Official Hurricane Ivan Thread

[CM_Mom]

Well folks, it looks like Ivan hasn't gone away like we hoped so I'm starting a thread for all of us who are compulsive about watching.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23 11PM 9/7/04

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A 1 AM 9/8/04

Short version:
Category 4 hurricane with 135 MPH sustained winds. Possibility of strengthening. Headed toward Jamaica by Friday morning. After that differences of opinion.


HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 11pm 9/7/04

The current chant:

WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN

followed by

STAY SOUTH Ivan STAY SOUTH

 

[Krystina'sMommy]

Originally posted by CM_Mom
Well folks, it looks like Ivan hasn't gone away like we hoped so I'm starting a thread for all of us who are compulsive about watching.

The current chant:

WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN

followed by

STAY SOUTH Ivan STAY SOUTH

Thanks, CM_Mom, that would include me (compulsive hurricane watcher)! I'm all for WEAKEN, IVAN, WEAKEN, but since I am at the Southern most tip of TEXAS (just inland from South Padre Island), STAY SOUTH, IVAN, STAY SOUTH would not be good for us, especially since we will be trying to make it into Orlando on the 18th for the Sept 19th sailing of the Wonder. ..........Keeping my eyes open !

 

[cjsmith]

I just can't take this anyrmore, enough I say. After the last two I'm tired and now this one is projected to come right in our backyards again. And to top it off, I"m scheduled to go to Disney on Wednesday night thought Sunday to get some fun and R&R. Ivan needs to turn right now.

 

[CM_Mom]

Unfortunately, it looks like Ivan isn't listening.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24 at 5 am 9/8/04

Short story. Slowing down, 140 MPH winds and slight turn toward the northwest. Too soon to predict with any certainty where he goes but it doesn't look good.

Cjsmith, we'll just have to pray that Ivan weakens.

WEAKEN, Ivan WEAKEN

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081140
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5
WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE...NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 65.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[MBFergie]

Can I cry!! Is crying allowed in hurricanes!!

My heart feels for all the people who have had their lives altered due to the past 2 hurricanes. So far we've been lucky, Charlie hit when I was on the Magic, no damage to us in Sth Florida. Frances caused me two sleepless nights without a/c (no electricity) and alot of cleanning up, but I can handle that. Now Ivan wants to come visit. I say "GO AWAY".

Friday morning I plan on waking my kids up for school (wink,wink) and driving them to the airport for a surprise trip to Chicago to see the Marlin/Cub game at Wrigley Field. I'm afraid to go and leave the rest of my family and dog here with another storm out there. Go far, far west Mr. Ivan and play nice!!

 

[rinkwide]

Next stop Jamaica followed by Havana and then Key West...

 

[CM_Mom]

Hello everyone, check this out and keep your hopes up.

Guess I don't know how to get an image in here so here's the link

Ivan Spaghetti Model

This shows all the "potential" tracks that Ivan might take.

I really like this site for following all the stuff of the hurricane.

BoatUS Hurricane Site

Whatever happens, we'll all get through it by encouraging each other and praying for the best outcome.

Now the Chant:

WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN. GO AWAY

 

[SNicksed]

Thanks, Reine! I'll be following closely. We are suppose to fly into Orlando Tuesday night. ( 2 days before our 9/16 Wonder Cruise) eek:

 

[PoohJen]

Bump! Keep the info coming; great links - thanks!

 

[jlawall]

Wow, we had the BEST cruise and immediately following it.....all heck broke loose! When will the hurricanes STOP??

Best wishes for all in the Caribbean and the lower US to STAY SAFE!!

 

[tecdavidt]

This is one messed up hurricane season! When we were in Aruba they were proud to say that their island never gets affected by hurricanes--well, the ABC islands are under a hurricane warning!!! What a nightmare for those in Florida and the cruise industry. Now the western ports are in harms way. Kathy

 

[allears]

Let's all hope that Ivan makes a major turn to no where or falls apart. Florida and her residents certainly do not need another hit. It's like what one stormed missed that next one is aiming for so that the whole state gets socked. Of course it is a long way from our mainland yet, so maybe the US will be spared. Here's to keeping our fingers crossed.

I'm a little compulsive about watching hurricanes as it is. My folks live in Myrtle Beach, so they are at risk through out the season. And we always hope that the season comes and goes with out this much incident.

Selfishly I have to say that at least if it comes to the US, it should be out of the way before our sailing date of 9/25. Again, I know that's selfish, but what can I say, I'm really looking forward to this trip. This time of the year was not our first choice, actually this was the third slot we moved our cruise to which was originally booked for February. I like the price, but not the stress.

I know we'll all be watching. These boards are about the best source of up to date information I have ever seen.

 

[CM_Mom]

Unfortunately friends, this bad boy isn't getting much better.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 at 5:00pm 8/8/04

And for those of you who like the in depth discussion
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 at 5:00pm 8/8/04

Now the short and NOT so sweet:

Ivan is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds near 140 mph. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two. It must be RE-EMPHASIZED that the forecast track beyond 72 hours continues to be HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

Ivan is expected to be over Jamaica by 2pm Friday and Western Cuba at 2 pm on Saturday. Beyone that we can only pray.

WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN

Our prayers continue to be with those still suffering from the after effects of Frances and who are and will suffer from Ivan.

 

[CM_Mom]

I really don't like the way this guy is behaving.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 at 11:00pm 8/8/04

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 at 11:00 pm 8/8/04

The short version: Ivan is packing 145 mph winds and is a serious Category 4 storm with some strengthening possible. Ivan should continue west-northwestward toward Jamaica. Things get more uncertain after 48 hours.

The Spaghetti Model on BoatUs Hurricane Center is all over the place.

IVAN - GO AWAY!

 

[Grumpy's Mom]

Here's a model from Hurricanealley.net

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/09L.html

 

[TiggerKing]

So, I thought I would check it out. Upgraded to a Cat 5 (not the kind of upgrade we like on this board). Still projected into the Gulf, but 5 day shows possibility of a west coast strike.

 

[silver7]

Uh oh, it turned again