Poly Vs. AKV Vs. BLT from strictly a value POV

[MFMont]

I am an owner 300 points at BWV and 520 points at AKV that I am in various states of closing on. BWV is a favorite and we will stay there at least 1 of our trips every year mainly because of its location. From a pure property perspective we absolutely love AK, Poly and Contempo(We have not stayed in BLT yet) above BWV. I really enjoy renting out points to people and also sharing Disney with our DVC points with friends and family. We are absolutely going to pick up some more points during the present market. I could envision us flipping around to all 4 resorts however I still think we would stay at BWV 2 out of every three trips. Is there any case that we could make where a 150 points or so at Poly or BLT would be a better value than AKV or is this just vanity? I am more interested in the math for this question as I know i could stay at any of these properties if I really wanted to. Am I missing something with think AKV is the best value of these resorts right know? Please also note that I will likely significantly pair down our ownership stake in roughly 10 years as we plan to live a little north and west of Disney by then .

 

[Sandisw]

I think resale value at BLT or Poly are more likely to keep value than AKV. To me, given the current market, those MK resorts are bargains, especially BLT with the lower MFs.

 

[intamin]

Poly/BLT will have cheaper dues than AKV, after all it has to upkeep a friggin savanna. I love AKV but that's one of the reasons why I only have a relatively small contract there. Home resort priority of the 3 you listed matters most at BLT imo just because those standard view rooms do not make it to the 7 month window. Theme park view can also be hard to get especially during holidays without home resort priority. I absolutely would consider BLT/poly. The proximity of BLT to MK is extremely nice, but I think I'm a bigger fan of poly just based on theming but both are likely to hold their value over time. I'm waiting to see if the new tower for poly ends up being part of the same association so if that's something you care about I'd wait for that announcement.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

the dues on AKV make it a worse deal long term. Poly also has several extra years which may or may not matter for resale by 2033. I’d want to own one of the MK resorts and use the points to stay at AKV if I was in your shoes. But I wouldn’t call it a deal breaker. If you want to be sure you’re staying at Jambo (vs Kidani) or in a GV I’d suggest owning at AKV is a better option.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

If you're planning on selling these potential contracts in 10 years, why not just rent the extra points you need now but won't need in 10 years? You can invest the contract price and use returns to offset rental price. High yield savings accounts are approaching 5% return with no risk.

Using poly as an example, every 100 points of a contract costs 15k up front. 15k in a HYSA would provide $750 a year to discount a rental. Rental cost per 100 points is roughly $2000. So each year your out of pocket cost would be $1250 after accounting for savings income. MF each year would be $800 if you owned so now you're looking at a true cost to rent of $450/100 points.

The largest portion of the cost savings of DVC is mostly achieved many years after initial purchase when inflation has compounded for a few decades. Over 10 years, the savings of owning DVC will barely exceed closing costs and fees associated with buying and selling the contract.

 

[MFMont]

If you're planning on selling these potential contracts in 10 years, why not just rent the extra points you need now but won't need in 10 years? You can invest the contract price and use returns to offset rental price. High yield savings accounts are approaching 5% return with no risk.

Using poly as an example, every 100 points of a contract costs 15k up front. 15k in a HYSA would provide $750 a year to discount a rental. Rental cost per 100 points is roughly $2000. So each year your out of pocket cost would be $1250 after accounting for savings income. MF each year would be $800 if you owned so now you're looking at a true cost to rent of $450/100 points.

The largest portion of the cost savings of DVC is mostly achieved many years after initial purchase when inflation has compounded for a few decades. Over 10 years, the savings of owning DVC will barely exceed closing costs and fees associated with buying and selling the contract.

Good Morning,

This response has veered off topic for what I was trying to achieve, but I will indulge the conversation

I didn't mean to imply that buying DVC points was a strategy to fund my retirement. I would not consider this investment as anything more than a gamble with disposable income. Please also remember that I enjoy renting DVC points as a side hobby. That being said, every AKV contract that I have purchased in the last month, after renting out all available points in 23'(including banked points and not borrowing into 24'), will cost me $61pp or less. With a conservative estimate of rental income minus taxes, the ROI on any of these contracts will fall somewhere around seven years. If in seven years, the DVC market returns just to its levels from this time last year, I will have at least doubled my money. History would say that we will likely get to a point beyond last years per point resale value. If you use from 2011 to last year as an example with a BWV contract that as of last year had 20 years left, you would have made 4 times your original investment on that contract. I never rented a point past the original loaded points so I am not even including additional projected rental income if I had just rented them all. I know this because employing this same exact strategy, I bought my first BWV contract at $31 per point in 2011 and the peak rental costs at the time were $10pp. The economics after adjusting for inflation are almost the same right now (actually better as MF's have not doubled from then). Is any of this guaranteed? Of course not. I guess by looking at your Poly numbers above, maybe that does answer my question of Poly or BLT vs. AKV........ I guess I will just drop the idea and the vanity purchase of either Poly or BLT.

