Odds of Disney taking back points

[DisneyDotts]

Hey everyone,

So just purchased resale. In the ROFR process currently. What are the odds of Disney taking the contract if there are only 34pts coming 2019 then the full 150 in 2020. I saw the the ROFR threads a lot were taken back 1st of the year but couldn’t find anything too current or maybe I just over looked it. May hop over there again to see if I missed something. Oh resale is 150 SSR. It’s the perfect contact for me and I’m super nervous they will take it back.

Thanks
Dorothy

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Depends. Disney sometimes take and hold stripped contracts, and there is a refurb coming at SSR.

 

[DisneyDotts]

I’m keeping my fingers crossed they don’t. I thought I wouldn’t be as nervous as I am but sheesh I am.

 

[LYSE]

I think it depends more on the price paid for the contract.

 

[DisneyDotts]

Do you mean if they think the purchase price is too high for the # of points or the amount of points coming in the following years?

 

[LYSE]

Do you mean if they think the purchase price is too high for the # of points or the amount of points coming in the following years?

I'm not sure how they value the points a contract currently has or doesn't have, but basically the more you pay per point the less likely they are to take it..they don't want you getting too good of a deal.

From the ROFR thread:

SSR:


Preacherroe---$85-$26210-300-SSR-Jun-0/17, 144/18, 171/19, 300/20- sent 6/22, taken 7/18

Eric R---$90-$23310-250-SSR-Sep-0/16, 0/17, 86/18, 250/19- sent 6/28, taken 7/17

silva086---$90-$16046-160-SSR-Jun-0/17, 160/18, 160/19, 160/20- sent 7/11, taken 7/31

Gamomof2---$95-$20000-200-SSR-Mar-0/17, 17/18, 200/19, 200/20- sent 7/26, taken 8/20

bgdude---$96-$15025-150-SSR-Feb-9/17, 268/18, 159/19- sent 8/8, taken 9/4

pixie0117---$93-$13720-140-SSR-Feb-0/17, 0/18, 149/19, 140/20- sent 8/20, taken 9/17

4Tangled---$95-$24459-243-SSR-Feb-0/17, 0/18, 104/19, 243/20-Delayed close- sent 7/24, taken 8/24

Are you in that range? It looks like $96 per point is the danger zone (and some contracts did not have full points coming)

 

[Jerry5788]

Do you mean if they think the purchase price is too high for the # of points or the amount of points coming in the following years?

What did you pay per point? Above $100 should be fine and what was the UY.

 

[DisneyDotts]

$100 per point on 150 / April

 

[Jerry5788]

$100 per point on 150 / April

I wouldn’t worry it doesn’t scream a steal as it lacks most of 2019 points. Hopefully you get a credit for the 2019 points as you will need to pay the maitenance and hopefully you were able to get them to pay closing.

Best of luck!

 

[DisneyDotts]

No unfortunately I didn’t even think to ask about paying the closing.

 

[Jerry5788]

No unfortunately I didn’t even think to ask about paying the closing.

Well as long as you are happy if not you can always go back and negotiate if within 10days (prob unethical though) and not sure if $1K is with passing with your perfect contract

 

[supersnoop]

Nobody knows how they make their decision. I imagine unit number weighs heavier than purchase price or point allotment. We’ve seen contracts with the same use year and same point allotment, but $10 different, and the HIGHER priced one was taken. Multiple times. You’ve got between a 96% and 98% chance of it passing.

 

[Mumof4mice]

You should be safe at $100 for a mostly stripped SSR. Hope ROFR and the closing go smoothly for you!

 

[Bing Showei]

I imagine unit number weighs heavier than purchase price or point allotment. We’ve seen contracts with the same use year and same point allotment, but $10 different, and the HIGHER priced one was taken. Multiple times.

I think there’s something to this theory. At one point DVD had 8 March UY points at VGF that they couldn’t move for over six months. Unless a contract came in from that same unit, those 8 points would be orphaned as they cannot be combined with another unit, same UY notwithstanding.

This would also explain the seemingly randomness of contracts that pass and those that don’t irrespective, it seems, of price.

You’ve got between a 96% and 98% chance of it passing.

I’d put it closer to 98.73%.

 

[Wakey]

They took mine at 97, with 2019 points coming.

 

[Wakey]

According to the DVC Resale Market blog, 25% of their AKL were taken last month, SSR has dropped to 13%.

 

[gharter]

I don't think anyone really understands how Disney decides what contracts to take and what ones to let pass through. My guess, is that it has a lot to do with demand for direct purchases for each resort.
I used to think that price had a lot to do with it. Then I watched one of our contracts go through and another contract at the same resort for higher price per point get taken.
Good luck. Waiting for ROFR can be stressful.

 

[Matty B13]

I would say that DVC starts to slow down in the fall with their buy backs, from what I've seen since 2016.

 

[DisneyDotts]

Thanks for the input everyone. I guess I’ll just have to cross my fingers and wait. There was another contract I was looking at so I guess if this one falls through and th other is still there I may go for it. Same place, March UY and 10 points extra. We’ll see. I didn’t know how it worked if you put 2 contracts out for bid. I read in the other forums you could but it was a bit confusing.

 

[DisneyDotts]

I would say that DVC starts to slow down in the fall with their buy backs, from what I've seen since 2016.

That’s good to know