PVB at 7 month

[nfouey]

Hi All,
Just returned yesterday from a 8 night trip around the monorail resorts/DVCs to see which we liked the best and hopefully steer us towards a buying direction. We have previously stayed at SSR, AKV, and YC, so we feel like we had a good idea of other areas/DVCs. (I know YC is not DVC, but gives us a good feel for Epcot resorts). So after our research we of course fell in love with PVB and feel like the studios would work well for our family for a long time. Then of course if we were ever to need a 1 or 2 bedroom because we were bringing aunts/uncles or grandparents we would rent elsewhere (AKV perhaps).

Sooooo...

Given that we (family of 4) would mainly want to travel at marathon weekend and stay at PVB, it would make most sense to buy at PVB common sense would say?

Or does it make more sense to buy at AKV or SSR and hope to get a room at the 7 month mark.

I know full well the actual weekend of the marathon will not be obtainable at the 7 month mark but I'm more than willing to do a split stay between my home resort (prefer AKV) and PVB as we typically stay a week past the marathon.

Are folks still seeing good luck at the 7 month mark at PVB? Do we think that all goes away once they sell out?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts. Of course I know a lot of this is speculation, just looking to get fellow DVCers thoughts.

 

[MrInfinity]

I say if you prefer to stay at PVB, then buy PVB. Done deal, nothing further to consider. This is a long-term ownership, so to buy into AKV but want to be on the Monorail will forever leave you having to wait till 7 mo to finalize your trips. You could book at AKV at 11 mo, but then it's a waiting game. I just wouldn't want to play that game for the next 40 years. Wondering every single year what will be available.

Nobody can say if PVB will dry up after it sells out, but presumably yes, it will get a little harder to book.

If AKV doesn't make you say-- "yeah-- I want HERE to be my home away from home for the next 40 years" then don't buy there. As an aside, tho PVB costs more, you've got 25% more life left in the contract.

Think about it this way... Every time you check in to AKV, you'll be thinking that you're there because you couldn't get what you really wanted for those days. If you aren't genuinely interested in the animals aspect of the AK, I wouldn't buy there just for the cheap studios. Similarly w SSR -- It's great if you like Moderate resorts that are walking distance to Disney Springs. But if you'd rather be in a Deluxe by the Magic Kingdom, that will not satisfy the same desire.

 

[DougEMG]

I think booking at the 7 month mark is getting harder and harder and if I was looking to buy now, had a particular resort I had a preference for and could afford it I would buy my preferred resort and not risk waiting till 7 months to get what I wanted.

Right now I'm at the 7 month mark trying to string together a 2 week trip at BCV, have the first 4 days and keeping my fingers crossed I get the rest of them.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Marathon weekend is best as an 11-month booking.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Marathon weekend might be a good time to get a fixed week at PVB. Then you are set and don't have to worry about it even at 11 months.

 

[ziravan]

Marathon weekend might be a good time to get a fixed week at PVB. Then you are set and don't have to worry about it even at 11 months.

I bought a fixed week for Food and Wine Marathon for just this reason.

It's also Jersey Week overlap and straddles MNSSHP and MVMCP.

And Veterans Day.

 

[ziravan]

Hi All,
Just returned yesterday from a 8 night trip around the monorail resorts/DVCs to see which we liked the best and hopefully steer us towards a buying direction. We have previously stayed at SSR, AKV, and YC, so we feel like we had a good idea of other areas/DVCs. (I know YC is not DVC, but gives us a good feel for Epcot resorts). So after our research we of course fell in love with PVB and feel like the studios would work well for our family for a long time. Then of course if we were ever to need a 1 or 2 bedroom because we were bringing aunts/uncles or grandparents we would rent elsewhere (AKV perhaps).

Sooooo...

Given that we (family of 4) would mainly want to travel at marathon weekend and stay at PVB, it would make most sense to buy at PVB common sense would say?

Or does it make more sense to buy at AKV or SSR and hope to get a room at the 7 month mark.

I know full well the actual weekend of the marathon will not be obtainable at the 7 month mark but I'm more than willing to do a split stay between my home resort (prefer AKV) and PVB as we typically stay a week past the marathon.

Are folks still seeing good luck at the 7 month mark at PVB? Do we think that all goes away once they sell out?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts. Of course I know a lot of this is speculation, just looking to get fellow DVCers thoughts.

There are 4 million Poly Points, of which, 1 million are Bungalow points.

25% Bungalow points but very few owners buying enough points to routinely stay in Bungalows.