Your strategy of parking money in a HYSA at 5% would double your money at 14.4 years before taxes. Besides being way to conservative for my tastes, I could not imagine deploying cash of any significance into a HYSA at this stage of my life or likely ever quite frankly. When the economy is this volatile, scared money loses ground. This is exactly the time to be putting your money to work buying bargains.

I certainly appreciate the discussion.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

I

Good Morning,

This response has veered off topic for what I was trying to achieve, but I will indulge the conversation

I didn't mean to imply that buying DVC points was a strategy to fund my retirement. I would not consider this investment as anything more than a gamble with disposable income. Please also remember that I enjoy renting DVC points as a side hobby. That being said, every AKV contract that I have purchased in the last month, after renting out all available points in 23'(including banked points and not borrowing into 24'), will cost me $61pp or less. With a conservative estimate of rental income minus taxes, the ROI on any of these contracts will fall somewhere around seven years. If in seven years, the DVC market returns just to its levels from this time last year, I will have at least doubled my money. History would say that we will likely get to a point beyond last years per point resale value. If you use from 2011 to last year as an example with a BWV contract that as of last year had 20 years left, you would have made 4 times your original investment on that contract. I never rented a point past the original loaded points so I am not even including additional projected rental income if I had just rented them all. I know this because employing this same exact strategy, I bought my first BWV contract at $31 per point in 2011 and the peak rental costs at the time were $10pp. The economics after adjusting for inflation are almost the same right now (actually better as MF's have not doubled from then). Is any of this guaranteed? Of course not. I guess by looking at your Poly numbers above, maybe that does answer my question of Poly or BLT vs. AKV........ I guess I will just drop the idea and the vanity purchase of either Poly or BLT.

Your strategy of parking money in a HYSA at 5% would double your money at 14.4 years before taxes. Besides being way to conservative for my tastes, I could not imagine deploying cash of any significance into a HYSA at this stage of my life or likely ever quite frankly. When the economy is this volatile, scared money loses ground. This is exactly the time to be putting your money to work buying bargains.

I certainly appreciate the discussion.

I don't disagree with your thoughts here. I was just pointing out that there is less incentive to purchase for a short term need. However, with current resale prices you would likely come out in the plus side with any contract over the next 10 years.

To your original question - if i had your current contracts the only reason I'd consider purchasing one if the monorail resorts over AKV would be if you foresee issues getting the room type you want at the 7 month window.

 

[tom1944]

Good Morning,

This response has veered off topic for what I was trying to achieve, but I will indulge the conversation

I didn't mean to imply that buying DVC points was a strategy to fund my retirement. I would not consider this investment as anything more than a gamble with disposable income. Please also remember that I enjoy renting DVC points as a side hobby. That being said, every AKV contract that I have purchased in the last month, after renting out all available points in 23'(including banked points and not borrowing into 24'), will cost me $61pp or less. With a conservative estimate of rental income minus taxes, the ROI on any of these contracts will fall somewhere around seven years. If in seven years, the DVC market returns just to its levels from this time last year, I will have at least doubled my money. History would say that we will likely get to a point beyond last years per point resale value. If you use from 2011 to last year as an example with a BWV contract that as of last year had 20 years left, you would have made 4 times your original investment on that contract. I never rented a point past the original loaded points so I am not even including additional projected rental income if I had just rented them all. I know this because employing this same exact strategy, I bought my first BWV contract at $31 per point in 2011 and the peak rental costs at the time were $10pp. The economics after adjusting for inflation are almost the same right now (actually better as MF's have not doubled from then). Is any of this guaranteed? Of course not. I guess by looking at your Poly numbers above, maybe that does answer my question of Poly or BLT vs. AKV........ I guess I will just drop the idea and the vanity purchase of either Poly or BLT.

Your strategy of parking money in a HYSA at 5% would double your money at 14.4 years before taxes. Besides being way to conservative for my tastes, I could not imagine deploying cash of any significance into a HYSA at this stage of my life or likely ever quite frankly. When the economy is this volatile, scared money loses ground. This is exactly the time to be putting your money to work buying bargains.

I certainly appreciate the discussion.

That is an interesting post.

It seems like an inexpensive method to have a real estate portfolio as part of your overall investment portfolio.

 

[MFMont]

That is an interesting post.

It seems like an inexpensive method to have a real estate portfolio as part of your overall investment portfolio.

SHHHHHHHH. Sometimes I wrestle with being to open I am creating competition. Diversification is a key for a good financial strategy. I thought long and hard about buying our winter retirement home at some point during the next year if the housing market continues to slow. Then I thought about the much larger dollars and risk for a really murky outcome. Also trying to rent long term in a seasonal area comes with headaches. I would not want to do the more profitable, short term route by renting weeks or months. I just think that would be bad karma in a neighborhood you will make your future home in. DVC is something I know well and have seen this cycle before. I let you know in seven to ten years how it worked out.

