Poll: Has the 2042 Bubble Burst?

Has the 2042 DVC Bubble Burst?

  • Yes

    Votes: 44 32.6%
  • No

    Votes: 91 67.4%

  • Total voters
    135
I don’t think they’re worthless yet, but at this point I do think the risk is far greater than the upside of owning at VB/HHI.
What is the upside to owning at VB? IMO, If any DVC property is going to be worthless, it's going to be VB. The low chart just pounds owners with dues, because you proportionately own so much of a resort with so much risk on the coast. It's not like dues are getting cheaper, or you'll get a bunch of cash if they sell or something.

VB as SAP makes no sense to me right now. VB would have to be free for me to take $13 dues over $18 renting.
 
What is the upside to owning at VB? IMO, If any DVC property is going to be worthless, it's going to be VB. The low chart just pounds owners with dues, because you proportionately own so much of a resort with so much risk on the coast. It's not like dues are getting cheaper, or you'll get a bunch of cash if they sell or something.

VB as SAP makes no sense to me right now. VB would have to be free for me to take $13 dues over $18 renting.
I never said they’re good as SAP lol. And I agree VB will be the first to be worthless as I’ve said many times on here before. It’s really only maybe somewhat worth it if you want to stay there, but even then as I alluded to in my comment, the risk is far greater than the upside and you’re better off owning any other WDW property and trying at 7 months. The comments about rental value were to prove that VB is not valuable as rental points or SAP because even if you did rent them DVCRM would cap what you get to 18 dollars per point which I’m pretty sure they don’t even offer for VB/HHI and then take away taxes and you’re basically just getting your maintenance fees back. In another year or two if you rent out your points you’re taking a loss.There’s pretty decent availability at 7 months most months of the year. I’ve said for awhile on here I wouldn’t take a VB contract even if it were free but lol thanks anyways @RoseGold
 
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What is the upside to owning at VB? IMO, If any DVC property is going to be worthless, it's going to be VB. The low chart just pounds owners with dues, because you proportionately own so much of a resort with so much risk on the coast. It's not like dues are getting cheaper, or you'll get a bunch of cash if they sell or something.
Does anyone here know if other seaside resorts (outside of DVC) are facing the same problem? I wonder if dues on this level are an unavoidable consequence of seafront properties. If these are the unavoidable costs of maintaining a seaside resort, shouldn't we either see the rack rates of all hotels in these locations increase strongly over time or hotels going out of business (if no one is willing to pay a rate that covers cost, any business will have to close sooner or later).
 
Does anyone here know if other seaside resorts (outside of DVC) are facing the same problem? I wonder if dues on this level are an unavoidable consequence of seafront properties. If these are the unavoidable costs of maintaining a seaside resort, shouldn't we either see the rack rates of all hotels in these locations increase strongly over time or hotels going out of business (if no one is willing to pay a rate that covers cost, any business will have to close sooner or later).
It’s all over the place. Some age without huge assessments. Some have gone poorly.

Florida in particular is suffering right now because condos have become prohibitively expensive to insure there for some very specific reasons, some idiosyncratic to the state and too political for here, but a lot boiling down to “there’s been a lot more extreme weather events than we’d modeled and we need to adjust”. And that is making dues climb quickly across the state, but even more so on the coasts.
 


Does anyone here know if other seaside resorts (outside of DVC) are facing the same problem? I wonder if dues on this level are an unavoidable consequence of seafront properties. If these are the unavoidable costs of maintaining a seaside resort, shouldn't we either see the rack rates of all hotels in these locations increase strongly over time or hotels going out of business (if no one is willing to pay a rate that covers cost, any business will have to close sooner or later).
Would be interesting to see compared to other resorts in the area of VB &/or HH.
 
Does anyone here know if other seaside resorts (outside of DVC) are facing the same problem? I wonder if dues on this level are an unavoidable consequence of seafront properties. If these are the unavoidable costs of maintaining a seaside resort, shouldn't we either see the rack rates of all hotels in these locations increase strongly over time or hotels going out of business (if no one is willing to pay a rate that covers cost, any business will have to close sooner or later).
I had owned a property in Ocean City Maryland and can tell you that just the salt air and wind blown sand caused wear and tear that added a high cost to maintain the property let alone the ever increasing costs for hurricane insurance.
 