And no other option but studios.

Studios at Poly once sold out will essentially be 25% oversold at the 11 month window.

That first 25% of Poly owners looking for 1BR elsewhere will translate into Bungalow avail at 7 months - Not studios - once sold out. (Because the remaining 75% of owners booking at 11 months will take the studios leaving nothing left at 7 months BUT Bungalows.)

Poly is somthing like 55% sold and 70% avail at the more moment. There's a mismatch between supply/demand and DVC will always release availability ahead of demand while its selling. Until both demand and ownership equalizes at 100%, true availability patterns won't be known.

 

[ziravan]

My take is that the pressures on Poly booking and the 7 month window specifically can't be well predicted over its 50 yr lifespan.

The changes to booking patterns at OKW (including 7 mo availability elsewhere) have been huge over its lifespan and that's only halfway done.

Certainly, DVC will continue to sell points and those new owners will put more pressure on availability at monorail resorts (and everywhere) at 7 months.

A frequent mantra on the boards and I agree:

Buy where you want to stay.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think it's pretty fair to say that marathon weekend at a monorail resort at 7 months, even if it is open at 7 months will be a matter of being on early, booking quickly, having the best luck connecting to the server, and possibly being lucky with waitlist.

Marathon weekend is predictably popular. It's also not likely to change in dates for quite some time. There is a fairly restricted season for when runDisney events can be run in Orlando. While a lot of people seem to have been surprised by the weather for this year (the cold, not the cx of the half for lightning), the temperatures were very typical of what people run in for Chicago, Boston, or some of the minors (Minneapolis in October). Warmer weather tends more to triathlons, and Disney is not going to offer something with an open water swim for possibly obvious reasons. (Does anyone do a freshwater tri in Florida? It seems unlikely to me, and possibly unwise.)

 

[icydog]

When are the marathons you mentioned?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

When are the marathons you mentioned?

rundisney.com

 

[a742246]

I would purchase at the PVD for two reasons: one you like it, two the value at the PVB will probably hold up better than AKL, SSR resorts, so while it may cost more now in 20 years if you decide to sell, the value should still be greater than the other resorts. So why not get what you want now......

 

[drusba]

If your intent is to get Poly studios often for marathon weekend, you should definitely buy there. For marathon weekend, January 2017 (Thurs, Fri, and Sat night), Poly was gone before 7 months out, both all studios and bungalows.

Poly is still being sold so patterns are not fully developed. However, what appears to be developing is that during DVC's low to moderate season at WDW, which runs from the Monday after marathon weekend in Jan to late Sep, Poly is easy to get at 7 months out and often even 6 months out for studios. The sheer number of studios, 360, keeps it open during that long off-season.

However, Poly is getting difficult at 7 months out for the high demand season that runs from late Sep to marathon weekend in January, For that time in 2016 and early 2017, Poly studios filled before 7 months out for days during some extremely high demand times (Wine & Dine race weekend in November, few days around Thanksgiving, much of the first week of Dec,. some days during Christmas week, and marathon weekend in Jan), and at many other times during that quarter, it filled very fast once the 7 month window opened online at 8 a.m., with the result that getting a studio required one's computer to be faster than someone else's in communicating with Disney's at 8 a.m.

I suspect the the low to moderate season will continue with Poly being usually open at 7 months out once Poly sells out, but I believe it will become even harder to get studios at 7 months out during the high demand quarter. So if your heart is set on usually getting Poly studios during the high demand season, you should buy there. Also, it could develop issues at 7 months out during the low to moderate season for two weekends: The Princess half marathon weekend in February and the Star Wars Dark Side race weekend in April, the two highest DVC demand times between mid-Jan and late Sep. And thus, if you intend to do race weekends often, buy Poly to get the 11 month reservation window.

 

[gharter]

There are many opinions. I am in the camp of buy where you want to stay (that was our approach to both contracts). You may be able to book where you would like to stay at 7 months. However, if you are going at a popular time, that can be very difficult. Booking at 11 months seems to be pretty easy( at least for now).

 

[MrInfinity]

There are 4 million Poly Points, of which, 1 million are Bungalow points.

25% Bungalow points but very few owners buying enough points to routinely stay in Bungalows.

And no other option but studios.

Studios at Poly once sold out will essentially be 25% oversold at the 11 month window.

That first 25% of Poly owners looking for 1BR elsewhere will translate into Bungalow avail at 7 months - Not studios - once sold out. (Because the remaining 75% of owners booking at 11 months will take the studios leaving nothing left at 7 months BUT Bungalows.)

