Predicting crowd levels based off of ADR availability?

jjsdad

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 10, 2010
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664
Ok just wondering if any experts can actually weigh in on this subject here. I've been reading quite a few threads lately with people proclaiming how they got a certain reservation so they think the parks will be wide open during their visit. Here is my question regarding this and I'll use my situation as an example:

Like a lot of people I am going to head down to DW for the last week in Aug which happens to be right around the time free dining starts up again AND summer break ends for the south. ADR's are pretty much impossible to get, I was literally logging in the night of the day they were avail for me and having trouble getting what I wanted. Ohana was near impossible but we got something that worked, but still I have a lot of 7:15 dinners because the 6's were just gone. Now i'm chalking this up to the fact that it's the first week of free dining post busy season and thinking the parks aren't going to be THAT crowded, maybe 4-7 range throughout the week. I'm guessing the restaurants will be at 10 levels (just made up a crowd level system for the restaurants) because everyone will be doing the same thing as us, free dining.

SO, I guess my question here is, is judging adr availability really a good way to predict crowd levels? Just how many people can be eating at once throughout DW? What % of people eat at a restaurant vs % who attend the overall parks on that day? Thoughts on the topic?
 
Ok just wondering if any experts can actually weigh in on this subject here. I've been reading quite a few threads lately with people proclaiming how they got a certain reservation so they think the parks will be wide open during their visit. Here is my question regarding this and I'll use my situation as an example:

Like a lot of people I am going to head down to DW for the last week in Aug which happens to be right around the time free dining starts up again AND summer break ends for the south. ADR's are pretty much impossible to get, I was literally logging in the night of the day they were avail for me and having trouble getting what I wanted. Ohana was near impossible but we got something that worked, but still I have a lot of 7:15 dinners because the 6's were just gone. Now i'm chalking this up to the fact that it's the first week of free dining post busy season and thinking the parks aren't going to be THAT crowded, maybe 4-7 range throughout the week. I'm guessing the restaurants will be at 10 levels (just made up a crowd level system for the restaurants) because everyone will be doing the same thing as us, free dining.

SO, I guess my question here is, is judging adr availability really a good way to predict crowd levels? Just how many people can be eating at once throughout DW? What % of people eat at a restaurant vs % who attend the overall parks on that day? Thoughts on the topic?

Dining availability and crowd levels do not go hand in hand. In fact, late August into early Sept. is one of the slowest times in WDW. Just because the restaurants fill up doesn't mean the parks do. And, if they do offer free dining you can bet many restaurants will fill up. I'm sure when people book their free dining trips they are advised to make ADRs for all of their sit-down/TS meals.

Because of the DDP and free dining, etc., it has been more difficult to get ADRs at the more popular restaurants. O'hanas always seems to be overbooked even when you see empty tables. The waits have been crazy there lately, I won't even bother as I don't think it's worth it. Once upon a time it was really good, I find too much inconsistency now. I try to lean towards the less frequented (but good) restaurants these days.:thumbsup2

But, don't let the restaurants' lack of availability lead you to believe that the parks are going to be packed. We were there in early Feb. in which the crowds were fairly minimal but ADRs at the most popular places were tough to get months before. I personally think there is less wait staff than there used to be or hourly cuts. At the more popular restaurants where we had to wait 30 min. for a table even with an ADR (ie. CP for dinner) we noticed LOTS of empty tables. That's indication of staff cuts as far as I see.;)
 
I don't think restaurant bookings have a lot to do with the kinds of crowds that you will find in the parks. The capacity of the parks is much greater than the capacity of the restaurants. Then you have popular parks like MK - which only has five TS restaurants. Obviously there is a lot less capacity there than in the park itself. They could fill the restaurants up (especially if you throw in something like free dining that encourages more guests than usual to book restaurants) even if the park is uncrowded.

6 pm is prime mealtime, is very popular and is always going to book up first.
 
I also don't think you can base crowd levels off of ADR availability for a few reasons. One .. I think they hold some of the reservations back at the more popular places. I booked our trip last minute and got some great ADR's in February. I am almost certain I grabbed someone elses cancellations or just released ressies for Ohana and Chef Mickeys.. they were prime time dinner spots at 3 weeks out.

Two.. I have seen threads in the last few weeks saying it must not be so bad because there were restaurants available.. only to see many more threads that the parks are PACKED. Touring Plans has these days at 10's.. so obviously reservation availibility didn't predict these crowds.

Three. There are just too many variables. Less room at restaurants vs. park capacity, offsite dining options, free dining etc.

Now, as for the last week of August... This is free dining time. We went this exact week last year and plan to go this year. Reservations were hard to come by and popular places were booked solid...but the crowd levels were low. Low enough to bring us back the same time this year. I waited longer to be seated at 50's Prime Time than I did for any ride that week:rotfl:

I wouldn't worry about your week too much.. it won't be deserted but it won't be very crowded.
 

We are going the last week of August and I have been able to get my adr's no problem, I have even been able to change things and still get good times and I have a group of 7. the only one was Cape May I had to spilt our party.
 


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