NEW VGF Building

[Bjaiken77]

I don’t think turn of the century Victorian, with a grand multi story lobby, is particularly subtle. It’s a level of theming Disney doesn’t do anymore, and it will command a premium. If everyone agrees it will be $220-$225, Disney will ask with incentives $235-250, and we’ll all still buy it.

I don’t know. To me, the theming of VGF is subtle. It’s certainly not AKL, POLY, or VWL. I don’t find it to have in your face Disney theming, so to me, it feels subtle. As always, opinions will differ.

 

[VdoesDisney]

If anything, I'm less likely to buy now because I'll have a better shot at studios without having to own there. Unless, of course, the price is low... that's the draw.

That’s what I have been thinking as well, getting a studio at VGF should be comparable to availability at Poly now. I’m definitely intrigued by VGF2 and will consider it at the right price point, but anywhere close to where it is at now and I don’t see the point.

 

[Nabas]

If anything, I'm less likely to buy now because I'll have a better shot at studios without having to own there.

This is what I'm wondering.

Yesterday I was hot to buy at VGF so I could reliably stay at a Studio there.

Now I'm wondering if VGF is going to be towards the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty to book at 7 months. Perhaps it will be more like BLT or PVB?

Will BCV regain its reputation as being the most difficult WDW DVC to book?

Increasingly, it's looking like VGF is not going to be worth buying, since I probably will be able to stay there from time-to-time using points I paid $55 for!

 

[Bjaiken77]

That’s what I have been thinking as well, getting a studio at VGF should be comparable to availability at Poly now. I’m definitely intrigued by VGF2 and will consider it at the right price point, but anywhere close to where it is at now and I don’t see the point.

I’m exactly in this boat. I’d have to sell my 225 point SSR contract to have even a starter fund to buy anything substantial at VGF2. I’d like to buy (without selling SSR) 50-75 points to have a MK studio I can count on for a couple nights each year, but that’s all it’ll get me based on the high point chart. Is it really worth selling 225 SSR points to get 125 VGF points (just rough math)? Or is it better to keep 225 SSR points, be grateful there is more availability at VGF, and book there occasionally. As much as I love VGF, I love a lot of the resorts. Not staying at VGF every year is fine by me if I can get in at 7 months at VWL, BLT, POLY, or VGF on a rotating basis (basically, anything in the MK area).

 

[Bjaiken77]

This is what I'm wondering.

Yesterday I was hot to buy at VGF so I could reliably stay at a Studio there.

Now I'm wondering if VGF is going to be towards the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty to book at 7 months. Perhaps it will be more like BLT or PVB?

Will BCV regain its reputation as being the most difficult WDW DVC to book?

Increasingly, it's looking like VGF is not going to be worth buying, since I probably will be able to stay there from time-to-time using points I paid $55 for!

I also had a really good time at VWL and those Copper Creek studios are a pain to book. At least I have the option to book at BRV, which I think will be a lot more attractive after the refurb (even though I can’t convince myself to buy a 2042 resort).

Even before VGF2 went on sale, I felt like I was fine getting an MK resort to combine for a split stay with an Epcot area resort. Between POLY, BLT (especially LV), and the VWL combo resorts, there were already a lot of bookable rooms in the MK area.

 

[Nabas]

I’m exactly in this boat. I’d have to sell my 225 point SSR contract to have even a starter fund to buy anything substantial at VGF2. I’d like to buy (without selling SSR) 50-75 points to have a MK studio I can count on for a couple nights each year, but that’s all it’ll get me based on the high point chart. Is it really worth selling 225 SSR points to get 125 VGF points (just rough math)? Or is it better to keep 225 SSR points, be grateful there is more availability at VGF, and book there occasionally. As much as I love VGF, I love a lot of the resorts. Not staying at VGF every year is fine by me if I can get in at 7 months at VWL, BLT, POLY, or VGF on a rotating basis (basically, anything in the MK area).

Anytime a new DVC opens, there's a rush by DVC members to stay there.

Over time, the excitement dwindles and members tend to go after rooms requiring fewer points per night.

The smaller resorts will remain hard to book but with VGF being the most expensive DVC to book at, and with an additional 200 Studios available, there's a good chance VGF will become a lot easier to book in a few years.

