PVB Points Chart !

[WilsonFlyer]

No, actually it's not. Disney's core values are (in order): safety, courtesy, show, and efficiency. I'm not making this up or swallowing the kook aide, this stuff is focussed on at all levels and is part of how they got ranked as the worlds most ethical company. It is about profit, of course, but profit within the context of safety, courtesy, and show. Sorry... it's a bit of a pet peeve ;-)

What does that have to do with what I said at all?

 

[beer dave]

Points are points, and as such will be sold regardless if buyer intent to stay in Bungalows, stay in Studios, or use them at other resorts, Disney Cruises, Disney Hotels, Adventures by Disney, etc. As such, completely agree 99% of Poly buyers will want to stay in Studios to maximize their points, despite only 75% of points being available in Studios, effectively overselling the studios. This is what happened at VGF, where Studios regularly sell out at 7-11 mos. That said, it's a closed system in which all DVC points get used -- no one let's their point simply expire. At worst they deposit them with RCI to extend their use for 2 years, in which case the points still get used -- by an exchanger. Or they get used for other DVC resorts, based on availability at time of booking, or get used to book Disney Hotels, Cruise, or Adventures by Disney, in which case Disney gets the points, and rents out excess inventory (including the Bungalows).

I'm missing the point here-- If it is that the points will be sold, then we all agree. If it is something else, I don't get it...

 

[beer dave]

What does that have to do with what I said at all?

I missed that also at first, but I think it is just to the It's all about the profit comment.

 

[skier_pete]

This is where we disagree-- the people buying the poly, as they were with GF, will mostly buy enough for a studio at the poly for whatever their yearly trip requirements are. The poly as 360 studios, but enough points for 480 studios. Unless the 1 m points allotted to the bungalows are actually used for bungalows (highly unlikely) the demand for studios will increase and availability will drop. The caveat to this would be if some of the new poly owners would upgrade to a 1 bedroom at one of the cheaper resorts since the poly studio requires more points. The alternative is "hey we can't get in at the poly, but if we get a studio at BWV we cam stay for 9 nights instead of 7.. or we could go in a more point pricier time of year.. which I think is more likely.

I'm gonna have to with Dave this time, Pete (finally! )...

I see alot of references to people buying "x type of room for a week or x many days"

That is not the Disney sale model and not how they market and sell. That's how the old style timeshare goes that they have gone great lengths to try and distinguish themselves from.

The poly will be bought in 175-400 point blocks predominantly as all the others have sold.

Will there be people buying 1000, 1500, and up? Quite possibly - but that won't be for "a bungalow the week of thanksgiving"

First... Disney won't sell that way because they can't back up availability. There was a rumor they did that at GF but I never saw any confirmation of it. They can't - nor would they want to. Disney wants you to "fill the holes" in the calendar...not create them. That would be bad business.

So the point?

As Dave said...people will throw 25-50K average at the poly development...then they will do what those of us that spent 10-25K years ago do:
They will jump around and try to maximize their stays and time in Orlando ( other things...

I don't think we are that far off. I agree at first the Poly studios will be overbooked, 95 % of buyers getting 150-250 points and staying in studios.

But I think over time you will get what you get with other DVC properties.
1) Buyers will want to spread out and try other DVC properties.
2) Buyers will want more points so that they can book a larger room.
3) Buyers will "save up" points to take whole family in a 2-bedroom somewhere.
4) Buyers will notice better "Value" for their points elsewhere, and will try out the other resorts as well.

This happens with each resort, the difference here is #2 and #3 cannot occur at the Poly, therefore these buyers will spread quickly to other resorts.

This is maybe bad for those that want to book BCV at 7 months - but my point is I think quite a # of people buy-in to DVC with the idea of just getting studios, yet they eventually open their horizons to a 1-bedroom. The studios remain the most popular and the quickest to sell out. However, I think that overall the % of DVCers that WANT a studio will eventually flatten out. (NOT at initial buy-in, but down the road.) Just saying that having a higher inventory of studios is overall good for those of us that want to stay in studios.

As far as a Phase II, it's possible. I think the reason for building so many studios is three fold (1) ease of conversion, (2) fast to market, and (3) a new model of wanting a higher concentration of studios (i.e. supply and demand). With higher buy-in pricing, it's probably gotten a lot harder to sell people on buying enough points for a 2-bedroom. However, there IS demand for the 1- and 2-bedrooms. The only thing that gives me pause is if there really was going to be a tower, wouldn't you think you would already see it going in?? Second, would they be worried that a tower of 2-bedrooms at "normal" point prices would make the Poly bungalows a much harder sell.

