Reserve your home resort at 11 months out. In 2014, for Nov 5-9, the same Wednesday through Sunday you desire to get, VWL, BLT and VGF had some of the nights already full in all room categories, particularly the Thursday through Sat. In fact, all resorts had some nights full, even SSR other than 1BRs for Friday night, one of the only two nights of the year (NYE is the other) when SSR faces any risk of being booked before 7 months out. As to reasons, Jersey week is one but it is also a popular time for other school closings for teacher conferences, it is the last weekend of Food & Wine, Saturday is the Food & Wine half marathon, Christmas decorations in MK begin that weekend, as does Mickey's after hours Christmas party, and points are still in the second lowest season.