Potential buyer, math driving me crazy!

[beldred]

So, every 2 or 3 years we talk about DVC. We always find a way to talk ourselves out of it. Well this time my hubby is super serious and really wants to do it. (We rented DVC at BLT and BC in October and are apparently now ruined for our usual value/moderate stays, lol.) So I've been doing research and math for days. The problem is, the math is quite frankly, ****ty. Hoping for some advice.
So looking at the most cost efficient resorts to buy into,
and the ones with the best point charts,
versus the places we WANT to stay (hubby insists on something on monorail or skyliner),
versus needing to spend 20k or less if we want to avoid financing (which I do).
It basically comes out with nothing.

All the places that are long term best buyins have the highest point charts - Poly, GF, RIV (and it's restr. to boot) BLT is a decent middle ground I guess but you have to go so high right now because of all the ROFR buy backs I'm not sure if my math can be trusted. So we'd have to buy in more points.
The places with the good point charts seem pretty dumb to buy into, since you get less than 20 years on it (though we really love BCV and BW since Epcot is our favorite park). So they don't make long term sense.

Our "specs": We usually travel late October - March (right now we go about every 15-18 months, alternately fall one year then winter/early spring. for example we went in Jan. 2020 then Oct. 2021). It's me, hubby, and college age son (who doesn't date, doesn't seem to be planning for marriage and a family so not considering long term effects there). So we are happy with studio's but like 1br's too. Also likely to want to take our niece, nephew and their spouses who we are very close to if possible even if it means going less so that'd need a 2 br. (we'd be 7, at least until someone has a kid.)

I know nobody else can make the decision for us, but advice would be greatly appreciated.
Do you have suggestions on the best choice for us?
Should we scrap buying and hope that we can rent DVC @$20pp for perpetuity?
I'm so frustrated and I just don't see how to decide.
Appreciate any commentary.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Get the phone app "DVC Calculator" to run "what-ifs". That's really useful to figure out how many points you need for each resort.
We are a family of 5 and stay in 1BRs. 1brs tend to be less popular and more available so switching at 7 months usually works out if you really want to stay at BWV (BCV is always a tough get - buy there if that's important to you but agree that it's not worth it). We didn't go in 2022 so will splurge on a 2br in 2023. Banking and borrowing never seems to go quite how you expect and the charts do change slightly from year to year. Buy enough points to figure for that.

 

[Nursemanit]

So you have Poly / GF / RR as BLT direct is way high and it is falsely high on resale due to ROFR.

The point charts are bad at all the Skyliner / monorail resorts there is not much difference between the 3

Based on your age - Riveria is the bet as you are all in that Epcot / HS age group and don't expect toddlers soon.

Edit - Your gonna need 28k - nothing but resale at a non-Skyliner / monorail for 20 k

 

[Sandisw]

Such great points which makes the decision even harder!

We love RIV and it’s our top resort with VGF being second favorite so we are resolved we will have high point charts, because that is where want to stay.

I would have a tough time buying a a 2042 resort given 19 years left. And, if DVD continues with resale restrictions which is expected, those resorts are most likely coming back as new resorts with high point charts and restricted from resale bought today.

October until mid January is a very busy DVC time so you do want a home resort that you will enjoy because trading into other resorts, especially for studios will be tough…the other times will be easier than Fall.

Going resale obviously leaves you out of RIV and future resorts, which may include VDH and the new Poly tower...no official announcement yet on whether those will be restricted.

Given the current incentives, you can get RIV direct for a nice discount and not far off some of the near park resorts resale.

 

[DL1WDW2]

You have researched every aspect and I just want to mention one more thing because in all honesty you should continue to rent .
But …
It is one of those life decisions that we want to get just right .
The good news is you probably won’t lose money with choosing DVC for vacations .
And don’t forget to factor the unknowns that we can not control such as the maintenance and the point chart increases. Those are really important factors.

Sorry— I edited my response after doing a search for myself… looks like RR might have a better point chart but no availability!
Keep us updated Hopefully with your good news membership puzzle completed.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

Thank you for sharing all of your criteria and considerations as you research a purchase in DVC. I agree with many of the replies that note that it could be quite difficult to find a contract that that balances all of your requirements AND also is either on the monorail loop, or the skyliner.

I wonder if you should consider renting at CCV in a 1 bedroom to see if you like it? While it is not a monorail resort, it is a serene location, and it does benefit from a good point chart in comparison to many of the resorts you have listed. A one bedroom in mid-October would cost just over 250 points for a week, and you could potentially purchase a resale contract with 125 points or so with a good use year in your budget range. CCV expires in 2068. If you choose to stay for a week you could go every other year in a one bedroom and be quite comfortable. One downside of this resort is the relatively high competition for studio rooms. It certainly is not on the monorail, but it is a lovely Magic Kingdom resort, and it could check some of the other boxes that you are considering.