 

[tom1944]

SHHHHHHHH. Sometimes I wrestle with being to open I am creating competition. Diversification is a key for a good financial strategy. I thought long and hard about buying our winter retirement home at some point during the next year if the housing market continues to slow. Then I thought about the much larger dollars and risk for a really murky outcome. Also trying to rent long term in a seasonal area comes with headaches. I would not want to do the more profitable, short term route by renting weeks or months. I just think that would be bad karma in a neighborhood you will make your future home in. DVC is something I know well and have seen this cycle before. I let you know in seven to ten years how it worked out.

I had a 2 family duplex many years ago as part of a diversified portfolio. It was walking distance to the NYC trains.

The property was a good investment, but it took a lot of work.

DVC rentals do not require that much involvement.

I see a number of people doing similar to what you are doing when I search the Orange county deeds. I was an investigator until I retired so I generally probe into the information if something catches my attention.

There are a number of real estate people in Florida that purchase the contracts.

 

[MFMont]

I

I don't disagree with your thoughts here. I was just pointing out that there is less incentive to purchase for a short term need. However, with current resale prices you would likely come out in the plus side with any contract over the next 10 years.

To your original question - if i had your current contracts the only reason I'd consider purchasing one if the monorail resorts over AKV would be if you foresee issues getting the room type you want at the 7 month window.

Unfortunately, I agree with your take on the monorail resorts. It seems that I can get poly rooms easy enough. We have stayed at the contempo but never in BLT, so not even sure we would like it. But I really wanted to put PVB in my disboards signature

 

[MFMont]

I had a 2 family duplex many years ago as part of a diversified portfolio. It was walking distance to the NYC trains.

The property was a good investment, but it took a lot of work.

DVC rentals do not require that much involvement.

I see a number of people doing similar to what you are doing when I search the Orange countyh deeds. I was an investigator until I retired so I generally probe into the information if something catches my attention.

There are a number of real estate people in Florida that purchase the contracts.

Have you rented points before? While I am sure it is not nearly as involved as owning a duplex, there is certainly a work component to it. I happen to enjoy most of it, but there is certainly envolvement. You could always use a rental company but you are giving up maybe 20% of potential by doing so.

 

[tom1944]

Have you rented points before? While I am sure it is not nearly as involved as owning a duplex, there is certainly a work component to it. I happen to enjoy most of it, but there is certainly envolvement. You could always use a rental company but you are giving up maybe 20% of potential by doing so.

I have not and it is very unlikely that I would.

We are new DVC owners and I just retired so I am really not at a stage in my investments that I would need to rent points. If we are not going to use the points for whatever reason, I would give them to a family member.

My siblings have beach houses that we have access to so that would just me returning the favor.

I think what you are doing is a pretty solid plan.

 

[sethschroeder]

POLY and BLT are not in the same league as AKV. Two of those are next to Parks and the other is a bus only resort similar to SSR/OKW (but with better grounds/offering).

I think POLY/BLT hold their value better, benefit with lower MFs (from monorail and no animal upkeep), and are easier to rent out for a premium likely if you do need to rent them.

AKV enters the chat because of Value rooms but those can not be counted on. The Value rooms really make me think DVC should honestly do a "cheap" "entry level" offering possibly in a building(s) at POP or AOA with lower point charts and only Studios/Guaranteed Connected Studios.

 

[jrieder]

If my home resort is SSR what are my chances of scoring the value room at akv in mid-august? Also the value rooms are valued just because of their view?

 

[intamin]

If my home resort is SSR what are my chances of scoring the value room at akv in mid-august? Also the value rooms are valued just because of their view?

0. Unless you’re lucky with a waitlist. Value rooms are popular because they’re very cheap and they’re always booked by people with AKV points and there is limited inventory. You may be able to grab a value 1BR but that’s about it at 7 months.

 

[jrieder]

0. Unless you’re lucky with a waitlist. Value rooms are popular because they’re very cheap and they’re always booked by people with AKV points and there is limited inventory. You may be able to grab a value 1BR but that’s about it at 7 months.

Just curious how many points for 1 night is the value 1br in the summer? Any other value rooms in Dvc?

 

[intamin]

Just curious how many points for 1 night is the value 1br in the summer? Any other value rooms in Dvc?

There are value studios, 1BRs and 2BRs. The studios and 2BRs are pretty much exclusively booked by people who own at AKV.

https://cdn2.parksmedia.wdprapps.di...a/animal-kingdom-villas-kidani/AKV_2024v2.pdf

This is the point chart for AKV. Again though even with the 1BRs I would not expect to see full availability at 7 months.

 

[jrieder]

Wow now I am thinking I should have chosen akv as my home resort vs SSR cost for points for akv are now equal to ssr

 

[Mikey15]

Wow now I am thinking I should have chosen akv as my home resort vs SSR cost for points for akv are now equal to ssr

SSR dues are less than AKV, and because the Value and Club Level rooms are so few, I’m not sure I’d even take them into consideration. Standard and Savannah availability is pretty darn good at 7mo.

Getting a poor view just to save a few points doesn’t seem worth it to me, nor does the CL premium.