 

[dwight16]

got my phone call from a 407 number yesterday for sales.....shocked they wanted 160 per point and you need 180ish points for a week! same level as VGF and the kicker over 6 dollars per point in maintenance. so you need to spend 28,800ish plus 1000ish on maintenance even a full rate of 400 a night for a poly room for 7 days is 2800 a year take out the 1000 for maintenance and your left with 1800 a year of real use......that would take you 16 years to break even! i mean who in their right might would do that man i cant wait for this investment to pay off in 16 years lol

 

[lockedoutlogic]

got my phone call from a 407 number yesterday for sales.....shocked they wanted 160 per point and you need 180ish points for a week! same level as VGF and the kicker over 6 dollars per point in maintenance. so you need to spend 28,800ish plus 1000ish on maintenance even a full rate of 400 a night for a poly room for 7 days is 2800 a year take out the 1000 for maintenance and your left with 1800 a year of real use......that would take you 16 years to break even! i mean who in their right might would do that man i cant wait for this investment to pay off in 16 years lol

It's a big problem..
The "break even" point moving farther and farther in the distance.

At some point - when the break even point meets the contract end...there'll be a word for that:

RETAIL

 

[theww228]

so you need to spend 28,800ish plus 1000ish on maintenance even a full rate of 400 a night for a poly room for 7 days is 2800 a year take out the 1000 for maintenance and your left with 1800 a year of real use......that would take you 16 years to break even! i mean who in their right might would do that man i cant wait for this investment to pay off in 16 years lol

I agree completely, but will you be able to get a poly room for $400/nt in the future with the dramatic reduction of rooms? Will they be $500 or $600 in the near future when the resort updates are complete?

 

[gmi3804]

The common mistake people make is in thinking of DVC as an investment, rather than what it really is, which is a lock-in at today's prices (MF increases notwithstanding) for years' worth of vacations, often times in nicer/larger accommodations.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

The common mistake people make is in thinking of DVC as an investment, rather than what it really is, which is a lock-in at today's prices (MF increases notwithstanding) for years' worth of vacations, often times in nicer/larger accommodations.

Also, based on those Member Insider comments, it seems as though many people are under the impression that DVC will bring them closer to Mickey or get them enough pixie dust for regular trips to Neverland.

 

[dwight16]

its just crazy to think how much it all costs these days i have 220t total points i paid around 16k for all those points. that would cost me 35k now. if you look a dollar and cents its harder and harder to justify buying new points. when you can stay in Caribbean beach for 170ish a night and i compare that to SSR and OKW buying the dream does not seam worth it. trips for 3 days or less we still just pay for a room rather then the 30 to 60 points and save them for a bigger trip.....

 

[skier_pete]

got my phone call from a 407 number yesterday for sales.....shocked they wanted 160 per point and you need 180ish points for a week! same level as VGF and the kicker over 6 dollars per point in maintenance. so you need to spend 28,800ish plus 1000ish on maintenance even a full rate of 400 a night for a poly room for 7 days is 2800 a year take out the 1000 for maintenance and your left with 1800 a year of real use......that would take you 16 years to break even! i mean who in their right might would do that man i cant wait for this investment to pay off in 16 years lol

Well, I think your "$400 a night" for the Poly is probably a little conservative. The lowest price I see for the Poly is $483 a night during value season.

Compare Apples to Apples. A standard view room in October/November is $511 weekday/ $575 weekend. Be kind and assume a 30% discounted rate, but 12.5 % resort tax...and you end up right where you say - $2900 for a week. However, points requirements for a week are 130 points - NOT 180ish, so $20,800 up front and $780 per year is a break-even of 9-10 years.

If you want to compare 180ish points, a week in a lagoon view room in May is 183 points, but rack rate is $750-$800 a night - or $5415 for a week. Same as above (30 % discount 12.5% tax) gives you $4264 a week for the room. Using your numbers above, again the break even is 9 years, after which point you are saving some $3000 a year.

Are they still selling this as a break-even proposition in 5 years though? That's how they used to sell it. Or selling it as deluxe accomadations at moderate pricing. I don't feel like doing it, but the break even versus staying at a moderate has to be approaching 25 years. (I know my calcs on buying AKV at $74 a point had me breaking even versus moderate stays in about 10 years, so just ratioing 160/74 has 22 years to break even on that prospect.)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The common mistake people make is in thinking of DVC as an investment, rather than what it really is, which is a lock-in at today's prices (MF increases notwithstanding) for years' worth of vacations, often times in nicer/larger accommodations.

I actually agree...