Poly is somthing like 55% sold and 70% avail at the more moment. There's a mismatch between supply/demand and DVC will always release availability ahead of demand while its selling. Until both demand and ownership equalizes at 100%, true availability patterns won't be known.

This is fine if you assume everyone wants the same things as you. You would not stay in a Bungalow, therefore very few owners would stay in a Bungalow... I think you're ignoring a lot of people out there who make a lot of money and can afford expensive things. And people with a lot of money have more vacation time, take more trips, buy more timeshares, and stay in more expensive places. Thus, although a middle-income family might travel to WDW once in 2 or 3 years and want a studio, a wealthy family would travel more often, stay in a bungalow, and be more likely to buy a luxury item like a timeshare in the first place.

There are also 360 studios to 20 bungalows. So only 4% of the rooms. (which makes up 25% of the points, sure, but it's still just 4% of the rooms). One wealthy family books a bungalow and 18 bargain hunters have to book a studio just to maintain the balance.

The studio rooms will fill up at 7 mo, but also, the bungalows will fill up at 7 mo because you'll have people who own cheaper points at SSR or BLT and can get a bungalow for relatively cheap given their points cost less. We'll be one of those people always looking to book bungalow at 7 mo with our "bargain" points. I am actually hoping you're right that we'll always have good results doing this but I suspect the demand will be a little more balanced than you do.

I'll add that every person I know in real life who owns at the Poly owns there to stay in bungalows. It doesn't make sense to assert that bargain-hunter / studio-seekers would be buying the most expensive $170 points in the first place. People buying Poly are people who are at a point in life where they can afford some cool stuff.

 

[McCrae]

I would have a think again about the Poly and if a studio really will would work for your family longer term. Staying in a studio with 2 teenagers is very different to staying with a couple of young kids. Having access to a 1 or 2 bedroom could make a big difference to your holiday. If you haven't tried a 1 bedroom it might be worthwhile staying in one before you make your final decision.

 

[ziravan]

This is fine if you assume everyone wants the same things as you. You would not stay in a Bungalow, therefore very few owners would stay in a Bungalow... I think you're ignoring a lot of people out there who make a lot of money and can afford expensive things. And people with a lot of money have more vacation time, take more trips, buy more timeshares, and stay in more expensive places. Thus, although a middle-income family might travel to WDW once in 2 or 3 years and want a studio, a wealthy family would travel more often, stay in a bungalow, and be more likely to buy a luxury item like a timeshare in the first place.

There are also 360 studios to 20 bungalows. So only 4% of the rooms. (which makes up 25% of the points, sure, but it's still just 4% of the rooms). One wealthy family books a bungalow and 18 bargain hunters have to book a studio just to maintain the balance.

The studio rooms will fill up at 7 mo, but also, the bungalows will fill up at 7 mo because you'll have people who own cheaper points at SSR or BLT and can get a bungalow for relatively cheap given their points cost less. We'll be one of those people always looking to book bungalow at 7 mo with our "bargain" points. I am actually hoping you're right that we'll always have good results doing this but I suspect the demand will be more balanced than you do.

I'll add that every person I know in real life who owns at the Poly owns there to stay in bungalows. It doesn't make sense to assert that bargain-hunter / studio-seekers would be buying the most expensive $170 points in the first place. People buying Poly are people who are at a point in life where they can afford some cool stuff.

5% of rooms, 25% of points.

And I'm not offering a personal critique on Bungalows. Realistically, to do more than sample the bungalows for a night or two will require buying 500 points or more. VERY FEW Poly owners are buying that many points.

It's not that I wouldn't personally stay there. HARDLY ANYBODY will book them in the 11 month window because hardly anybody will have the points to do so.

And. I think DVC is perfectly fine with that. A few Poly owners will book in 11 month window, even if just to sample them. Many DVC members will book at 7 months either to sample, or far more members at 7 months have the 1000 points necessary to book a week there. And DVC will be happy to sell the balance as CRO. They will stay full. They will NOT stay full of Poly owners booking in 11 month window.

And that portends greatly on Poly studio availability in the 11 month window. 25% of owners are not buying for bungalows. That is evident by the numbers of points being bought.

As a result, once sold, there will be more owners seeking to stay at studios in 11 month window than studios available.

