Never before have a seen the touring plans so inaccurate!

[DPCummerbund]

Here's something I don't get. For the past several years, MK attendance has been hovering around 17 million per year. Growth has been about 2% per year. Yet to read this thread and others like it, it sounds like crowds are up 50-100%. We KNOW, factually, that increased attendance overall isn't really happening - you're simply not going to notice a 2% increase. So, why does it FEEL more crowded to everybody now?

 

[bauer1168]

Here's something I don't get. For the past several years, MK attendance has been hovering around 17 million per year. Growth has been about 2% per year. Yet to read this thread and others like it, it sounds like crowds are up 50-100%. We KNOW, factually, that increased attendance overall isn't really happening - you're simply not going to notice a 2% increase. So, why does it FEEL more crowded to everybody now?

I think for MK the construction on New Fantasyland has maybe made it feel more crowded in Famtasyland as areas where/are blocked off for construction

 

[MentalVacation]

We are here right now. (Sorry to anyone subjected to one of my daughter's epic meltdowns (2 so far....) Hence, it is nap time...

DHS has been busy but other than TSMM, we did everything we wanted to in a reasonable fashion. (Sat and Mon almost full days in park). I will say we were there well before RD and it was a mob scene compared to RD at other parks/in the past/in my (limited) experience with RD. LOL We arrived at least 30 minutes before official opening time Monday and it was swarmed already.

Our Monday AM RD strategy was simple: DH and son to Jedi signups. DD and I to TSMM for FP. We got there and pulled end of the night Fps (6-ish?) and the line quadrupled by the time we turned around to re-connect with DH. Son got options for Jedi training at 4:40 or 5:30 (i think) and went with 5:30 due to an ADR conflict. TSM passes were gone almost instantly (as I know is normal). We ended up giving our FP away because we had exhausted children who could not be expected to be there for RD to GET the FP and make it all the way until 6:00+ to use the FP….(well, at least one of them anyway). THIS is where the new FP+ rollout is screwing with the touring of the average 'non-testing' guest. Folks are having to either wait 120+ minutes to ride TSMM or get there at RD and stay until the end of the day to use the passes.

Today at Epcot we were there pre-RD for an ADR -- 8:15. We were at the TT FP kiosks by 9:15 and our time tonight for return is 4:15-5:15 (which we will very likely not make as my kids are presently sleeping in the room. FP were gone shortly thereafter. Soarin' was similar. So, again, for those not 'testing' or clueless about FP+/RD there is no way to avoid a 120 minute wait (which really isn't in Disney's best interest either. If I'm in that 120 minute line I'm not buying popcorn or drinks or shopping for pins/t-shirts/etc. Frankly, I've felt like we could not 'waste' any time shopping/browsing this trip because we have to be so militant about getting done what we can get done in the time we have allotted.

The one night I didn't feel like crowds/FP+ were affecting anything was the NSSHP -- we were there Tuesday, and while there were lots of people (yes, it is a theme park!) the trick or treat lines moved fast. We met Tink and Rosetta in about 15-20. Posted wait was 30. I met Jack Sparrow with about a 35-40 minute wait -- considering the stories on here I felt like that was a victory. We also nabbed an A+++ spot for the second parade at about the 30 minute mark right on the curb in front of the castle, and we had an 'okay' spot for the fireworks with about the same amount of leave time.

We did Blizzard Beach Tuesday as well - no problems there with any waits at all. Epcot was a mad house when we arrived Friday. I guess my view is that FP+ is the culprit for the 'non-testers'. Wait times of 120 minutes are just not going to happen. There is no single ride at WDW or elsewhere worth that. Unless my wait is in a beach chair with a frosty drink in my hand. Maybe if the end of the line was ACTUALLY Johnny Depp……

An aside which may be beating a dead horse -- while the app is handy when it works -- it rarely works. Less for my droid using tech savvy husband than for me on my iPhone. But the worst problem is that everyone everywhere is so buried in their phones as they walk that you are constantly dodging people who are not watching where they are going! I really like the large electric signs at Epcot that scroll through wait times and FP statuses for you so you don't have to go to the ride but can get a lay of the land -- without relying on the app. It is handy!!!