 

[MICKIMINI]

1996 DVC veteran. Our son was 8 when we bought OKW. We had wonderful family trips with grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins and friends until high school. It was a decade of empty nester trips when we got hooked on F & W. (Edit our son was busy with high school, college and grad school!) We resumed our family trips when he married a few years ago and now we're all AP holders and get together at WDW twice a year. We gift them additional trips when we have points (Aulani this year and Poly next). Big changes!

We now use more than ever. We own five resorts (around 500 points) and thankfully are down to one UY (OCT).

I guess my point is, DVC can offer wonderful flexibility. You'll have to decide if direct is worth it for your family. Resale IMO is great for anyone who wants to stay at WDW and knows when they want to go and what size accommodations they need. There is no reason to buy it all in one chunk. If your budget is 20K, start with a small resale for the resort you really want. Poly sounds like a great choice for your needs. We generally have good luck booking at 7 months for F & W but YMMV but we enjoy all the resorts and like to change it up.

Keep reading disboards and check out the ROFR thread. You will find more experience here then just about anywhere else. Take your time and good luck!

 

[RamblinWreck]

If your husband insists on skyliner or monorail, and you want to maximize your budget, BLT is the clear winner IMO.

Plenty of time on the contract, lower prices, and much lower point chart (although this can kind of depend on which type of rooms you book, and when).


But if you’ve always been value/moderate people before, it seems like he may be able to be persuaded into something else. Maybe OKW-Extended would fit your needs?

 

[princesscinderella]

BLT is also my vote because you are all adults and they have the 2 bathrooms in the one bedroom and 3 in a 2 bedroom. If you have time on your side keep bidding low and one will sneak past ROFR eventually.

 

[TCRAIG]

I also recommend BLT resale - Std rooms are wonderful point savers, expiration date of 2060, extra bathroom in larger units, easy access to all the other monorail resorts for dining and such…

 

[beldred]

You have researched every aspect and I just want to mention one more thing because in all honesty you should continue to rent .

Soj you feel like if you were me in this situation, you'd simply keep on renting and not try to buy in?

Like, we want to be owners... but I'm not sure if it makes sense.
I screwed up big time by not signing the contract in 2009. I had it in front of me, pen in hand, and chickened out.

 

[beldred]

One additional followup...

If we bought a low point contract now (say 50 or 100 points, to stay all cash), once we are owners are there discounts offered for direct addins?
I've been reading a LOT of thread in these DVC boards and seem to recall a post someone mentioned that they bought BLT at 182 direct from Disney by negotiating with their "guide". Is that something that can happen to anyone? Or something that used to go on that doesn't anymore?

Thanks to everyone for the comments so far. BLT was my original choice when we started researching a few days ago. Reading here in the ROFR thread is what made me start checking the math on all the resorts since it seems BLT is having a bad time in resale right now. Of course, we don't have to rush, but our usual schedule for another trip would be this coming winter so buying now should get us closed in time instead of tossing another few grand into renting in December/January and THEN deciding to buy.

 

[Sandisw]

One additional followup...

If we bought a low point contract now (say 50 or 100 points, to stay all cash), once we are owners are there discounts offered for direct addins?
I've been reading a LOT of thread in these DVC boards and seem to recall a post someone mentioned that they bought BLT at 182 direct from Disney by negotiating with their "guide". Is that something that can happen to anyone? Or something that used to go on that doesn't anymore?

Thanks to everyone for the comments so far. BLT was my original choice when we started researching a few days ago. Reading here in the ROFR thread is what made me start checking the math on all the resorts since it seems BLT is having a bad time in resale right now. Of course, we don't have to rush, but our usual schedule for another trip would be this coming winter so buying now should get us closed in time instead of tossing another few grand into renting in December/January and THEN deciding to buy.

Once you are an owner, you can add on direct and qualify for members pricing when they offer it.

There is no negotiating with DVC. The resorts that are in active sales will typically have promotions and the more points you buy, the better the price.

Those resorts are RIV, VGF, and AUL and have the best promotions. I think they start at 100 points for current members. New members of course have to buy 150 and up.

Sold out resorts sometimes have them. They are offering some small discounts on OKW, Poly, and SSR but I think those are also for at least 100.

Beginning of the year, they did offer a great promotion on BLT which did bring the price down quite a bit.

One thing you can negotiate though is having your payments spread out up to 90 days and if you use a Disney Visa you get 6 months 0%.

When I added on VGF in March, I had them charge me my down payment, then partial April 1st, May 1st abs finish June 1st. I do t have to get it paid all off until December.

 

[beldred]

Once you are an owner, you can add on direct and qualify for members pricing when they offer it.

There is no negotiating with DVC. The resorts that are in active sales will typically have promotions and the more points you buy, the better the price.

