October 2021 Availability and Booking

[Sandisw]

It took me 100 times of reading this to comprehend but I think I get it. There is no way that a room past the 11 month mark could be booked fully if the 15th is showing available because there would be no way to book that room. Makes sense.

That’s correct! Another way to know things are being walked is that the only day that is gone is 11 months to the day,

For example, if the only day booked up right now is September 15th, but the rest is set, then it’s a good chance it’s walkers. If tommorrow the same thing happens and now the 16th is booked, but the 15th is back, it is definitely walkers,

But, for the 18th of September to be fully booked, at least some of those rooms were removed.

 

[JETSDAD]

That’s correct! Another way to know things are being walked is that the only day that is gone is 11 months to the day,

For example, if the only day booked up right now is September 15th, but the rest is set, then it’s a good chance it’s walkers. If tommorrow the same thing happens and now the 16th is booked, but the 15th is back, it is definitely walkers,

But, for the 18th of September to be fully booked, at least some of those rooms were removed.

In that screenshot the 18th is available. That is what normal walking activity looks like.....it's only the first 2 dates into the 11 month window that are booked solid and then availability opens back up as people walk.

 

[Sandisw]

In that screenshot the 18th is available. That is what normal walking activity looks like.....it's only the first 2 dates into the 11 month window that are booked solid and then availability opens back up as people walk.

It was an example...not meant to be specific. But even so, the 16th should not be booked today because the 11 month window is not open for that date.

In order for the 16th truly be booked today is if every room in the resort in that category has people checking out the exact same day,

So, to see days beyond the 15th gone, something else is happening that is not walking.

Like I said, if you think about it as rooms, there is no way for future days to be booked ahead of time, unless everyone is booked exactly the same number of nights, with same check out and check in.

 

[JETSDAD]

It was an example...not meant to be specific. But even so, the 16th should not be booked today because the 11 month window is not open for that date.

In order for the 16th truly be booked today is if every room in the resort in that category has people checking out the exact same day,

So, to see days beyond the 15th gone, something else is happening that is not walking.

Like I said, if you think about it as rooms, there is no way for future days to be booked ahead of time, unless everyone is booked exactly the same number of nights, with same check out and check in.

No, it actually is normal is what I'm saying. You can have multiple days into the 11 month window booked solid as long as there isn't a hole. If the 15th is booked solid the 16th can be booked solid. If the 15th is available and the 16th is not then you have something going on. Multiple days into the 11 month window being gone is pretty much a daily occurrence at AKV.

 

[Sandisw]

No, it actually is normal is what I'm saying. You can have multiple days into the 11 month window booked solid as long as there isn't a hole. If the 15th is booked solid the 16th can be booked solid. If the 15th is available and the 16th is not then you have something going on. Multiple days into the 11 month window being gone is pretty much a daily occurrence at AKV.

Then if that is normal, then DVC has been pulling rooms for a long time,

It is impossible for tomorrow to be booked already unless, as I said, every single person who has the room type booked on the 15th is also there on the 16th and no one is checking out that day.

Plus. the 16th was not there last night which makes no sense when the 15th was.

You can tell walking is different too because with the exception of a few types, the rest have just today gone, and everything else open,

So, those extra dates gone is something with the system or DVC...especially when a saw a room somewhere that had 3 nights gone already.

 

[JETSDAD]

Then if that is normal, then DVC has been pulling rooms for a long time,

It is impossible for tomorrow to be booked already unless, as I said, every single person who has the room type booked on the 15th is also there on the 16th and no one is checking out that day.

You can tell walking is different too because with the exception of a few types, the rest have just today gone, and everything else open,

So, those extra dates gone is something with the system or DVC...especially when a saw a room somewhere that had 3 nights gone already.

Yes, it is very possible that there is nobody checking out on a given day. That is not out of the ordinary and does not require MS to be pulling rooms. That happens nearly every day with Value and Club level rooms where there is a lot of demand and little inventory.