But the more escalation of price and point requirements...the closer it gets to rack pricing.

So you are not "locking in at today's pricing" if the values are constantly being tweaked arbitrarily...the escalation has not been based on inflation or cost of service... Not really even supply and demand...

More like just throwing it out there and pushing the limits to see what will stick

 

[Face Like Fizz]

Are they still selling this as a break-even proposition in 5 years though? That's how they used to sell it.

Last year when we bought VGF direct the guide worked on the assumption we would break even after seven trips. When I calculated it later myself I got it to be around 7-8 trips.

 

[Goofy DVC]

Time to chime in!
As you can see, I don't post that much as I find what I may say has already been said by others, usually in a better way, may I add.
That being said, all the discussion about buy-in cost and break even I would simply share not a prediction but some fact.
1.) When BLT opened I read countless post of how you'll struggle getting a room there due to its location and all the people waiting to buy on the monorail. When that did not materialize the response was that's because inventory has been declared but not bought yet. As soon as it sells out, then you will struggle to get in. I feel these arguments were for some, not all, a way to justify the purchase. My experience, we've not had a problem getting into BLT at 7 months. As a matter of fact, we will be there this July 4th and when we booked had the option of Theme Park view or Lake View. We've stayed at BLT now on 3 separate occasions and even booked a GV at 7 months.
2.) Then VGF opened and the thought was points are so expensive because the resort is small, it the flagship resort and you won't get in at 7 months unless you own there. For us, not true. We will be enjoying VGF once again this winter. Booked at 7 months with both standard and lake view available.
Now time for full disclosure:
1.) We've usually book a 1 BR
2.) We never have tried to book at these resorts from Oct 1 thru Dec 31.
3.) We always book right at 7 months.
4.) We use our BCV points for Food & Wine

Now how does this relate to the thread of point cost and charts. The point chart is the point chart. It is expensive.I believe that if you want to stay at PVB on a somewhat regular basis and not pay the high price, you won't have to own their. I think your "break even point" can be greatly reduced via purchasing and using resale points.
Now I'm sure many will disagree but I think that at the least, you have to say that the facts support the ability to book and stay at these resorts most of the year in a 1BR. My opinion is that the Poly will be no different even though it is mostly Studios. I guess like BLT and VGF we'll find out soon enough.

 

[skier_pete]

Goofy DVC - My observations on BLT are in line with you - for most of the year it is quite easy to get into BLT without owning there, both Lake and MK view - and my observations are in regard to a studio. (Standard is quite difficult unless you own there.)

VGF - I haven't been watching 1-bedrooms, but I can tell you what you are saying is NOT at all true for the studios at VGF. Based on my observations, other than a few select weeks of the year, it is quite hard to get more than 1 or 2 days in a studio at VGF.

I would also agree with you in general getting into 1-bedrooms almost everywhere is pretty easy even at 11-months with a few exceptions. (The marathon weekends, early December.)

Another good point about resale versus direct buy - If you have the money for a direct buy purchase but only enough for a studio, perhaps it would be smarter to spend the same amount of money and buying resale get enough points for a 1-bedroom. (Of course the annual maintenance fees might be more.)

Think about it:
160 points at the Poly x $160 each = $25,600 , $968 in dues per year.
300 points at SSR x $77 each = $23,100, $1545 in dues per year.

 

[Goofy DVC]

Goofy DVC - My observations on BLT are in line with you - for most of the year it is quite easy to get into BLT without owning there, both Lake and MK view - and my observations are in regard to a studio. (Standard is quite difficult unless you own there.)

VGF - I haven't been watching 1-bedrooms, but I can tell you what you are saying is NOT at all true for the studios at VGF. Based on my observations, other than a few select weeks of the year, it is quite hard to get more than 1 or 2 days in a studio at VGF.

I would also agree with you in general getting into 1-bedrooms almost everywhere is pretty easy even at 11-months with a few exceptions. (The marathon weekends, early December.)

Another good point about resale versus direct buy - If you have the money for a direct buy purchase but only enough for a studio, perhaps it would be smarter to spend the same amount of money and buying resale get enough points for a 1-bedroom. (Of course the annual maintenance fees might be more.)
Think about it:
160 points at the Poly x $160 each = $25,600 , $968 in dues per year.
300 points at SSR x $77 each = $23,100, $1545 in dues per year.[/QUOTE]

Excellent point about being able to buy more points resale!
I also do concede that because our accommodation of choice is a 1 BR it plays to our advantage as it appears to be the least favorite among most DVCers. This winter will be our 2cd trip to VGF and both have been a 1 BR, last year lake view, this year standard view.