 

[VdoesDisney]

I’m exactly in this boat. I’d have to sell my 225 point SSR contract to have even a starter fund to buy anything substantial at VGF2. I’d like to buy (without selling SSR) 50-75 points to have a MK studio I can count on for a couple nights each year, but that’s all it’ll get me based on the high point chart. Is it really worth selling 225 SSR points to get 125 VGF points (just rough math)? Or is it better to keep 225 SSR points, be grateful there is more availability at VGF, and book there occasionally. As much as I love VGF, I love a lot of the resorts. Not staying at VGF every year is fine by me if I can get in at 7 months at VWL, BLT, POLY, or VGF on a rotating basis (basically, anything in the MK area).

In your case I definitely think keeping your SSR points makes more sense, especially considering you’ll need an above average amount of points to book at VGF. If for some reason availability is not what we suspect it will be you can always get a resale contract at VGF. I actually think resale will dip after the dust settles in 2022, the high prices were driven by the fact that you had to own at VGF to stay there but with that changing I see prices dropping.

 

[Bjaiken77]

For those of us without children, I think our own mortality needs to be a big factor in the resorts we pick. I can see us wanting to go well past the 2042 resorts expiration, but I will probably be pushing up daisies by the time my RIV contract expires. For me, the sweet spot is in that 40-50 year range, and I even find the 2057 expiration date ok. That’s why VGFs expiration works so well for me, and really, there are only a handful of resorts in its approximate age range (BLT, CCV, and POLY).

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

I did some quick math.

If I assume an initial purchase price of $225 per point, spread it out over 20 years, and add the current MF (which will increase over time), then I'm already up to $18/point, which is basically the current DVC point rental price. (Yes, I know VGF2 will be good for more than 40 years. I'm sure my kids will enjoy it but I doubt I'll be in any condition to still be going in 21 years. )

So, to your point, VGF2 doesn't make much financial sense over $200 per point.

I was thinking $225/pt is completely reasonable as compared to the rental market. Are you saying that $225/pt equates to $18/pt renting? I guess I’m not following your math. For an $18 rental per point to be the same as a $225/pt purchase, you are assuming (like renting) that you will have zero contract value when you sell at the end of 20 years....on a 42 year contract? Why? I guess you can make any assumption you want in order to get to an answer, but that one seems pretty unlikely, or maybe I’m misunderstanding the math.

I believe VGF2 will sell for greater than $225, and be a bargain, but my math is way different than the above. I think Disney will be marketing to a captive audience, people currently staying at the GF in cash rooms, post-Covid (late 2022), when the vacation market is roaring, families hungry to travel, and cash prices are at least $750/night (maybe $900/night), pre-tax, staying in the next building over on cash rates, in rooms the same size as Big Pine Key . Guides showing the correct DVC math to one of those guests, where the guest can see as DVC owners what they would have paid for that same stay (ie ~half of cash rates), and give them a room tour of the new rooms.... people will get out their checkbooks.

 

[Nabas]

I was thinking $225/pt is completely reasonable as compared to the rental market. Are you saying that $225/pt equates to $18/pt renting? I guess I’m not following your math. For an $18 rental per point to be the same as a $225/pt purchase, you are assuming (like renting) that you will have zero contract value when you sell at the end of 20 years....on a 42 year contract? Why? I guess you can make any assumption you want in order to get to an answer, but that one seems pretty unlikely, or maybe I’m misunderstanding the math.

To answer your "Why?" question (and as I previously wrote):

Yes, I know VGF2 will be good for more than 40 years. I'm sure my kids will enjoy it but I doubt I'll be in any condition to still be going in 21 years. ​

I figure I'm going to get perhaps 20 years of enjoyment out of my next DVC purchase.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This is what I'm wondering.

Yesterday I was hot to buy at VGF so I could reliably stay at a Studio there.

Now I'm wondering if VGF is going to be towards the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty to book at 7 months. Perhaps it will be more like BLT or PVB?

Will BCV regain its reputation as being the most difficult WDW DVC to book?

Increasingly, it's looking like VGF is not going to be worth buying, since I probably will be able to stay there from time-to-time using points I paid $55 for!

A lot will depend on what these rooms actually turn out to be plus it will depend on when you would like to stay there. If it's the last 4 months of the year it's probably still going to be a have to own there to reliably stay there.
There hasn't been a recommendation to own sleep around points for studios for quite a long time. 1BR's - absolutely can still work. 2BR's - it can work. And it CAN for studios but the question is about flexibility. Even PVB had been starting to show some tightening up of availability at times.

