Hi, and welcome. Most people will tell you that if you don't want to go to VB specifically, don't buy there. The point costs is less now, but the maintenance fees are higher, and they are for the life of the contract.
Now, we own both onsite WDW and VB, and we use our VB points primarily at VB, but otherwise as well.
I imagine that there is always onsite availability somewhere at 7 months, and less as you get closer to the ressie date. Even SSR people are being told to book at 11 months and then switch. Now, that doesn't bode well for people who only own off site. However, I do think you will always have some availability, and even lots to choose from for various times. December, October, and I think February (Presidents week) will be 3 hardest times.
Best wishes to you!!
Bobbi