My guess is that Marathons, Easter and Fall Frenzy will require Poly ownership to book Poly Studios.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I have heard a lot of people buying into Poly at 50 or 75 points. I have a hard time believing they'll use those contracts to book, what, one night in a bungalow, every two years?

I think there are contracts out there aimed at bungalows, certainly. However, when you consider that enough points are available for sale to book a bungalow every night, 365 nights/year....

There are enough points in the Poly system to book the bungalows every night. But the contract sizes and ownership are such that I doubt it happens using only home resort points, ever. VGF showed us people buying studio-class contracts well in excess of studio availability. PVB will show less of that hurt at 11 months due to the greater inventory of studios, but there may come weeks that PVB is consistently out of studios in home resort booking. Right now, that's 1-3 weeks/year. As it sells, it will be more.

 

[MrInfinity]

And I'm not offering a personal critique on Bungalows. Realistically, to do more than sample the bungalows for a night or two will require buying 500 points or more. VERY FEW Poly owners are buying that many points.
It's not that I wouldn't personally stay there. HARDLY ANYBODY will book them in the 11 month window because hardly anybody will have the points to do so.

Well the Poly owners I know bought into Poly intending bungalows. They are well off. I know way more people in a more common budget lifestyle, but none of them bought Poly DVC.

And. I think DVC is perfectly fine with that. A few Poly owners will book in 11 month window, even if just to sample them. Many DVC members will book at 7 months either to sample, or far more members at 7 months have the 1000 points necessary to book a week there. And DVC will be happy to sell the balance as CRO. They will stay full. They will NOT stay full of Poly owners booking in 11 month window.

Sure. That's fine. But you're still looking only at low to middle incomes and asserting that nobody can afford more than a "sampling". If you stop considering only people in common income brackets and think about all the VPs, CEOs, CFOs, doctors, lawyers, athletes and people with a million dollars in the bank or who earn $200k/yr or more. These people are absolutely buying Poly -- in big chunks, and direct, because it's awesome, and the bungalow is the coolest room on all of Disney property. Really, chunking out the $75,000 to get a week in a bungalow every other year (500 points @ $170, spending 993 for a week in dream season) is less costly to these people than pulling $17,000 out of my budget to get 160 pts at BLT is to me.

And that portends greatly on Poly studio availability in the 11 month window. 25% of owners are not buying for bungalows. That is evident by the numbers of points being bought.

As a result, once sold, there will be more owners seeking to stay at studios in 11 month window than studios available.

My guess is that Marathons, Easter and Fall Frenzy will require Poly ownership to book Poly Studios.

That's not really going on any limb to make that guess. That's a normal thing at all DVC resorts and the same will happen at Poly. It costs 20%-40% cheaper to go at these times, so they fill up fast. That has nothing to do w bungalows diverting people to studios and is just regular fall DVC dynamics.

Think of it this way.

There are only 20 of these rooms on all of Disney property. They're akin to the BLT suites at the top of the world. Extremely rare. So based on your logic, you'd say that a BLT suite would never sell out because it's just too expensive and people would sooner get studios (because you're only considering people that stay in studios, and not people who can afford the suites). But let's look at 7-11 mo availability: Checking dates in Oct, right now, I can get a studio for a week... but every week the 3B suites are not available.

As of right now, I can get a Studio in BLT for any week except a handful of days in Sep, Oct, Nov.
For a suite, TPV is almost unavailable, and LV has scattered weeks available.

Suites are clearly selling out faster than studios because the suites are so rare, the studios are so plentiful, and there are lots of rich people out there who can afford BLT points and bought them, and booked these rooms because 7-monthers haven't even kicked in yet.

Now let's look inside of 7 months. So May-Jun-Jul of this year. The availability for Suites and Studios are almost an exact match on the charts. Mostly taken in May-Jun, and mostly available for Jul yet.

This suggests that the Suites and Studios are filling at the same rate. More people are booking studios cuz there's hundreds of them, but with only 14 suites, there's limited supply.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well the Poly owners I know bought into Poly intending bungalows. They are well off. I know way more people in a more common budget lifestyle, but none of them bought Poly DVC.

There are a couple of people tracking PVB contracts sold which is where I think the appearance - maybe fact - that more are buying for studios than Bungalows is coming from. Yes, there are some obviously large contacts and a few Bungalow fixed weeks but it is not a 25% rate.

I think that DVC could essentially offset the underselling of the bungalows by sending a higher percentage over to CRO. It's a unique product that they may want to have available for cash reservations and if they rented out to pay for trades that would really be all that matters.