 

[wisblue]

The one night I didn't feel like crowds/FP+ were affecting anything was the NSSHP -- we were there Tuesday, and while there were lots of people (yes, it is a theme park!) the trick or treat lines moved fast.

Did you get candy in the Storybook Circus area? You might have been served by my youngest daughter, who is at WDW on a professional internship but took a shift at the Halloween Party for fun.

 

[maxiesmom]

Don't shoot me as I didn't read all 6 pages, but a quick check of Easy WDW showed the Magic Kingdom "Tentatively recommended for nighttime entertainment". Not as a good park to be in all day.

 

[MentalVacation]

Did you get candy in the Storybook Circus area? You might have been served by my youngest daughter, who is at WDW on a professional internship but took a shift at the Halloween Party for fun.

We did not get over there -- spent most of our time on the other side of the park trick or treating (and it was harder to navigate in the dark with a cape, heels, extremely tall hat and horribly uncomfortable tights than I was anticipating hahaha -- but as much as I was grouching pre-trip about paying 60+ to get candy I could buy for 10.00 at home -- the trick or treating was more fun than I anticipated -- and the lines moved super fast...all the CMs handing out candy were really fun and upbeat and in the 'spirit' when we saw them. We've met some great CMs on this trip -- including some 'off duty' Disney folk who were telling me about job listings at corporate that might suit my skillset. My husband is not too jazzed about Florida weather but I was listening. LOL I hope your daughter is enjoying her time at Disney -- I think it would be a fun place to work (most of the time! LOL)

 

[tfc3rid]

It's tough to predict because the FP+ testing certainly is having an impact on standby waits due to the smaller number of available FP- at the attractions.

Certainly, as we move into 2014, it will be a bit of learning curve regarding how it will all shake down, as FP- is phased out completely.

Will this be positive for standby? One would hope but it's neither here nor there...

Crowds are tough on weekends but midweek can be a good time to visit...

And don't complain about WDW crowds... If you think these 'offseason' crowds in FL are bad, don't bother going to Tokyo Disney Resort, ever... LOL

 

[Redbudlover]

I was there just two weeks ago with my DGD 7 and the crowds were minimal. I had no FP+ as we were staying at WL and we had a great time. We used regular FPs but crowds were lite . I say that - but - we used Josh's easy WDW. I am a planning nut and switched over to him a couple of years ago as he is great, the site is accurate and I love his commentary. I have been shocked a couple of times I went against his advice and was overwhelmed by crowds early in the day. You HAVE to get there at rope drop - and Josh is right about the South Americans filling the park. But scare mongers tick me off. I was able to get FPs for TSM on a FP+ for my mid December trip and I haven't gone on that ride in two years (and I go 4 times a year, too) because to get a morning FP I have to fight rope drop crowds and I don't like the run. I have one for this trip! I also have Soarin and Test Track and every other ride I want. Am I also going to be at the park right after rope drop? and at the park Josh recommends? You bet your bootie. I like the new changes - I can be sure I can go on the ride I want when generally I want to - AND I was able to get ADRs at restaurants I want because you have to give credit card guarantees. If the parks were as busy all the time as people on this thread are saying I couldn't have gotten any of the ADRs or FP+s I wanted.

 

[Dislover1991]

I was there just two weeks ago with my DGD 7 and the crowds were minimal. I had no FP+ as we were staying at WL and we had a great time. We used regular FPs but crowds were lite . I say that - but - we used Josh's easy WDW. I am a planning nut and switched over to him a couple of years ago as he is great, the site is accurate and I love his commentary. I have been shocked a couple of times I went against his advice and was overwhelmed by crowds early in the day. You HAVE to get there at rope drop - and Josh is right about the South Americans filling the park. But scare mongers tick me off. I was able to get FPs for TSM on a FP+ for my mid December trip and I haven't gone on that ride in two years (and I go 4 times a year, too) because to get a morning FP I have to fight rope drop crowds and I don't like the run. I have one for this trip! I also have Soarin and Test Track and every other ride I want. Am I also going to be at the park right after rope drop? and at the park Josh recommends? You bet your bootie. I like the new changes - I can be sure I can go on the ride I want when generally I want to - AND I was able to get ADRs at restaurants I want because you have to give credit card guarantees. If the parks were as busy all the time as people on this thread are saying I couldn't have gotten any of the ADRs or FP+s I wanted.