Take Club Level because there are only 5 rooms. 5 people all checking in on the 15th....one person checking out on the 17th, one on the 18th, etc. That would mean that the 15th and 16th would be booked solid. They don't all have to be checking in on the same day but I just used that as an example. As long as nobody is checking out on the 16th you have the 15th and 16th booked solid. Now assume that you have a whole bunch of people walking a certain room type....they all keep extending to keep it at 7 night booked into the 11 month window. Even with a value studio there are 18 of them. If 12 are being walked you then only need 6 other people to not be checking out on a given date....if more are being walked then you may need even less to be checking out. If you look at AKV right now, Value Studios look normal.....they are booked solid for the 15th and 16th as well which just means nobody has a check out date of the 16th....that doesn't take MS doing anything. Club studios are messed up right now because there is actually a hole part way into the 11 month window with availability prior to that date (the 17th should be available). That is when MS is playing around with something. There are often times when Club Level is booked solid 3-5 nights into the 11 month window....as long as there are no holes it simply means people aren't checking out those days.

Value:


Club:

 

[Can_Dannn]

Checked again this morning. This availability just doesn't make sense to me. Everything is open up until right at the 11 month window. It either means people are really interested in these low point season of early September or everyone is walking reservations to the 50th. Any thoughts?View attachment 532432

Walking for sure - you can see days open up as people walk forward
It's going to be quite the fight for rooms this year for the 50th actual date

 

[Sandisw]

Yes, it is very possible that there is nobody checking out on a given day. That is not out of the ordinary and does not require MS to be pulling rooms. That happens nearly every day with Value and Club level rooms where there is a lot of demand and little inventory.

Take Club Level because there are only 5 rooms. 5 people all checking in on the 15th....one person checking out on the 17th, one on the 18th, etc. That would mean that the 15th and 16th would be booked solid. They don't all have to be checking in on the same day but I just used that as an example. As long as nobody is checking out on the 16th you have the 15th and 16th booked solid. Now assume that you have a whole bunch of people walking a certain room type....they all keep extending to keep it at 7 night booked into the 11 month window. Even with a value studio there are 18 of them. If 12 are being walked you then only need 6 other people to not be checking out on a given date....if more are being walked then you may need even less to be checking out. If you look at AKV right now, Value Studios look normal.....they are booked solid for the 15th and 16th as well which just means nobody has a check out date of the 16th....that doesn't take MS doing anything. Club studios are messed up right now because there is actually a hole part way into the 11 month window with availability prior to that date (the 17th should be available). That is when MS is playing around with something. There are often times when Club Level is booked solid 3-5 nights into the 11 month window....as long as there are no holes it simply means people aren't checking out those days.

Value:
View attachment 532520

Club:

View attachment 532521

I will agree that your examples show that there is a very unique chance it is possible.

But, in the case of RIV today showing the 15th and 16th being only days gone, with the date of the 14th still there, and the 16th being gone yesterday, i Don’t think it’s walking.

Again, the chances that everyone is checking in on the same day and staying only 2 nights..we’ll at least some did since the 17th is back open...leads to it not being a walk.

 

[JETSDAD]

I will agree that your examples show that there is a very unique chance it is possible.

But, in the case of RIV today showing the 15th and 16th being only days gone, with the date of the 14th still there, and the 16th being gone yesterday, i Don’t think it’s walking.

Again, the chances that everyone is checking in on the same day and staying only 2 nights..we’ll at least some did since the 17th is back open...leads to it not being a walk.

They don't have to be checking in the same day with 2 day bookings. You can have various check in dates and check out dates....you only need 1 person checking out on the 14th and 1 person checking out on the 17th for that to show as it is (it can be more but that's all it takes). There simply needs to be 2 days of overlapping where people are not checking out. So you could have various dates but one person walking. The walker moves the start of their trip from the 14th to the 15 which then opens the 14th back up. Someone else is checking out on the 17th. It doesn't take much in smaller categories for this to happen....with very few tower studios declared it is quite easy.

