Pixar Stock Overvalued?

[Peter Pirate]

Barron's reported its opinion that Pixar stock (tradng at $71.56) was overvalued and estimated fair value at between $45.00-60.00.

Interesting timing, don't you think? This cannot be good news for Pixar in their negotiations with Disney as I would think they would certainly fear some followup repurcussions from this article with their stockholders should a new deal with Disney fall through...

Thoughts?

 

[Bstanley]

Since the only stockholder that matters is Stevie J* I don't think this report will have any effect in the least.

* He owns more than 50%...

 

[Peter Pirate]

Bruce, do you mean the fact that he's considering servering ties to Disney and may be going it alone wouldn't mean he may possibly be needing more stockholder participation in the future?

Do you really think he can remain an island?

 

[jlambrig]

Pixar's share price is an interesting topic. Normally, it is a regular rollercoaster as it climbs in anticipation of of their movies and drops once the movie has peaked. Nemo has altered the landscape in many ways and Pixar's stock is another example. Contract negotiations (with the wolves ready to snap up anything Disney leaves behind) along with the remarkable business done by Nemo, and already good buzz about The Incredibles, has held off the drop in stock price. Based on history, this is a stock that is primed to be shorted. It is very expensive right now and an adjustment is probable. Of course, as the disclaimers say, past performance is no indicator of future results.

CBS Marketwatch.com said "...A new partnership with Disney could be imminent and raise Pixar's share of profits on future films, Barron's says..."

 

[Galahad]

Do you really think he can remain an island?

A multi-use pronoun in a question like that, isn't it?

 

[Another Voice]

An island?

Or maybe that since Iger spent the last week spinning how a deal's "this close" all the Wall Street types are neverous that Pixar's going tie itself to a sinking ship.

You'll notice that all the talk about a deal is coming from Disney and not a peep from Pixar. Yes, the politics of Hollywood business do get nasty. I mean, it's not like some other Mega Media Monster might like to see Pixar's stock drop a bit before they put in their own bid.

 

[DisneyKidds]

So AV, are you saying that the rumor I read (without anything to back it up except the fact that someone who works in a lower level capacity at WDW heard something on Fox that might have jumped the gun) that said Disney and Pixar reached a deal in which Disney gave up a lot are unfounded?

 

[Peter Pirate]

"A sinking ship"???

To this I ask you, what was Disney's profit last year? It was down yes, but hardly in the "sinking" category!

Also, Pixar did so poorly aligning themselves with Disney in the first place, I can see how this "sinking ship" would be bad for them now.

You do make a valid point about any other suitor being happy with this news, as well. But the final decision will be business and certainly it would be easier on both Pixar and Disney if an acceptable arrangement can be negotiated. Disney is capable of moving on without Pixar, in fact they have to be because it may be out of their hands. Pixar is capable of moving on without Disney, but it will be into unchartered waters and while their product speaks for itself it is still better to not risk when not necessary. Wouldn't you agree?

 

[Another Voice]

"I can see how this "sinking ship" would be bad for them now."

Atlantis, Treasure Planet and "Animation is just for Saturday Mornings" - M. Einser. And would Pixar want to invest the millions for a TV to appear on ABC when it show up on NBC or CBS instead? Pixar's theme park presence is limited to kiddie lands - not the kind of major attraction they think they have a right to.


Other than that, I pretty much agree with you. Change is always risky - especially now that it involves so much money. No one expected the Pixar films to be consistantly such massive hits. It's like a team on a winning streak - no one knows why it's happening so people so no one wants to fiddle with things. I'm sure Pixar would prefer (everything else being equal) not to mess things up (and because they beleive they'll outlast Eisner), and Disney is desperate for the cash - it's half their film related profits (and I'm desperate for Disney to keep whatever flickering ember of imgination they have left no matter who they have to buy it from).

