Never before have a seen the touring plans so inaccurate!

[ajfd]

Now I am getting "Standby Only" on the MDE and it is not showing up via the browser.

Maybe there were only two spots left for those times?

 

[bdklein]

This is not the only reason we are going to skip next year. The main reason is that I have no desire to plan out every moment of my trips, months ahead of time. I can no longer vacation at WDW like I used to, on the fly. We are a dual working family with two little kids, both in activities. My entire daily life is planned out to the minute and I have no desire to do that on vacation. It is supposed to be fun and relaxing. Not work and stressful. I don't know what park I am going to until the night before and we don't know what ride we want to ride first until we are on our way to that park. That is 1/2 the fun for us. Being spontaneous. We don't usually get to do that every other day, so it is so fun to do it while on vacation.

I'm with you 100%.

 

[Dallas_Lady]

I have a feeling that all of the changes are giving those who make up the calendars fits. It's impossible to predict what Disney will do next so how can they predict the crowds? Everything has gone haywire lately.

I agree. All those crowd calendars are predictions based on historical trends. Everything we're seeing right now is new. Nothing is certain anymore.

I'm not trying to be reactionary, but like many others, I am also rethinking our trip. It's just too much money to spend for things to be so up in the air.

 

[LiveToTravelNicely]

IMHO, It seems rather rude to attack the writer of a voluntary website when he tries to explain his crowd predictions and his rationale. I understand the frustration of getting to a park and it is not what you expected. I just looked at the October Easywdw crowd calendar and it clearly had MK as the third out of four park for the day. So, probably should have followed his advice and gone to HS or AK before launching an attack of a person who is actually very thoughtful to create that information to begin with.

The first time we journeyed down to WDW, I felt that the "5" that was predicted by touringplans.com for MK on a Thursday in July was not what I expected. We simply left and went to Downtown Disney and then hopped to another park (I think we ended up at Epcot). When we came home, I told people that my expectations for the crowds that day were not correct, but I certainly didn't bash touringplans to them!

When I found the easywdw.com for our next trip, I was very impressed because instead of just relying on an arbitrary number for each, he actually took the time to write out explanations for his ratings the way they were.

I hope that Josh continues to make his website and not focus on the few negative comments that come out here.

 

[wisblue]

Now I am getting "Standby Only" on the MDE and it is not showing up via the browser.

Maybe there were only two spots left for those times?

I just tried again through the website at 9:55 AM EDT and Test Track was offered in 2 of the 4 options.

Soarin was available for all of them.

BTW, I also looked at MDE for the wait times at MK, which had AM EMH at 8 AM today. If the wait times on MDE are anywhere near accurate, the park is not that crowded. Even the Mountains all have waits of 15 minutes or less with FP return times less than a half hour out.

Anyone who was there at 8 AM could have done a lot of things already and still be enjoying short wait times and lots of FP availability.

 

[Gr8t Fan]

IMHO, It seems rather rude to attack the writer of a voluntary website when he tries to explain his crowd predictions and his rationale. I understand the frustration of getting to a park and it is not what you expected. I just looked at the October Easywdw crowd calendar and it clearly had MK as the third out of four park for the day. So, probably should have followed his advice and gone to HS or AK before launching an attack of a person who is actually very thoughtful to create that information to begin with.

The first time we journeyed down to WDW, I felt that the "5" that was predicted by touringplans.com for MK on a Thursday in July was not what I expected. We simply left and went to Downtown Disney and then hopped to another park (I think we ended up at Epcot). When we came home, I told people that my expectations for the crowds that day were not correct, but I certainly didn't bash touringplans to them!

When I found the easywdw.com for our next trip, I was very impressed because instead of just relying on an arbitrary number for each, he actually took the time to write out explanations for his ratings the way they were.

I hope that Josh continues to make his website and not focus on the few negative comments that come out here.

THIS!!!! I know that some websites charge $ for crowd calendars/predictions, but easywdw.com does not and Josh seems to put a lot of work into his crowd calendars.