 

[Sandisw]

They don't have to be checking in the same day with 2 day bookings. You can have various check in dates and check out dates....you only need 1 person checking out on the 14th and 1 person checking out on the 17th for that to show as it is (it can be more but that's all it takes). There simply needs to be 2 days of overlapping where people are not checking out. So you could have various dates but one person walking. The walker moves the start of their trip from the 14th to the 15 which then opens the 14th back up. Someone else is checking out on the 17th. It doesn't take much in smaller categories for this to happen....with very few tower studios declared it is quite easy.

You keep missing My point that he 16th was gone yesterday when the 15th was not.

So, the 16t was taken out before the 11 month window. You can’t have the 16th gone for all rooms when on the 14th, the 15th is still there.

Other than that, I’m going to agree to disagree with your premise that days beyond the 11 month can be gone before their first official booking day.

 

[heapmaster]

They don't have to be checking in the same day with 2 day bookings. You can have various check in dates and check out dates....you only need 1 person checking out on the 14th and 1 person checking out on the 17th for that to show as it is (it can be more but that's all it takes). There simply needs to be 2 days of overlapping where people are not checking out. So you could have various dates but one person walking. The walker moves the start of their trip from the 14th to the 15 which then opens the 14th back up. Someone else is checking out on the 17th. It doesn't take much in smaller categories for this to happen....with very few tower studios declared it is quite easy.

I agree, I think its more walking then MS. I was going to state the same thing you just said. Although a hole where 14th and 16th are gone but the 15th was not, means that if there are 10 rooms declared and available for booking, they took out all ten for the 16th, not sure on that one, or everyone but one person took the 15th and 16th and they took 1 room out on the 16th thus making it not available.

 

[JETSDAD]

You keep missing My point that he 16th was gone yesterday when the 15th was not.

So, the 16t was taken out before the 11 month window. You can’t have the 16th gone for all rooms when on the 14th, the 15th is still there.

Other than that, I’m going to agree to disagree with your premise that days beyond the 11 month can be gone before their first official booking day.

Ok yeah, then we're on the same page if the 16th was gone but the 15th was available. Lol. I just thought that it was multiples dates into the 11 month that were gone...not that there was a hole beyond 11 months but the 11 month date was available. The example shown doesn't show any issues...if it was different yesterday then that explains the confusion.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok yeah, then we're on the same page if the 16th was gone but the 15th was available. Lol. I just thought that it was multiples dates into the 11 month that were gone...not that there was a hole beyond 11 months but the 11 month date was available. The example shown doesn't show any issues...if it was different yesterday then that explains the confusion.

Correct. The 16th was missing yesterday and never showed up today either. So that’s how it had to be something other than walking.

 

[JETSDAD]

The only legitimate reason for that hole to show up would be a guaranteed week (though that doesn't explain the tower studio because I don't believe they sell GW's for those).

 

[Sandisw]

The only legitimate reason for that hole to show up would be a guaranteed week (though that doesn't explain the tower studio because I don't believe they sell GW's for those).

No fixed weeks for tower, Only way is it is pulled or a glitch.

 

[holyrita]

I know everything is still up in the air and will be for the foreseeable future, but I'm wondering if anyone has any idea of possible events/celebrations that may happen for the 50th?

We're trying to decide if we want to visit in September or October 2021. We're not sure if September would be better to avoid anniversary crows or October to partake in some of them if they're worth dealing with the crowds.

 

[Can_Dannn]

I know everything is still up in the air and will be for the foreseeable future, but I'm wondering if anyone has any idea of possible events/celebrations that may happen for the 50th?

We're trying to decide if we want to visit in September or October 2021. We're not sure if September would be better to avoid anniversary crows or October to partake in some of them if they're worth dealing with the crowds.

The anniversary is oct 1 but celebrations will likely be 6 month to a year long

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The anniversary is oct 1 but celebrations will likely be 6 month to a year long

As long as they can offer premium events for it, really. Upcharges galore.

 

[holyrita]

The anniversary is oct 1 but celebrations will likely be 6 month to a year long

As long as they can offer premium events for it, really. Upcharges galore.

So if I'll be back to Disney in Dec and/or Feb 2021, I won't be missing much if I go a few weeks before the anniversary besides the actual anniversary date? Cool. Thanks!

 

[fumanchu2488]

2022... but yes