 

[daytondisney]

I have little doubt that Disney has always looked at those low crowd days that we covet the same way the airlines looked at their half empty flights in the 90's and 00's, and in similar fashion to the airlines I think they are working hard to make them a thing of the past.

Once upon a time a savvy traveler knew what time of year or what time of day they could do things like book cheap flights, hang around terminals to jump on nearly empty planes, consistently upgrade to first class, and do all kinds of things that passengers during peek hours and seasons couldn't dream of; it was very synonymous to Disney travelers that rely on the crowd calendars and touring plans to tour Disney parks more efficiently today. Those days are gone, since the airlines have made strategic changes (most of which their customers didn't like at all) that all but eliminated the half empty flights.

It's not hard to see that Disney has been doing the same thing. It's not hard to imagine a someone there looking at the same data that easywdw.com or touringplans.com uses and saying "we gotta fill these holes, get on the phone to some Brazilian travel agents, some high school soccer leagues, and conventioneers! Let's throw some pumpkins and wreaths up in the parks during the holidays as well!"

Between the changes Disney has done or is doing to keep their parks full and their changes to their virtual queue system that we really don't know much about yet, I don't envy the guys who are making their living telling people how to avoid getting bogged down in crowds at Disney right now.

perfectly stated

 

[daytondisney]

Here's something I don't get. For the past several years, MK attendance has been hovering around 17 million per year. Growth has been about 2% per year. Yet to read this thread and others like it, it sounds like crowds are up 50-100%. We KNOW, factually, that increased attendance overall isn't really happening - you're simply not going to notice a 2% increase. So, why does it FEEL more crowded to everybody now?

The entire 2% are driving mobility scooters - 931 more per day

 

[lindsroc]

The entire 2% are driving mobility scooters

At least!

 

[daytondisney]

Anecdotal evidence about crowds:

As I said in another thread, it "felt" crowded at the parks, more specifically at pinch points at the various parks...

However, we drive and park. There were fewer lanes open (even right before rope drop), virtually no lines, and we consistently parked in the closer lots...

 

[Samdari]

Here on a recommended Thursday at Magic Kingdom, going on noon, the wait times are:

Astro Orbiter 20 min
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 20 min 12:45pm-1:45pm
Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin 30 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Dumbo the Flying Elephant 25 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Enchanted Tales with Belle 40 min
Haunted Mansion 15 min
It's a small world 10 min
Jungle Cruise 55 min 12:50pm-1:50pm
Mad Tea Party 10 min
Mickey's PhilharMagic 5 min
Monsters, Inc. Laugh Floor 20 min
Peter Pan's Flight Closed for Refurbishment
Pirates of the Caribbean 10 min
Prince Charming Regal Carrousel 0 min
Space Mountain 30 min 12:35pm-1:35pm
Splash Mountain 10 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Stitch's Great Escape! 10 min
The Barnstormer 20 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
The Magic Carpets of Aladdin 20 min
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh25 min 1:00pm-2:00pm
Tomorrowland Speedway 20 min
Under the Sea ~ Journey of The Little Mermaid 20 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress 5 min

Just curious Josh, where did you get these numbers?

Are they from Disney's wait time app? Because last week, and Thursday in particular, those were wildly different from what was posted at the rides. I checked the app - Town Square Mickey has a 10 minute wait? Rush over there from tomorrowland. 50 minute wait. Get a fastpass. Rush over to BTMRR - app says there is a short wait there. Get there to be standing at that ride Thursday at noon. 40 minute wait. Fastpasses in the 2-3 pm range.

