point chart overall?

 

[Cfabar1]

So, you are hesitating on RIV because of some potential loss in resale value that may or may not happen in the future?

IMO, it can be risky to go in expecting any level of resale value because no one knows what DVD may do in the future that could have an impact.

If you got RIV today and held it for 5 years, do you think you’d be able to sell it for half? Would that half you’d lose be at least equal in value to the cash value of trips?

Once RIV is sold old, and one can only get it resale, could it settle in for more than today? How about if more and more resorts are restricted? How would you feel if you pass it up and DVd reverses course and removes them?

My point is that there are just so many variables in terms of selling down the road that while I get it can be a concern, in the long run, would you get the value you want to be able to be in the area you want?

All GREAT questions to ask.... I've noticed DVC owners seem to forget that cash rooms cost money too! They seem to forget also that dues exist, though not folks on the DISBoards as much....

I personally think a great unknown with RIV is will it be maintained at the same level of luxury as time goes on and more resorts are added to the system. A fair thing to consider in my view. It might look dated in 20 years... And they might purposely use less high-end or in demand finishes at that time to make whatever the newer resort is look even better. That seems less likely to me at the Poly, BLT, GF, etc.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'm confused by your comments such as "when they reopen" both resorts BCV and BWV are open (I just stayed at the BWV and the remodel is beautiful) and both resorts are available for Direct purchase just like Aulani or Riviera? BWV is currently at $240pp and BCV $275pp from DVC direct. As to the Point Charts, DVC can re-allocate existing points within a resort (within reason), but cannot simply increase the point chart overall?

I think they are referring to starting in 2043....

I think there is some room for them to raise the charts, but my view personally is, unless amenities are significantly enhanced, VGF as the flagship resort should set the "high point" of points charts. So by that logic, Beach Club should have a points chart almost identical to VGF or Poly and BWV might, or might be say 5-10% less than that...

But then again, who knows how greedy disney will be at that time....

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

We couldn’t get over the red flags with RIV though, especially when other choices felt less risky. If you end up wanting a different resort for home privilege and selling has a decent shot of being one of the crappier salvage values in DVC. Double whammy. I’d feel better reducing chance of one of those concerns. Either have a better feeling about sticking with the resort or buying somewhere that had a better chance at salvage value.

You nailed it - it’s the double whammy that’s keeping me up at night. I honestly didn’t have any of this anxiety with my other resale purchases…just excitement. I didn’t anticipate feeling this way, but here I am.

Thank you for weighing in!

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I think they are referring to starting in 2043....

I think there is some room for them to raise the charts, but my view personally is, unless amenities are significantly enhanced, VGF as the flagship resort should set the "high point" of points charts. So by that logic, Beach Club should have a points chart almost identical to VGF or Poly and BWV might, or might be say 5-10% less than that...

But then again, who knows how greedy disney will be at that time....

Yes, thank you - this is what I meant. If/when they reopen in 2043.

 

[Sandisw]

All GREAT questions to ask.... I've noticed DVC owners seem to forget that cash rooms cost money too! They seem to forget also that dues exist, though not folks on the DISBoards as much....

I personally think a great unknown with RIV is will it be maintained at the same level of luxury as time goes on and more resorts are added to the system. A fair thing to consider in my view. It might look dated in 20 years... And they might purposely use less high-end or in demand finishes at that time to make whatever the newer resort is look even better. That seems less likely to me at the Poly, BLT, GF, etc.

But that can be said for any resort…many said that BLT was done poorly from the start..it showed wear pretty quickly…we were owners back then.

If we try to over analyze ever single “what if” it can make it hard and I just think that too many unknowns in the future to go too crazy with trying to figure it out.

If one is buying RiV today for around $175…I think the price with MB for 300 points.,,then one is most likely going to be able to sell next year around $115 to $120? Yes, a loss but is one really going to sell in one year unless it’s an emergency ch situation thst forces one to?

Now, if one has to buy PVB tower and it is $200, you are already spending $25/pt more right off the bat…if PVB is in direct sales, at that price, the resale is going back down and one is probably going to lose at least $50/pt if one sells in a year to put PvB back around the $150 mark…

The way I see it, the difference in loss may be small enough to not worry if being closer to Epcot vs MK is important. But, as I have always said no one should buy any resort if it’s not one that one would enjoy being at during their trips.

 

[Chili327]

Alternate Scenario:

• Buy 150 direct Poly (assuming this stays the minimum buy in) to lock in blue card benefits with no resale restrictions, and give us the extra points we need for next summer
• Invest the money saved by not buying Riv and buy at a CL property whenever it opens…5 years, 2043, and sell VGF since I will have already had a monorail resort in Poly.