 

[PEC]

Josh posted a thing on his blog recently comparing his predictions with Touring Plans', and the crowds, and he was SO much more accurate. I just checked in yesterday morning but honestly I think the crowds have been great. At F&W yesterday every booth we went to was either walk-up or 2-3 people in front of us, and today at AK we walked late into FOTLK with no problem, the safari was 10mins once and 15mins another time, Kali Rapids was only 30mins in the middle of the day, and Everest had such a short wait that they closed the single rider lane. I based both days on easywdw's calendars and I'm loving it!

Who is Josh and what is his blog? What we uber planners have to understand is with FP+ Disney has changed the way they do business and the downtrace is the touring plans will have to also. If you were in the wrong park by crowd size based on a non-Disney plan I think you need to vent with Touring Plan's not Disney. They are the ones that messed you up.
Now for Disney if it is across the board a huge increase in crowd size, yes some people may not go for a while but we have to remember from a business view point big crowds year round are good not bad. Until the pendulum goes the other way and too many are not going because of crowd size then this is not a problem in Disney's eyes. Look at this from a business sense what should Disney do? Raise rate? Did that and no impact on crowd size. Limit crowd size when the economy is "OK" so when the next recession hits no money is set aside to ride out the recession (that goes by the name bankruptcy court). Look I own 1 stock in Disney so I am no big Market Mover for them but I do understand this is not a Disney problem when lots of people are buying their product.

 

[kirby428]

I agree. All those crowd calendars are predictions based on historical trends. Everything we're seeing right now is new. Nothing is certain anymore.

I'm not trying to be reactionary, but like many others, I am also rethinking our trip. It's just too much money to spend for things to be so up in the air.

This year is not a good template upon which to base present and future plans and predictions. Number 1 issue is the paper FP and the FP+ are both being allowed for use. No one has seen what it will look and feel like when only the FP+ can be used. Attendance surge is happening this year due to an assortment of reasons that can be debated, but I wanted to be among the folks who tested the magic bands too. Did you notice the expansion of monorail resort VILLAS? There is an expansion this year of FL with a major coaster not yet completed. Everyone wants an ADR for BOG. Bigger buses are on the way. EMH may be on the way OUT THE DOOR. There are new ADR and cancel rules. Finally, Disney has successfully boosted attendance for those low attendance windows on the calendar by inventing a host of special things going on outside and inside the parks that serve to fill rooms and sell tickets. A marathon a day keeps the red ink away...EH? Lets name but a few MNSSHP, MVMCP, NIGHT OF JOY, POP WARNER, FLYING SAUCER NITE, FOOD AND WINE, FLOWERS, DCI, and next year maybe TRIPLE FP+ WEEK. Crowd predictions are all bogus this year and won't be fixed until WDW settles the change dust.

 

[surferdave]

This year is not a good template upon which to base present and future plans and predictions. Number 1 issue is the paper FP and the FP+ are both being allowed for use. No one has seen what it will look and feel like when only the FP+ can be used. Attendance surge is happening this year due to an assortment of reasons that can be debated, but I wanted to be among the folks who tested the magic bands too. Did you notice the expansion of monorail resort VILLAS? There is an expansion this year of FL with a major coaster not yet completed. Everyone wants an ADR for BOG. Bigger buses are on the way. EMH may be on the way OUT THE DOOR. There are new ADR and cancel rules. Finally, Disney has successfully boosted attendance for those low attendance windows on the calendar by inventing a host of special things going on outside and inside the parks that serve to fill rooms and sell tickets. A marathon a day keeps the red ink away...EH? Lets name but a few MNSSHP, MVMCP, NIGHT OF JOY, POP WARNER, FLYING SAUCER NITE, FOOD AND WINE, FLOWERS, DCI, and next year maybe TRIPLE FP+ WEEK. Crowd predictions are all bogus this year and won't be fixed until WDW settles the change dust.