Those resorts are RIV, VGF, and AUL and have the best promotions. I think they start at 100 points for current members. New members of course have to buy 150 and up.

Sold out resorts sometimes have them. They are offering some small discounts on OKW, Poly, and SSR but I think those are also for at least 100.

Beginning of the year, they did offer a great promotion on BLT which did bring the price down quite a bit.

One thing you can negotiate though is having your payments spread out up to 90 days and if you use a Disney Visa you get 6 months 0%.

When I added on VGF in March, I had them charge me my down payment, then partial April 1st, May 1st abs finish June 1st. I do t have to get it paid all off until December.

Ah, perhaps I misunderstood the other post I saw in passing. It was early on in my reading here.

On the breaking up the payments thing... did they charge you a fee to do that? Not that breaking it up over 3 months would let me spend 30k instead of 20k but still an interesting option if we go the small contract resale, small direct addons route...

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I would consider just continuing to rent. I definitely wouldn’t buy direct. If you must buy do a 100 point resale contract at Boardwalk and see how it goes. I would forget taking extended family unless you want to shell out a lot more than 20k.

 

[DVCsloth]

I would probably focus on a resale contract at either BLT or BC/BWV. Just look for a use year that works for you and understand the resale restrictions and expiration dates. Keep an eye out for what they are selling for. Usually, the next few months towards the end of the year some pretty good contracts will start showing up.

 

[RoseGold]

I booked a 2BR BC trip at 7 months using my SSR points. I'm about to do it again in a few weeks. If you are flexible on dates, especially summer or off peak, like Feb or Late April early May, you can do this with any points. But that's going to take 35K in BLT points, which is nowhere near your budget.

You need to decide if you are buying for studios or for 2BRs other people, because these are very different buys, and honestly I have completely different answers. Also depends on if you plan to sell. If you're selling in 10 years, I also have a different answer.

If you want studios, the answer right now is Poly. No ROFR and screaming deals out there because of the Poly2 uncertainty. And, hey, maybe you get lucky and get to book Poly2 also.

Since buy-in is a concern, don't count out SSR. It's the classic sleep around for a reason. There's always a ton of it out there, and there are deals to be had.

I'd be on the Facebook boards too. I'd be willing to buy private as long as I have Mason doing the title work.

I also think RIV resale should be in this discussion in a couple years. It's not exactly a hot ticket, and you might be able to steal it when more of it is on the market. To use these points, you'll need adult-only flexibility, like you have.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Once you are an owner, you can add on direct and qualify for members pricing when they offer it.

There is no negotiating with DVC. The resorts that are in active sales will typically have promotions and the more points you buy, the better the price.

Those resorts are RIV, VGF, and AUL and have the best promotions. I think they start at 100 points for current members. New members of course have to buy 150 and up.

Sold out resorts sometimes have them. They are offering some small discounts on OKW, Poly, and SSR but I think those are also for at least 100.

Beginning of the year, they did offer a great promotion on BLT which did bring the price down quite a bit.

One thing you can negotiate though is having your payments spread out up to 90 days and if you use a Disney Visa you get 6 months 0%.

When I added on VGF in March, I had them charge me my down payment, then partial April 1st, May 1st abs finish June 1st. I do t have to get it paid all off until December.

Once you are an owner, you can buy 50 point direct contracts. Incentives do not kick in until 100 points. Aulani has the best incentives (of course). but RIV is not far behind. But the serious incentives do not kick in until 300 points. I personally wouldn’t by direct for lower than the 300 points and I would break it up into small contracts.

 

[BruinEd03]

Ah, perhaps I misunderstood the other post I saw in passing. It was early on in my reading here.

On the breaking up the payments thing... did they charge you a fee to do that? Not that breaking it up over 3 months would let me spend 30k instead of 20k but still an interesting option if we go the small contract resale, small direct addons route...

Note that breaking up the payments and the 0% interest for 6 months for the Disney Visa is only good for direct purchases through Disney. There’s no fee for breaking up the payments - you just have to negotiate with your salesperson. For Disney Visa, it’s part of their benefits. I would suggest researching it online to get familiar with it. Note that it’s 6 months from the initial charge, not 6 billing cycles.

If breaking it up for 3 months allows you to spend 30k - why don’t you just wait for 2-3 months?

 

[Sandisw]

Note that breaking up the payments and the 0% interest for 6 months for the Disney Visa is only good for direct purchases through Disney. There’s no fee for breaking up the payments - you just have to negotiate with your salesperson. For Disney Visa, it’s part of their benefits. I would suggest researching it online to get familiar with it. Note that it’s 6 months from the initial charge, not 6 billing cycles.

If breaking it up for 3 months allows you to spend 30k - why don’t you just wait for 2-3 months?

The one benefit is to take advantage of the current incentives