Pre RD BOG Res, will it really be 40 min to get on first ride?

[Alexiss207]

So we are going on a predicted CL 7 day to MK. We have an 8:15 BOG breakfast, and it is not a EMH day. (can I just say I have been planning for about 2 months now, and I have learned soooo many acronyms!)
I got the Touringplan.com membership, and have been putting together my touring plans. It says there will be a predicted 40 min wait at SDMT, after breakfast (which should let out pre RD) What gives, is that true? Should I burn a FP+ on our first ride of the day, if we will be in line before RD? Also we are doing PPF directly after, and it says predicted 50 min wait.... that seems crazy!!
Any recommendations are appreciated.
TIA

 

[AngiTN]

While there won't be a line if you got out there before the rope drop crowd if you got there 5 min after rope drop, yes, there could very well be a 40+ min wait build that fast.
It's imperative you are done, outside and ready to get in line as soon as they allow it.

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

We did a PPO (8:05) ADR last May (2015) at CRT. Idk what the predicted crowd levels were that day. We went straight to Peter Pan after a somewhat speedy breakfast, and when we got in line there was I think about a 20 minute wait. Shortly after we entered the line, the wait time went up to something like 45 minutes. It all happened very quickly. (This was also before BOG PPO breakfast, so I'd imagine there are only more people in the parks before RD now.)

 

[srauseo]

While there won't be a line if you got out there before the rope drop crowd if you got there 5 min after rope drop, yes, there could very well be a 40+ min wait build that fast.
It's imperative you are done, outside and ready to get in line as soon as they allow it.

This. I did a 8:05 breakfast at BOG this February. We finished breakfast, made a quick pit stop, and were outside in line with the CM by 8:45. He walked us over to the ride when they were ready and we rode twice with no wait before the rope drop crowd arrived. YMMV - but that seems to be how it works most of the time.

 

[TeresaWen]

We walked passed sdmt at 9:05 the other morning and the wait was already 45 minutes

 

[knicksak2]

it seems touring plans doesnt take into account the ppo breakfasts getting you on the rides as one of the first riders so they act as if you walked there normally