This is what I'm thinking with the Disney movie release schedule.
Yes, Universal is releasing a lot, but most of those movies won't be considered failures unless they exceed 100+ million at the box office (yes, some will, but not most).
Besides Penguins, any of those Disney movies are a failure unless they at least hit 100 million domestically. I should have said that in my first post. Disney isn't releasing a bunch of low budget movies. Most of the movies on that list will be considered box office failures if they don't reach a large number. And I'm just not sure that is realistic.
It is a bit hard to say these numbers for sure, since Box office mojo hasn't released production budgets that far ahead and I don't really feel like researching farther. But I think we can say that most of these movies were not cheap to make and Disney expects a great deal out of a lot of them, whether those expectations are because of name recognition (Frozen/Dumbo/Star Wars) or what have you. I just don't know if the average movie goer has enough money in any given year/summer to see this many movies.
Going out on a limb, I'd say...
Expectations below 100 million:
Penguins
Need to hit at least 100 million to be a success:
Artemis Fowl
Need to hit at least 150 million to be a success:
Dumbo
Disney is not accustomed to Marvel movies making below 200 million. Only 4 so far have (not adjusted for inflation): Captain America, Ant Man, Thor and Incredible Hulk.
Need to hit at least 200 million to be a success:
Captain Marvel
Aladdin
Toy Story 4
Spiderman
Star Wars
The sky is the limit:
End Game
Lion King
Frozen 2
I just don't think it's wise to release this many high expectation movies in one year. I don't know if the box office can sustain that many.
.
