Ran some numbers re Genie+, IAS ride costs

[quandrea]

I was thinking about what the true cost of this new system might be. I considered what my plans for 2020 were prior to Covid and ran the costs that I would incur if I traveled exactly as I did before these changes.

I assumed $25 per ride for the top tier attractions.

We are a family of five.

2020 plans (what we had booked prior to Covid)

December —13 nights
February— 5 nights
April— 6 nights
June —7 nights
August —5 nights
October— 6 nights
December —6 nights

48 nights (assume 38 park days)

765.74 Gold Pass cost x 5=$3828.70

Genie+ $75/day ($2850 per year)

Tier 1 rides $2 100 per trip

(given our family’s preferences). Dd doesn’t like coasters so would not always be five people riding.


Mine Train $200


Space mountain $200

Slinky dog $200

Rise of the Resistance $250

Mickey and Minnie $250

Flight Passage $250

Safari $250

Ratatouille $250

Soarin $250

$2100/trip=$14 700/life of AP


GRAND TOTAL

$21 378.70 per life of one AP for five

This figure assumes we in no way change our touring style and get the equal value out of our APs. You can see how truly crazy the numbers are under this new system.

 

[The Jackal]

I don’t think Lightning lane will be $25 per ride. Probably between $8-20, depending on time of year. You can only use it for 2 rides a day. Not sure what you mean by life of AP is. An AP is good for one year. Even going with your numbers. 5 people getting 2 a day @ $25 for 38 park days is $9500. + 2,850 for genie+ and the cost of your AP $3,828= $16,178. So for one pass the total cost per person is $3,235. You can always go in the standby line for any of the E ticket rides.

 

[quandrea]

You’re right about the $9500. Don’t know what I did there. Will revise.

ETA. I stand by my numbers. I calculated how much each IAS would cost my family each trip. Those are the rides we would go on every trip. It came to $2100 x 7 trips during the AP year. $14 700.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Ugh
We personally will not pay for all this. There is just more fun elsewhere to be found with that money. Not sure what we will do in terms of Disney, but we definitely will not be spending this kind of money there.

 

[Brian Noble]

I calculated how much each IAS would cost my family each trip. Those are the rides we would go on every trip. It came to $2100 x 7 trips during the AP year. $14 700.

I think what Jackal was pointing out is that the current description has a limit of two IAS selections per day*. You might pack all of those attractions in a trip, but you can only pay for (at most) two of them each day. The others you will have to ride Standby (or, for RotR/Rat, via Boarding Group); you couldn't pay to shortcut them.

I was thinking about what the true cost of this new system might be. I considered what my plans for 2020 were prior to Covid and ran the costs that I would incur if I traveled exactly as I did before these changes.

You've hit on one of the things that (I believe) is one of the motivations behind G+/LL: to put a floor on the per-day revenue from a guest in the Parks making heavy use of the attractions.

Before any of these changes, the only costs you had for experiencing all of those attractions across all of those days was a DVC-discounted Gold Pass. If my math is right, it comes to less than $21 per person per day. That's about 1.5 hours' pay for a single Cast Member (not counting Disney's unemployment contribution or any other benefits).

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*: From that link, (emphasis added):

Individual attraction selections (available for purchase): Schedule a time to arrive at up to two highly demanded attractions each day using the Lightning Lane entrance – like Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at Magic Kingdom Park and Radiator Springs Racers at Disney California Adventure park (subject to limited availability; attractions not included with Disney Genie+). Pricing for this option will vary by date, attraction and park and will be announced closer to launch.

 

[quandrea]

I think what Jackal was pointing out is that the current description has a limit of two IAS selections per day*. You might pack all of those attractions in a trip, but you can only pay for (at most) two of them each day. The others you will have to ride Standby (or, for RotR/Rat, via Boarding Group); you couldn't pay to shortcut them.


You've hit on one of the things that (I believe) is one of the motivations behind G+/LL: to put a floor on the per-day revenue from a guest in the Parks making heavy use of the attractions.

Before any of these changes, the only costs you had for experiencing all of those attractions across all of those days was a DVC-discounted Gold Pass. If my math is right, it comes to less than $21 per person per day. That's about 1.5 hours' pay for a single Cast Member (not counting Disney's unemployment contribution or any other benefits).

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*: From that link, (emphasis added):

I understand now. So even if I maxed out the IAS I could never get on all I did before without a wait.

In regards to the $21 per person per day under the old system. Fair enough. But over 48 nights in property, we spent a pretty penny. At least one meal out per day, countless snacks, the odd souvenir. Additionally, I routinely bring guests who buy 3-10 day tickets, buy way more than we do (once in a lifetime trips), I do tours with friends. My per day gate price might be low, but I’m a good Disney customer.

under this new system, I’d be embarrassed to bring friends and family, knowing what it would cost.

 

[Brian Noble]

I’m a good Disney customer.