 

[Nabas]

A lot will depend on what these rooms actually turn out to be plus it will depend on when you would like to stay there. If it's the last 4 months of the year it's probably still going to be a have to own there to reliably stay there.
There hasn't been a recommendation to own sleep around points for studios for quite a long time. 1BR's - absolutely can still work. 2BR's - it can work. And it CAN for studios but the question is about flexibility. Even PVB had been starting to show some tightening up of availability at times.

Sure, for the last 3-4 months of the year, you have to (mostly) book your Home Resort. We already have the points at other DVC resorts for that. (F&WF at BWV, Christmas at Jambo.)

Really, what we want is May at VGF.

The question (for me) becomes, do I pay over $200 per point to stay at VGF1 or VGF2 each May? Or will VGF1/VGF2 become easier to book in May because of 200 additional Studios, so I can use my existing points and pay nothing (other than my current MF)?

After a great stay at VGF last week, my spouse and I were ready to buy at VGF to assure that we could stay there every May. (This happened to be right before VGF2 was announced. We traveled home convinced we just had to buy at VGF1.)

However, after looking at the number of dedicated and lockoff Studios per DVC resort:

• BRV = 65
• CCV = 78
• BCV = 110
• BLT = 133
• OKW = 230
• BWV = 246
• VGF1 + VGF2 = 247 (approximate)
• AKV = 296
• PVB = 360
• SSR = 432

I've realized there's a reason PVB Studios seem relatively easy to book - there are so many of them. (And none are lockoffs!)

With about 247 Studios, VGF1/VGF2 is going to become one of the larger DVC resorts, at least when it comes to Studios.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Sure, for the last 3-4 months of the year, you have to (mostly) book your Home Resort. We already have the points at other DVC resorts for that. (F&WF at BWV, Christmas at Jambo.)

Really, what we want is May at VGF.

The question (for me) becomes, do I pay over $200 per point to stay at VGF1 or VGF2 each May? Or will VGF1/VGF2 become easier to book in May because of 200 additional Studios, so I can use my existing points and pay nothing (other than my current MF)?

After a great stay at VGF last week, my spouse and I were ready to buy at VGF to assure that we could stay there every May. (This happened to be right before VGF2 was announced. We traveled home convinced we just had to buy at VGF.)

However, after looking at the number of dedicated and lockoff Studios per DVC resort:

• BRV = 65
• CCV = 78
• BCV = 110
• BLT = 133
• OKW = 230
• BWV = 246
• VGF1 + VGF2 = 247 (approximate)
• AKV = 296
• PVB = 360
• SSR = 432

I've realized there's a reason PVB Studios seem relatively easy to book - there are so many of them.

With about 247 Studios, VGF1/VGF2 is going to become one of the larger DVC resorts, at least when it comes to Studios.

Yes, that's the part about when you go making a difference. And also I'd throw in if you want to stay there every time or not. For May it might be just fine to book it at 7 months. Plenty of time to consider the options too and if you eventually find you aren't able to get it then at that time you could sell the SSR and buy VGF.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

To answer your "Why?" question (and as I previously wrote):

Yes, I know VGF2 will be good for more than 40 years. I'm sure my kids will enjoy it but I doubt I'll be in any condition to still be going in 21 years. ​

I figure I'm going to get perhaps 20 years of enjoyment out of my next DVC purchase.

I was asking why you’d assume it will sell for $0.00 when you are finished enjoying it at the end of 20 years. If you assume it will have value still at that point (perhaps as much as you originally paid), then your analysis is way off. You can’t ignore (when comparing to renting over 20 years) that renting pays nothing back, but buying retains value half way through a contract life. It is real money. People will sell at the 20 year mark and put real cash in the bank. I think that has to be factored into your analysis.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Sure, for the last 3-4 months of the year, you have to (mostly) book your Home Resort. We already have the points at other DVC resorts for that. (F&WF at BWV, Christmas at Jambo.)

Really, what we want is May at VGF.

The question (for me) becomes, do I pay over $200 per point to stay at VGF1 or VGF2 each May? Or will VGF1/VGF2 become easier to book in May because of 200 additional Studios, so I can use my existing points and pay nothing (other than my current MF)?

After a great stay at VGF last week, my spouse and I were ready to buy at VGF to assure that we could stay there every May. (This happened to be right before VGF2 was announced. We traveled home convinced we just had to buy at VGF1.)

However, after looking at the number of dedicated and lockoff Studios per DVC resort:

• BRV = 65
• CCV = 78
• BCV = 110
• BLT = 133
• OKW = 230
• BWV = 246
• VGF1 + VGF2 = 247 (approximate)
• AKV = 296
• PVB = 360
• SSR = 432

I've realized there's a reason PVB Studios seem relatively easy to book - there are so many of them. (And none are lockoffs!)