Good summary! I think it might be easy to do in the future, though, I may have to get in the business:

January : 10 out of 10
February : 10 out of 10
March : 10 out of 10
April : 10 out of 10
May : 10 out of 10
June : 10 out of 10
July : 10 out of 10
August : 10 out of 10
September : 10 out of 10
October : 10 out of 10
November : 10 out of 10
December : 10 out of 10

 

[wisblue]

Good summary! I think it might be easy to do in the future, though, I may have to get in the business:

January : 10 out of 10
February : 10 out of 10
March : 10 out of 10
April : 10 out of 10
May : 10 out of 10
June : 10 out of 10
July : 10 out of 10
August : 10 out of 10
September : 10 out of 10
October : 10 out of 10
November : 10 out of 10
December : 10 out of 10

If you were working for Disney, that should be your goal. Their goal is to maximize their profits, not to provide wait free vacations for people who want to ride major attractions 5 or more times per day. Disney is going to make more on 5 families riding an attraction once each than on one family riding over and over. If the crowds get so big so often that some people stop going, and there aren't other people to take their places, they will have to do something about it.

I'll bet the folks at Universal or your nearest Six Flags park would love to do the same thing.

 

[Planogirl]

I just checked wait times and if those are accurate they look much better today than they have in a while. There are even fastpasses available for everything but TSM and Soarin' and Test Track (but these last two seem to have just run out). It looks like those three will remain problematic.

I think that the crowds have just been an aberration, maybe even for Disney.

 

[mesaboy2]

Who is Josh and what is his blog? What we uber planners have to understand is with FP+ Disney has changed the way they do business and the downtrace is the touring plans will have to also. If you were in the wrong park by crowd size based on a non-Disney plan I think you need to vent with Touring Plan's not Disney. They are the ones that messed you up. Now for Disney if it is across the board a huge increase in crowd size, yes some people may not go for a while but we have to remember from a business view point big crowds year round are good not bad. Until the pendulum goes the other way and too many are not going because of crowd size then this is not a problem in Disney's eyes. Look at this from a business sense what should Disney do? Raise rate? Did that and no impact on crowd size. Limit crowd size when the economy is "OK" so when the next recession hits no money is set aside to ride out the recession (that goes by the name bankruptcy court). Look I own 1 stock in Disney so I am no big Market Mover for them but I do understand this is not a Disney problem when lots of people are buying their product.

Poster notfrostyjosh equals EasyWDW.com. Dude's pretty awesome IMHO.

 

[LiveToTravelNicely]

Poster notfrostyjosh equals EasyWDW.com. Dude's pretty awesome IMHO.

AGREE!

 

[AuroraRora]

I'd be lost planning my trips without Josh's blog - today he recommended MK despite it being a break from the norm due to morning EMH... spot on as usual! We got here at 8am, rode Buzz x 3, Space x 2 (went back a 3rd time but it was down), Small World, Stitch, Phillharmagic, Haunted Mansion x 2, shopped, met Pooh and Tigger, met Stitch, and then wandered slowly over to BOG because we still had 15mins or so until our 11am FP+. Perfect!!

 

[delmar411]

I just checked wait times and if those are accurate they look much better today than they have in a while. There are even fastpasses available for everything but TSM and Soarin' and Test Track (but these last two seem to have just run out). It looks like those three will remain problematic.

I think that the crowds have just been an aberration, maybe even for Disney.

TSM had no fp+ available.for.today, yesterday. TT ran out of paper fps as we walked up.to the machine at 10:15(and we never were able to.snag a fp+ time yesterday or today), Soarin was out of paper fps before we arrived at 10am, I'd assume they were out shortly after opening.

TT and Soarin had 90min waits at 10:15 as.well.

 

[poohbear13]

I totally get this!!

I also love planning; so I struggled to figure out exactly why I am not happy about all these changes that actually facilitate the planning that I love so much ..... until I realized that it's because I can no longer plan because I choose to; I have to do it because I feel if things go wrong and I haven't, that I can only blame myself. Whereas in the past you could choose what aspects of the trip you wanted to plan and where you wanted to wing it or have room to change things up on the fly, suddenly that is gone. While I sort of understand where those are coming from who say you don't have to plan, I think you really do now. Failure to plan now puts a lot more at risk than it did in the past.

