Resale Pricing Outlook?

[wdwdaddy4life]

Hi! I was just wondering what everyone thinks will happen (short term/long term) to resale prices in light of the current state of the economy (Sky high inflation and potential significant stock market correction)? I know the resale prices have been strong as ever recently, but can't help to think that maybe pricing may hit a little dip (along with the housing market) in the next few months. What are everyone's thoughts? I hope my fears are over blown because I'm starting to get a nasty case of addonitis!

 

[Bearval]

Hi! I was just wondering what everyone thinks will happen (short term/long term) to resale prices in light of the current state of the economy (Sky high inflation and potential significant stock market correction)? I know the resale prices have been strong as ever recently, but can't help to think that maybe pricing may hit a little dip (along with the housing market) in the next few months. What are everyone's thoughts? I hope my fears are over blown because I'm starting to get a nasty case of addonitis!

You will need the economy of 2007 to 2009 to see any significant drop. I believe most people expected a big drop during COVID but the prices just kept going up.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Might see a small dip in the short term but history shows that it will always go up, same with the stock market. Hard to time these things. If we can, we’d all be rich.

 

[wdwdaddy4life]

Might see a small dip in the short term but history shows that it will always go up, same with the stock market. Hard to time these things. If we can, we’d all be rich.

Isn't that the truth!lol

 

[Brian Noble]

what everyone thinks will happen

This is my favorite source for making predictions about the future.

I hope my fears are over blown because I'm starting to get a nasty case of addonitis!

Unless you are financing or need to sell some long-term assets to buy, you should be rooting for your fears to come true.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Isn't that the truth!lol

And if we’re ALL rich, then NO ONE is rich And I feel your addonitis pain

 

[Sandisw]

Any potential dip we may see would be small for most of the resorts. I do wonder if we may see a bigger dip for those larger resorts like SSR as people who bought, even just a few years ago can sell if they had to and be close to break even if it went back down to $100 point range.

 

[princesscinderella]

This is my favorite source for making predictions about the future.

This was great! I was almost expecting to get Rick rolled

 

[wdwdaddy4life]

Any potential dip we may see would be small for most of the resorts. I do wonder if we may see a bigger dip for those larger resorts like SSR as people who bought, even just a few years ago can sell if they had to and be close to break even if it went back down to $100 point range.

I happen to agree with you Sandi! I'm looking at adding more Aulani contracts and I'm wondering if sub-$100 per pt deals may return in near future?

 

[corgi_monster]

I happen to agree with you Sandi! I'm looking at adding more Aulani contracts and I'm wondering if sub-$100 per pt deals may return in near future?

I think so because 1. Disney won't buy these contracts back thereby keeping the prices high and 2. Aulani direct with the Dec. incentives weren't too far off from resell.

 

[kanerf]

Up, up, up! I don't see the pricing coming down any time soon. I saw a small BLT contract the other day priced at $204 per point. That is ridiculous.

 

[DVCRad]

You will need the economy of 2007 to 2009 to see any significant drop. I believe most people expected a big drop during COVID but the prices just kept going up.

We did see a drop from COVID, but many people didnt buy hoping it would go lower. I picked up a 100 point Poly for 130 pp. that was around the going rate and most other resorts were also significantly decreased in price. My only regret is not getting GFV instead at that time.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think it's going to come crashing down in the next five years. History always repeats and the covid year did not count because of all the funny money pumped into the economy

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

You will need the economy of 2007 to 2009 to see any significant drop. I believe most people expected a big drop during COVID but the prices just kept going up.

Prices dropped ~20% at the bottom end, it was just very short lived, perhaps for 5-6 weeks? Then we all got massive checks in the mail and supply constricted very quickly, leading to the current price bubble.

Might see a small dip in the short term but history shows that it will always go up, same with the stock market. Hard to time these things. If we can, we’d all be rich.

Nothing always goes up. May I recommend to you the movie or book The Big Short.

 

[Nabas]

Any potential dip we may see would be small for most of the resorts. I do wonder if we may see a bigger dip for those larger resorts like SSR as people who bought, even just a few years ago can sell if they had to and be close to break even if it went back down to $100 point range.

I wonder, what happens if VGF2 opens at the much discussed $207pp?

Presumably, VGF1 resale will drop. Will that, in turn, cause some small decline in other resale prices?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The number of contracts for sale has quintupled since prices peaked last summer. That prices haven’t dropped appreciably is a testimony to how dedicated the brokers are to keeping prices high.

But average time on market is approaching 2 months. Anyone needing to sell quickly will need to undercut the huge pile of contracts out there.

We seem to be at a stasis for now but any sort of shock to the system, even minor, that causes an increase in white collar unemployment will cause contracts to come up for quick sale. And Disney has shown twice now that in that situation, they will suspend ROFR, letting prices fall. They may not fall quickly, but they will fall if the situation is sustained.

Go look at what happened to prices in 2009-2010.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder, what happens if VGF2 opens at the much discussed $207pp?

Presumably, VGF1 resale will drop. Will that, in turn, cause some small decline in other resale prices?

It is possible that would have an impact on resale if others but for sure I think it will for VGF and we will see that go back to the $160s to $170s as an average.

That could very well cause a seller of places like BLT and PVB accept less too.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

We did see a drop from COVID, but many people didnt buy hoping it would go lower. I picked up a 100 point Poly for 130 pp. that was around the going rate and most other resorts were also significantly decreased in price. My only regret is not getting GFV instead at that time.

We had gotten 220 AKV points at $105 pre-COVID and took advantage of the price drop during the start of the pandemic to pick up another 160 points at $100. I was poised to add on another 50-150 points if prices went even lower, but then they rebounded with a vengeance.

We have enough points for the time being, so addonitis (especially with current resale prices) has waned significantly for us. If there's another price drop down the road, we might snag one more add-on. If resale prices remain high, we might be more inclined to just get 150 direct for blue card and especially to have points to use at Riviera.