Scenario 2 came to me at 2AM so maybe that in and of itself is a sign to hit pause…WWYD?? Welcome all the collective wisdom from you kind folks!

I like the alternate better than option 1.

At least wait to see what the Poly offerings are. I think you could have some regrets if you don’t.

Yes, agree i would probably wait, just to see what the option actually is.

I meant that it’s a lot to try to resell as a block of restricted points. Not sure that 75-150 point contracts are doing that much better on the resale market but people are likely going to be anxious about committing to a resort where they have to spend 300 points a year if they aren’t absolutely certain they can book more than 7mo out.

Editing because @Sprinkles&Sprints provided more info as I was posting— I think 2 fixed weeks makes a ton of sense and should help with resale at RIV (or any other restricted resale resort).

Agree, i wouldn't buy 300 direct at all, anywhere.

Poly popped into my brain bc it may be my last chance to get direct at an unrestricted resort with a later expiration date. I could get 150 pts and then just wait to see what comes next. But I’ll be the first to admit it’s a reach. What can I say - I don’t do my best thinking at 2 AM .

CCV is unrestricted and an even later expiration date, & you already love it.



All in all i wouldn't buy more than 150 direct (anywhere), then once yu decide which resort to buy direct i would buy more resale where you want to be. If 150 will cover your trip, then just get that AFTER Poly comes out so you know what you're option is there, but then go get 150 CCV.

Then add as much resale BWV as you want/feel is needed.

 

[Royal Consort]

I’m in the market for my last 250-300 points and want them to be direct. Ideally this purchase would happen this year as we’re planning a large family trip next summer, and I’d like to take advantage of the extra points/blue card benefits.

Last week, I started down the path to purchase 300 direct @ RIV (though I haven’t yet signed the contract - notary appt is tmrw)

But this little voice keeps whispering ‘buy where you love’…and if I follow that advice, it’s not Riv. Riv is a beautiful resort – we visit every trip and really enjoy our time there - and maybe that's enough reason to buy? But it’s still nowhere near BWV or BCV in my book and I'm struggling with that.

It seems to me that this is actually a debate between resale and direct. Do not buy a resort you don't love. That's silly. If you prefer BWV or BC, buy those but there's no value in buying them direct. So you COULD buy where you love, but that will come at the sacrifice of the blue card/direct points. Or you could buy somewhere you think is adequate and have those direct points but having the emotional cost of not owning where you love.

Do you want direct points or own where you love?

 

[Chili327]

It seems to me that this is actually a debate between resale and direct. Do not buy a resort you don't love. That's silly. If you prefer BWV or BC, buy those but there's no value in buying them direct. So you COULD buy where you love, but that will come at the sacrifice of the blue card/direct points. Or you could buy somewhere you think is adequate and have those direct points but having the emotional cost of not owning where you love.

Do you want direct points or own where you love?

Nope, the answer is still CCV.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

A big thank you to everyone for jumping in and sharing your thoughts - I really appreciate you taking the time to help me think this through from different perspectives and asking the tough (but needed) questions.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

It seems to me that this is actually a debate between resale and direct. Do not buy a resort you don't love. That's silly. If you prefer BWV or BC, buy those but there's no value in buying them direct. So you COULD buy where you love, but that will come at the sacrifice of the blue card/direct points. Or you could buy somewhere you think is adequate and have those direct points but having the emotional cost of not owning where you love.

Do you want direct points or own where you love?

If you had asked me this last week I would have said direct...but then I started doubting myself, and thus the sleepless nights. But I know I have a choice to make in what I value more.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If you had asked me this last week I would have said direct...but then I started doubting myself, and thus the sleepless nights. But I know I have a choice to make in what I value more.

I think you know your answer then. Buy the 2042 resorts and enjoy the heck out of them for the next 17 years!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think you know your answer then. Buy the 2042 resorts and enjoy the heck out of them for the next 17 years!

I see a lot of messaging making it sound like 2042 is tomorrow. But you could be sending a baby born today off to college around then. That’s a lot of memories you could be making at a resort you love!

 

[Cfabar1]

I see a lot of messaging making it sound like 2042 is tomorrow. But you could be sending a baby born today off to college around then. That’s a lot of memories you could be making at a resort you love!

SO true... plus, after 18 years or so you could decide you've seen enough of Disney and be glad to just have it expiring.... Making a 40 year commitment is a huge thing!