Official Hurricane IVAN Thread - Part II

[HumanCookie]

5 PM Bulletin - Sept. 13

WTNT34 KNHC 132051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 132041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 132357
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HITTING EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
HARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. AT 715 PM EDT...SANDINO METEOROLOGICAL
STATION IN PINAR DEL RIO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 124 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 162 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 140010
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...CORRECTED WARNING STATUS FOR CUBA...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HITTING EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
HARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. AT 715 PM EDT...SANDINO METEOROLOGICAL
STATION IN PINAR DEL RIO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 124 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 162 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 140233
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[CM_Mom]

Here's the link to the latest:
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A at 2:00am 9/14/04
Short version:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 922 MB.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 141133
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS
FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...180
KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND 450 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 225 MILES...360 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...23.1 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[TiggerKing]

Just viewed this comment as a caption to a picture of wave action in Cancun Mexico:

THE WRATH OF IVAN
CANCUN

Waves grow more intense by the hotel zone of Cancun, Mexico, Monday. The island of Cozumel shut down its airport, halted the arrival of cruise ships and prohibited all maritime navigation. Visitors to Cancun were advised not to stray from their hotels.


Getting a little nasty!

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 141429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...IVAN WEAKENS...BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 140
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

RAINS IN CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.4 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 141739
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...THE CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

RAINS IN CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...23.7 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 142341
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[CM_Mom]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51


Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 14, 2004


...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan headed for the
northern Gulf Coast... A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the tropical storm watch for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas... has been discontinued.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 87.2 west or about 295 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three. Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured a minimum central pressure of 932 mb...27.52 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing overnight.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...25.1 N... 87.2 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 932 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 150837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE IVAN DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
IVAN WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY
THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 938
MB...27.70 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING TODAY.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE IVAN
APPROACHES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.1 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT44 KNHC 150839
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MOST OF THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE AND ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...938 MB FROM A DROP AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 132 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WE
EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

IVAN IS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STEERING AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH GUIDANCE. ONCE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND IVAN COULD STALL OR MOVE
ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IVAN COULD PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A
HURRICANE AT ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 151135
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IVAN WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE IVAN
APPROACHES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N... 87.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 151439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH
OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.3 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 151738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 53A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER.
OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO
SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. THE C-MAN STATION AT
SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH IN
THE PAST HOUR.

THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[CM_Mom]

Ivan looks like he is causing LOTS of problems already in the Gulf Coast area. Here's the latest - sounds like the theyre gonna be :

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 54b Statement as of 8:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan getting closer to the northern Gulf Coast...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 8 PM CDT...0100z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.0 north... longitude 88.2 west or about 85 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving toward the north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Ivan is expected to reach the coastline early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. Sustained winds of 56 mph with a gust to 78 mph was reported at the Dauphin Island C-man station...and a gust to 61 mph was reported at Mobile.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 931 mb...27.49 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama...the Florida Panhandle...and southwestern Georgia. Some tornadoes have already been reported in the Florida Panhandle.

Repeating the 8 PM CDT position...29.0 N... 88.2 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 931 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Pasch