Based on watching what Disney has been doing for the past year+, I'm not sure they agree with you: They are still not selling APs in Florida, the "new" AP program in Disneyland is both more expensive and restricted, and there hasn't been any announcement of an annual add-on for G+ on either coast.

Maybe they are just being slow, and we'll see something like the old $125/year Max Pass annual add on for the new paid options; that would be good news for frequent fliers. But, I'm not sure we are going to---at least not unless the demand for the Parks takes a sharp downturn.

 

[quandrea]

Based on watching what Disney has been doing for the past year+, I'm not sure they agree with you: They are still not selling APs in Florida, the "new" AP program in Disneyland is both more expensive and restricted, and there hasn't been any announcement of an annual add-on for G+ on either coast.

Maybe they are just being slow, and we'll see something like the old $125/year Max Pass annual add on for the new paid options; that would be good news for frequent fliers. But, I'm not sure we are going to---at least not unless the demand for the Parks takes a sharp downturn.

Yup, you’re probably right. That’s a pretty offensive attitude on their part, given my 860 points. I guess I feel like a good customer.

 

[kanerf]

I doubt that all of the rides you listed will cost extra. I think many will be included with the $15 Genie+. It is supposed to be over 40 rides at WDW.

 

[Brian Noble]

That’s a pretty offensive attitude on their part

For what it's worth, I don't think the new system is going to be all that bad. My experience was that the paper system favored planners/experienced park goers more than FP+ did, and G+ looks a lot more like the old paper system than FP+.

The few attractions the paper system did not work well for were the super-headliners, whose return times got pushed out too far too fast for FP to be of much use. However, those are exactly the attractions with pay-per-use returns (I'm assuming this guess at the list is accurate). Two of those (RotR, Rat) have boarding groups, and experienced guests have a leg up in using that system. Of the six that remain, three (7DMT, Space, TT) will be available during PM EMH for DVC/Deluxe guests. Those plus the others can either be rope-dropped without too much effort (all but 7DMT, FoP, and maybe Slinky) or hit very near close. If push comes to shove, you can pay for one here or there if you really want to.

Because fewer people are likely to be using the paid versions vs. FP+, the standby lines are likely to move faster as well. I might still be waiting, but at least I'll be moving.

Yes, this will all cost a little more, but I don't think it will be anything like $65 pp/pd for most people with a reasonable touring plan.

 

[Disney mac]

I think Disney ends up losing money on this and possibly big time. Sure a small percent of people will pay the $15. But a majority of people will not do this. And the brilliance of FP+ was two fold:
1. It kept people out of lines (which you aren’t spending money in stores and at carts/mealsif you’re in lines)
2. People will be going home saying “Disney has changed” and word of mouth will hurt the brand.

what will the result of the loss of revenue be? Higher ticket prices and higher G+. Also, why would anyone stay on property now when you could save hundreds per night staying offsite?

 

[The Jackal]

Yes on some of your trips you will not be able to go on all the rides twice. But it will cost a lot of extra cash compared to fast pass+. I also don’t think it’s going to cost $25 to go on the rides. I think WD Corporation is going to get a rude awakening when people start staying off property to save money and get genie+. There is probably going to be a lot of empty hotels at WDW. They seem to have forgotten why they offered all those extras for people staying on site.

We liked FP+. Since we are DVC and godown 2 or 3 times a year. We mostly rode the 3 rides we selected Fast passes for and maybe1 or 2 standby rides, eat dinner at a sit down restaurant, buy some merchandise then go back to the resort. No need to spend all day in the park. Maybe we will have more resort days now. My DW will probably say otherwise.

 

[quandrea]

The $25 estimate is what I’ve seen thrown around as an estimate for rides like Rise and 7DMT. Paris is charging 15 euros, which is about $18. So my estimate could be off (hopefully).

Still too much. We are probably looking at more resort only days too.

We had already adjusted for high AP rates by getting an AP one year and using it aggressively. The following year, we’d go down less and skip the parks. That worked for us. No such adjustment is possible here without a huge loss in value.

 

[Brian Noble]

the brilliance of FP+ was two fold:
1. It kept people out of lines (which you aren’t spending money in stores and at carts/mealsif you’re in lines)
2. People will be going home saying “Disney has changed” and word of mouth will hurt the brand.

As to #1: that might have been the motivation, but it didn't work. If you go back and look at the earnings reports for the Parks & Resorts just before and after FP was first deployed, the per-cap spending didn't really change all that much more than it usually does.

And, if you think about it, that makes sense. No one is going to have a fourth meal in the park because they are not in a line, and you only need so many pairs of Mickey Ears. (Well, at least most people don't...) Instead, most people just got in line for some other attraction.

As to #2: people say this every time something gets more expensive at the Parks. It hasn't happened yet. Will this be the exception? Maybe, but I wouldn't put money on it.