Not trying to complain about your crowd calendar here - was very happy with my decisions to go to the MK on Tues and Thurs last week, as crowds seemed the moderate I expected. But several times I tried to use electronic means to check wait times, and while the electronic versions usually agreed with each other, they were horribly mismatched with what was posted at the rides.

 

[meredith1]

There is a trend toward fall breaks now in some school districts, apparently. I read that most Florida schools have a week long fall break in October. That could definitely have affected the crowds you are seeing. I know spring breaks really bump up the numbers in March & April. Just a thought. It really is true that there isn't a "low attendance" time anymore. Just crowded and CRAZYcrowded!!

Texas use to have a Fall break the first or second week of October but, I believe last year was the first year in a very long time that they cut the Fall Break out because they're starting school later in the year now.

 

[Q-man]

Anecdotal evidence about crowds:

As I said in another thread, it "felt" crowded at the parks, more specifically at pinch points at the various parks...

However, we drive and park. There were fewer lanes open (even right before rope drop), virtually no lines, and we consistently parked in the closer lots...

I've seen this explained as the walkways feel about the same in low crowds from guests being quickly in and out of rides vs being in line and out of sight for 45 mins or more.

 

[Orsino]

Here's something I don't get. For the past several years, MK attendance has been hovering around 17 million per year. Growth has been about 2% per year. Yet to read this thread and others like it, it sounds like crowds are up 50-100%. We KNOW, factually, that increased attendance overall isn't really happening - you're simply not going to notice a 2% increase. So, why does it FEEL more crowded to everybody now?

Hypothesis: With the implementation of Fastpass and subsequent expansion of Fastpass fewer people are waiting in standby lines while still maintaining the same (or more) wait times. In other words, back in the old days a 90 minute wait time meant 90 minutes worth of people were waiting in that line. Touring plans cites that for Toy Story there is a 4.5 minute wait for each 100 people in front of you. Therefore a 90 minute wait means there are 2000 people 'in line.' Now, with fastpass, a 90 minute standby wait time means half that (or less) are waiting in line. So if only 1000 people are in line, that means 1000 people are walking around making the park 'feel' more crowded. Multiply that by a couple more headline attractions and voila, a couple extra thousand people milling about instead of waiting in line.

Anecdotally, think about all those queue areas that don't get used much anymore. If those queues were full of people, then the walkways would be much less congested.


ETA: Scooped by one minute!

 

[Sydnerella]

Good summary! I think it might be easy to do in the future, though, I may have to get in the business:

January : 10 out of 10
February : 10 out of 10
March : 10 out of 10
April : 10 out of 10
May : 10 out of 10
June : 10 out of 10
July : 10 out of 10
August : 10 out of 10
September : 10 out of 10
October : 10 out of 10
November : 10 out of 10
December : 10 out of 10

I think it is more accurate to state that the crowd calendar has likely not changed much. It might be that the impact of the FP+ system is different on a day with a 5 crowd level than it used to be.

Between 10-11 and 10-18 crowds were "light" to us as we are used to spring break crowds and EasyWDW was spot on with best park days. They nor anyone could predict the impacts of tinkering with FP+ and FP allotments other than to say it could end up being sucky sometimes... like FP glitch day at DHS 10-16...

 

[travelinggnomes]

I know this thread has been buried for awhile, but I found it through "search". I can tell you as a midwesterner... our fall breaks HAVE changed! Many schools in our area have moved toward an "adjusted" calendar, which gives us TWO weeks off in the fall, TWO-THREE weeks off in the winter and TWO weeks off in the spring! I know of 27 people, to be exact, that went to Disney on their fall break. That would have NEVER happened before. They would have gone on Spring break instead. In fact, almost every family I know, went SOMEWHERE on fall break this year. It is becoming the Midwest's new "spring" break. Better weather, lower crowds, and better deals. I do think that this is going to start affecting Disney.