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What is the upside to owning at VB? IMO, If any DVC property is going to be worthless, it's going to be VB. The low chart just pounds owners with dues, because you proportionately own so much of a resort with so much risk on the coast. It's not like dues are getting cheaper, or you'll get a bunch of cash if they sell or something.

VB as SAP makes no sense to me right now. VB would have to be free for me to take $13 dues over $18 renting.
I was browsing a resale site recently and saw a (lone, but still) $45/pt Listing for VB. Several more in the $50s.

Sure seems like that resort is at a tipping point right now. Napkin math without time value of money considered, that’d be ~$16.36 per point per year left on the contract. Paying $90 (twice as much) for OKW 2042 would be ~$14.87 per point per year. And it’s an even better deal to pay a little more (~$90-110) for the longer life of SSR, OKW’57, AKV, or AUL.
 


As someone who owns two 2042 resorts, this is a fascinating discussion. I recently sold two SSR contracts that had been purchased resale in 2008 and 2009 and opted to sell them both vs keeping the smaller one and selling BWV. Those SSR points were basically SAP that were used all over - Aulani, BLT, Poly, GF, AKL, VGC, OKW, and HHI. So I figure I got good value out of them. But as I grow older I'm interested in going other places more than WDW, so I'll keep the two 2042 contracts until they expire, then who knows how often I'll go back to WDW.

My other 2042 is HHI, which as has been said, dues are going to soon outpace cash price. But I bought there for a studio in the summer and have gotten 10 good years out of it already. So good value for what I wanted, and you basically can't book there cash for a studio in summer.

And I recently picked up a small VGC contract, so I'll still get my Disney fix at Walt's original park. :)
 
FWIW, when recently getting into my first DVC contract, I ended up going with AKV because at a 2057 date, there’s a chance that I could use them with grandkids, where 2042 wouldn’t be the case. So definitely played into my decision making.
 
Amazing seeing these prices from 2015 and where they are today.
I’m still reading through the responses to this thread, but having purchased BWV in the late 90s for $65 /point I certainly couldn’t have imagined then the current pricing and the value it has held. We’ve had 25 years of amazing DVC membership, with just under 20 more to go. Resale wasn’t really a “thing” back then, so I’ve always accepted that it would just run out in 2042, when I will have just turned 80, which seemed like good timing ☺️

While I’ve recently thought of reselling before then given the current prices, I’ve decided I’m just going roll the dice and enjoy our Boardwalk stays for as long as we can! Though we also now own at VGF, there is simply no better DVC resort in our minds than BWV. Being able to walk to two parks (or scooter when I'm older ;) and the vibe of the Crescent Lake area just can’t be beat.

Long live BWV 🙌
 
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I’m still reading through the responses to this thread, but having purchased BWV in the late 90s for $65 /point I certainly couldn’t have imagined then the current pricing and the value it has held. We’ve had 25 years of amazing DVC membership, with just under 20 more to go. Resale wasn’t really a “thing” back then, so I’ve always accepted that it would just run out in 2042, when I will have just turned 80, which seemed like good timing ☺️

While I’ve recently thought of reselling before then given the current prices, I’ve decided I’m just going roll the dice and enjoy our Boardwalk stays for as long as we can! Though we also now own at VGF, there is simply no better DVC resort in our minds than BWV. Being able to walk to two parks (or scooter when I'm older ;) and the vibe of the Crescent Lake area just can’t be beat.

Long live BWV 🙌
Well said. I could’ve written this but you’ve said it better! 🙂

We‘ve had ours since 2008 & paid more ($81/pt), so only 15 yrs but feel the exact way as you.

Have VGF too, but love our BWV for EPCOT.

Thought of selling also…but no…so glad we didn’t..keeping til the end even if my grandkids have to push us around 😉
 
Well said. I could’ve written this but you’ve said it better! 🙂

We‘ve had ours since 2008 & paid more ($81/pt), so only 15 yrs but feel the exact way as you.

Have VGF too, but love our BWV for EPCOT.

Thought of selling also…but no…so glad we didn’t..keeping til the end even if my grandkids have to push us around 😉

Love it, IYKYK!
 

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