The "deal" appears to be little more than Iger talking up the stock at the recent WDW party. I haven't heard or read anything at all from Pixar, and even Iger's statement is little more than "look at all we're giving up!". It is curious that he waves the white flag so hard and so publically the very same week the details of the Warner Brother's bid gets leaked. I feel that Pixar is waiting to see how Brother Bear and Lonney Tunes fare at the box office. Everyone keeps saying that Disney's marketing is such a well oiled machine, but they've had nothing but a string of mega-flops and underperformers (and I'm including Lilo in that too). This will be Warner's big chance that they can open an animated film (more or less) where Disney struggles to.

 

[Golter]

I do not believe that for one minute.....

 

[Bstanley]

P.Pirate

I don't think that Stevie J is going to change his negotiating position one iota based on a Wall Street opinion of the value of Pixar stock.

Also - unless he is thinking of having Pixar internally fund their movies (a risky choice) the company has more than sufficient capital to continue to operate - so other than forging a distribution/marketing deal with someone yes I do think he plans on staying 'an island'.

 

[Another Voice]

These two stories are back-to-back in today's Studio Briefing (http://studiobrf.newshare.com/)

NO NEW HAND-DRAWN FILMS BEING TURNED OUT AT DISNEY
Following the costly failure of Treasure Planet early this year and the generally poor performance of other hand-drawn animated films, Disney for the first time in decades has no traditional animated features in production, the Los Angeles Times reported Sunday. Entertainment analyst Jeffrey Logsdon of Harris Nesbitt Gerard told the newspaper, "The realities are that consumer expectations are now driven by a new type of animation that has three dimensions," referring to computer-generated films like the Pixar-produced Finding Nemo, which Disney distributed and which went on to become the top-grossing film of the year. Nevertheless, Disney animation chief David Stainton told the Times that the success of a movie "really depends on the filmmakers' vision and story. The technique is a secondary consideration."



LION KING ROARS BACK
The Lion King has added another record to its collection: fastest selling re-release in home video history. Disney's Buena Vista Home Video said on Friday that the special-edition version of the animated feature, which includes an additional song and new animation, sold 3 million copies in its first two days in release.

So either traditional animation is completely dead or it's the biggest thing in history. Go figure.

 

[DancingBear]

Originally posted by Another Voice
Pixar's theme park presence is limited to kiddie lands - not the kind of major attraction they think they have a right to.

??? Buzz Lightyear ride is in Tomorrowland, It's Tough to Be a Bug is inside the icon tree at Animal Kingdom, Toy Story had its own parade in the Studios, Toy Story and Monsters Inc. are both in the current Studios parade, and Nemo is reportedly being added to The Living Seas.

 

[Bstanley]

Flush with cash, Pixar last February approved production on what is intended to become the first movie outside the existing Disney deal. Jobs has tried to keep details of this so-called "Project 2006" under wraps, though details have leaked in various news reports.

Apparently Stevie J thinks he's got enough money to go it totally alone after all. The man has always been a gambler - ya gotta love him!

 

[Another Voice]

"???"

Compared with the set-ups Disney together for George Lucas and the Muppets (the Muppets!!) - you bet Pixar feels a little short changed by dressed-up carny rides.

 

[DancingBear]

The Muppets and the Star Wars characters had been around a LOOOONNNNNGGG time, with multiple movie appearances, before they got a WDW attraction. Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo are quite new (and yet Nemo is apparently finding its way into The Living Seas).

It's Tough to be a Bug is a major 4D attraction in arguably THE major location in AK.

Is this really keeping Steve Jobs up at night?

 

[crusader]

So either traditional animation is completely dead or it's the biggest thing in history. Go figure.

Wait'll you see the sales figures for Nemo's DVD.

Yes there is a market for traditional animation but it is not in the U.S. box office right now. (Oh Brother Bear where Art Thou?)

As for Jobs - and the Pixar stock value: Any bets on whether he exercized a bundle of options? Oh Yeah!

 

[jlambrig]

Originally posted by crusader
As for Jobs - and the Pixar stock value: Any bets on whether he exercized a bundle of options? Oh Yeah!

It's actually been Lasseter exercising the options over the past couple of years. Back near the end of 2002, he was exercising shares at 20 cents and selling at around $50. That's a good gig