So far, I’ll say this: I’m truly baffled by the fixation with 20 reservations. I feel like I’m watching Spinal Tap but instead of “This one goes to eleven”, it’s “But I don’t have 20 reservations so I’m good”. The collective rationalization is fascinating. It here, and it’s in every Facebook post I’ve seen.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”
--Upton Sinclair
What does "majority" mean?
The plain meaning is: "More than half."
Yes. This is a major obstacle for commercial renters to overcome if they try to fight back against
DVC’s enforcement.
It's very clear (and has been for a while, IMO) that Disney has very carefully framed this entire discussion as "We are just clarifying what the documents have always said."
Here's how I read all of this, in light of how other developers have done similar things:
These are not Rules so much as Reasons. And as Don notes in the rest of his post (a part I did not quote), the list is not all of the possible Reasons. (That's what the "[w]ithout limiting the discretion" clause means.)
Here's the difference between a Rule and a Reason. Rules are an exhaustive list that clearly define The Line. If you violate them, you are on the wrong side of The Line; if you stay within them, you are on the right side of The Line. Reasons are the justifications for doing something that Disney wants to do anyway, and in most cases will be viewed by most impartial observers as reasonable in light of The Reasons.
The way this has played out with Wyndham: They had a short list of who they considered to be the worst offenders, and those specific individuals were very publicly targeted. The first round was a set of "knock it off or else" letters. Those who chose "or else" had their accounts frozen, and were essentially dared to sue. Almost without fail, each of those individuals was so obviously running a business that almost no one else* thought that what they were doing was within The (implied) Rules. Rank and file owners generally lined up with Wyndham and against the Evil Mega-Renters, leaving the latter on an island.
At that point, the Evil Mega-Renters were left with the following choices: exit the business, or try to take Wyndham to court. I can think of exactly one person who negotiated an exit that wasn't a total capitulation, but he did so in part by pointing out all the loopholes that the other Evil Mega-Renters were using to get leverage in the system, so he had something to offer. The rest were stuck in endless and very expensive litigation unitl they either reached a settlment that included an NDA and an agreement to never own Wyndham again, or they just quit.
Will Disney do that? I don't know. But it sure looks like they are lining up the ducks to do exactly this. Slowly.
As I've also noted before, this "shoot first ask questions later" approach Wyndham took to was modestly successful, but it was partly a game of whack-a-mole. What was much more successful? Cancelling a few rental reservations made by some of those worst offenders at the very last minute, and telling the guests when they arrived; "Sorry, we can't help you." Those guests then told everyone, everywhere, that Wyndham rentals were "risky" and demand plummeted, and fast. If you do not believe me, go back and skim
the we loooooove Bonnet Creek thread. For years, WBC was the darling of the offsite deal-seeking community: a resort with tons of availability at extremely good prices that felt like it was inside the bubble. Almost overnight, demand cratered. To this day, there are a lot of "be careful, Wyndham cancels reservations" warnings whenever anyone talks about renting there.
At the end of the day, here is the thing I think most people are missing. Disney
does not have to have an airtight legal case for this to work. The guidelines may or may not be entirely 100% kosher. It won't matter, for two reasons. One: Disney is almsot certinly going to choose the absolute worst offenders that no reasonable person would say is not a buisness. For example, if I were one of the named principals in one of the Large Broker's group of LLC-owned Memberships, I would assume there is a target on my back. Two: Even if Disney's case is not airtight, they absolutely can (and probably will) starve out individual owners in expensive litigation.
"What about a pro bono class action suit? That will save us!" To the extent I understand the economics of those things, there is approximately no chance of that happening, because the class is not nearly big enough and the damages are not large enough.
I appreciate that no one has put this to the test, but I was wondering if anyone can tell from the wording whether breaking one of these rules is enough to be penalised, or if breaking one of the rules will simply make them investigate you for potentially being a commercial renter.
This is exactly what I mean by Rules vs. Reasons. This question is framed in a Rules world. Disney is not going to use a bunch of criteria to sweep up 10% of the ownership to hassle, beyond
maybe sending a "hey, knock it off" letter. They are going to pick a dozen or so of the largest, most egregious examples they can find, and go after them first, pointing to this list as the Reasons.
And, if I were a betting man, I'd bet they already know who those dozen or so people are---and have for years.
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*: The exceptions were, almost without fail, other medium-to-large-scale renters. They spent a lot of time trying to convince the rank-and-file owners that these moves were harming their ownership. The rank-and-file owners were not having it.