I'm not ready to ditch the Disney trips just yet, at least not until we have given it time and given it a try and hopefully a lot of the problems will have been addressed by then. I'm just not sure that I want to do it every year anymore, especially if things continue as they presently stand

Sorry, this is totally off topic, but needs to be said, Congratulations on not smoking!!!!!!

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Thanks for the kind words but no defense is necessary.

I can appreciate the sentiment that it "feels" crowded at Disney World. And you could certainly make the argument that it is indeed crowded. But relatively speaking, it's not.

When making a crowd calendar with a scale of 1 - 10, there have to be 1s, 2s, 3s, and 4s just like there are 8s, 9s, and 10s. The crowd levels you see on the site compare crowds to the previous six months and the future six months. So crowds two or three years ago are of no consequence. Certainly if you want to compare crowds from 2010, in the middle of a global economic downturn, it would be much less crowded just about every day of the year. But that information is useless when you're trying to plan a future vacation because those days are no longer reality.

Unfortunately, the Mickey's Party schedule really messes with crowds in September - December and we see much wilder fluctuations than most other months where the theme parks have more standardized schedules. If you try to go to Magic Kingdom on a date with a 10pm or later close and both nighttime spectaculars, it's going to be overwhelmingly busier than a Party date. Likewise, if you go to the other parks on a Party date, those parks are going to be much busier than days when Magic Kingdom is open late. People like to go to Magic Kingdom when they can stay until 10pm and see Electrical Parade and Wishes. And that's why it's so busy.

October is certainly a month that is busier here in 2013 than it was in past years, thanks more to South America than any domestic factors. South America and other foreign visitation are really what drives crowds these days. B

But no, there are far fewer people visiting the four theme parks this week than any week from late May through the last week in August, or any major holiday week, or the month that comprises spring break, etc. 60 minute waits at Magic Kingdom for a couple attractions are not that bad.

Here on a recommended Thursday at Magic Kingdom, going on noon, the wait times are:

Astro Orbiter 20 min
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 20 min 12:45pm-1:45pm
Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin 30 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Dumbo the Flying Elephant 25 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Enchanted Tales with Belle 40 min
Haunted Mansion 15 min
It's a small world 10 min
Jungle Cruise 55 min 12:50pm-1:50pm
Mad Tea Party 10 min
Mickey's PhilharMagic 5 min
Monsters, Inc. Laugh Floor 20 min
Peter Pan's Flight Closed for Refurbishment
Pirates of the Caribbean 10 min
Prince Charming Regal Carrousel 0 min
Space Mountain 30 min 12:35pm-1:35pm
Splash Mountain 10 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Stitch's Great Escape! 10 min
The Barnstormer 20 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
The Magic Carpets of Aladdin 20 min
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh25 min 1:00pm-2:00pm
Tomorrowland Speedway 20 min
Under the Sea ~ Journey of The Little Mermaid 20 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress 5 min


Those times are minimal. As I've mentioned in the past, it's a lot more important to go to the most recommended park when crowd levels are low because the daily fluctuations are so much greater.

To the original poster, I'm sorry your trip didn't go as planned. But I can assure easywdw is not the cause of that pain and the crowd numbers this week are accurate.

I wish the crowds these days were lower too.

 

[chilly2336]

After reading through the pages of this thread I feel the need to offer an opinion.

My wife and I visited WDW from 10/6-12 for our anniversary and for the first time without kids. We were hoping for October crowds that we saw in 2010 but knew that probably wouldn't be the case. We were given Magicbands and also made FP+ reservations for each day based upon easywdw park recommendations.

The longest we waited in a stand-by line was about 55 minutes for TSM. Everything else was much less than that for us (we did see stand-by lines over 60 min at times). While it "felt" crowded walking around the parks and exiting at close wait times were very reasonable and we rode every major ride that we wanted multiple times during our visit.

It all comes down to expectations. We have tried hard in the past to visit during low crowd periods and have been very pleased. We realize now that Disney is doing what any good company should do for it's shareholders. Seeing crowds continue to increase tells me that people, overall, are satisfied with the Disney experience.