With about 247 Studios, VGF1/VGF2 is going to become one of the larger DVC resorts, at least when it comes to Studios.

Because of the high cost per night, I don’t think a lot of your value minded individuals will even compete for VGF studios. I know you have your OKW, SSR, AKL, BWV owners and fans who prefer to stay there simply because they can stretch their points. Many of them won’t even throw their hat in the ring for VGF because it’s a point gobbler. I will, though.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

Because of the high cost per night, I don’t think a lot of your value minded individuals will even compete for VGF studios. I know you have your OKW, SSR, AKL, BWV owners and fans who prefer to stay there simply because they can stretch their points. Many of them won’t even throw their hat in the ring for VGF because it’s a point gobbler. I will, though.

You just described me to a tee but I wouldn't a trip once in a while to stay at VGF just to change it up.

 

[Nabas]

I was asking why you’d assume it will sell for $0.00 when you are finished enjoying it at the end of 20 years. If you assume it will have value still at that point (perhaps as much as you originally paid), then your analysis is way off. You can’t ignore (when comparing to renting over 20 years) that renting pays nothing back, but buying retains value half way through a contract life. It is real money. People will sell at the 20 year mark and put real cash in the bank. I think that has to be factored into your analysis.

You keep missing the point of my situation (not yours). My situation might not be applicable for anyone else.

It will be real money to someone else in 20 years. In 20 years, I (probably) will be too old to care about a few thousand dollars I spent 20 years before.

If it's just money in 20 years, I might as invest it now so that my kids can inherit it in 20 years. They are going to inherit a lot more if I invest that money wisely, rather than sink it into yet another DVC membership.

Again, the point is that I personally will get no more that 20 years of enjoyment out of any DVC purchase at this phase of my life. (I've been going to WDW for almost 40 years.)

You do your math however best applies to your personal situation. I'll do my math based on what best applies to my personal situation.

 

[Nabas]

Because of the high cost per night, I don’t think a lot of your value minded individuals will even compete for VGF studios. I know you have your OKW, SSR, AKL, BWV owners and fans who prefer to stay there simply because they can stretch their points. Many of them won’t even throw their hat in the ring for VGF because it’s a point gobbler. I will, though.

That's what I wonder.

Because of the high points per night and number of Studios, it's relatively easy to book a Studio at PVB.

With 200 more Studios at VGF (and because of the points required per night), I am beginning to think I'll have a decent chance of booking a Studio at VGF in May, once the excitement of staying at a "new" DVC dies down.

In a few years, booking at VGF might be more like PVB and less like BCV.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

You keep missing the point of my situation (not yours). My situation might not be applicable for anyone else.

It will be real money to someone else in 20 years. In 20 years, I (probably) will be too old to care about a few thousand dollars I spent 20 years before.

If it's just money in 20 years, I might as invest it now so that my kids can inherit it in 20 years. They are going to inherit a lot more if I invest that money wisely, rather than sink it into yet another DVC membership.

Again, the point is that I personally will get no more that 20 years of enjoyment out of any DVC purchase at this phase of my life. (I've been going to WDW for almost 40 years.)

You do your math however best applies to your personal situation. I'll do my math based on what best applies to my personal situation.

Yes, I did miss your point. I was commenting on this point of view that you expressed:

“VGF2 doesn't make much financial sense over $200 per point.”

It was not clear to me that you were expressing that this math was only pertinent to your unique situation, where cash 20 years from now is of no importance.

 

[sethschroeder]

To be clear, these rooms will go fast, real fast. Starting price around $220 per point with a $15 discount on a 200 point contract. My first post still stands. This is a safe DVC new sale that allows for a quick return, much needed cash flow after the COVID stagnation. They want people excited about DVC, like they were prior to COVID. This move many expected and even predicted, yet it is still pure genius.

But why? You keep saying quick return. They don't need a quick return in FY'22 when they will have 100% capacity in the parks, people with excess funds who haven't traveled in 2 years, and the 50th anniversary giving them pixie dust eyes.

If they want to make quick money they lower RIV and keep VGF high because VGF is going to sell regardless while RIV could sell out much quicker with lower prices.

The exception to this is if they announce by August that VGF will go on sale. Then I will think they are trying to cash in quick to get money dumped in to FY'21.