If anyone would like to see real crowds I would suggest going between Christmas and New Years. We did it ONCE for my son's baseball tournament and ended up walking around videotaping the extended queues that we had never seen before. Ever since we have seen that experience our perspective has definitely changed and we realize how lucky we are to be able to travel during times when the overall crowd level isn't above an 8.

For those used to lower crowd levels hang in there and just enjoy your vacation knowing that you probably won't be able to ride major rides multiple times in a day. And, if you desire, make plans to go somewhere else next year. Those of us who will continue to visit WDW in the future will much appreciate it.

 

[Dislover1991]

Thanks for the kind words but no defense is necessary.

I can appreciate the sentiment that it "feels" crowded at Disney World. And you could certainly make the argument that it is indeed crowded. But relatively speaking, it's not.

When making a crowd calendar with a scale of 1 - 10, there have to be 1s, 2s, 3s, and 4s just like there are 8s, 9s, and 10s. The crowd levels you see on the site compare crowds to the previous six months and the future six months. So crowds two or three years ago are of no consequence. Certainly if you want to compare crowds from 2010, in the middle of a global economic downturn, it would be much less crowded just about every day of the year. But that information is useless when you're trying to plan a future vacation because those days are no longer reality.

Unfortunately, the Mickey's Party schedule really messes with crowds in September - December and we see much wilder fluctuations than most other months where the theme parks have more standardized schedules. If you try to go to Magic Kingdom on a date with a 10pm or later close and both nighttime spectaculars, it's going to be overwhelmingly busier than a Party date. Likewise, if you go to the other parks on a Party date, those parks are going to be much busier than days when Magic Kingdom is open late. People like to go to Magic Kingdom when they can stay until 10pm and see Electrical Parade and Wishes. And that's why it's so busy.

October is certainly a month that is busier here in 2013 than it was in past years, thanks more to South America than any domestic factors. South America and other foreign visitation are really what drives crowds these days. B

But no, there are far fewer people visiting the four theme parks this week than any week from late May through the last week in August, or any major holiday week, or the month that comprises spring break, etc. 60 minute waits at Magic Kingdom for a couple attractions are not that bad.

Here on a recommended Thursday at Magic Kingdom, going on noon, the wait times are:

Astro Orbiter 20 min
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 20 min 12:45pm-1:45pm
Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin 30 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Dumbo the Flying Elephant 25 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Enchanted Tales with Belle 40 min
Haunted Mansion 15 min
It's a small world 10 min
Jungle Cruise 55 min 12:50pm-1:50pm
Mad Tea Party 10 min
Mickey's PhilharMagic 5 min
Monsters, Inc. Laugh Floor 20 min
Peter Pan's Flight Closed for Refurbishment
Pirates of the Caribbean 10 min
Prince Charming Regal Carrousel 0 min
Space Mountain 30 min 12:35pm-1:35pm
Splash Mountain 10 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
Stitch's Great Escape! 10 min
The Barnstormer 20 min 12:20pm-1:20pm
The Magic Carpets of Aladdin 20 min
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh25 min 1:00pm-2:00pm
Tomorrowland Speedway 20 min
Under the Sea ~ Journey of The Little Mermaid 20 min 12:30pm-1:30pm
Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress 5 min


Those times are minimal. As I've mentioned in the past, it's a lot more important to go to the most recommended park when crowd levels are low because the daily fluctuations are so much greater.

To the original poster, I'm sorry your trip didn't go as planned. But I can assure easywdw is not the cause of that pain and the crowd numbers this week are accurate.

I wish the crowds these days were lower too.

After reading this, I think we'll stick with your calendar for our touring schedule. I would love to take advantage of those 4 extra hours at MK on 12/16 but when I think about it, the park will probably be much quieter on 12/20 when there isn't a party. Although the crowds will be about a 9-10...i'm worried about that!

 

[agavegirl1]

Thanks Josh for that helpful explanation. I will be at WDW next year at exactly the same time. It will be interesting to see how that compares to my trip in 2010. I'm not going to change my dates as I can see October will still be relatively less crowded and will continue to use your crowd predictions to plan my trip.

I follow your touring plans (modified for adults only) and, in the past, it has been fantastic!